How can you tell the conventional wisdom that’s solidifying? One way is to take a look at late night comedian jokes listed on the web on sites such as this.
For more than a century American humorists and comedians have been conventional political wisdom barometers. Those who effectively used humor to reflect public perceptions in the 20th century included: Will Rogers, Bob Hope, Johnny Carson and several others. With the explosion of cable television with its zillion channels, there are now several “big name” comics whose punchlines can give tips to a growing consensus (or just a good, old fashioned cheap laugh opportunity that was too good to resist).
October 2008’\s jokes underscore a fact: if McCain does pull of an upset, given the fact that in 1948 there wasn’t Internet, talk radio, 24/7 cable news coverage, blogs publishing around the clock and websites, it will be a victory that will dwarf Democrat Harry Truman’s 1948 upset win against GOPer Thomas Dewey. There are now many info outlets spreading a conventiional wisdom (even it talk radio tries to combat it).
Some other assumptions that coat currrent jokes: an age issue with McCain, Obama being overpublicized…and more. What’s notable: NBC’s Jay Leno seems to have more jokes pegged to a McCain loss than Letterman, who zings McCain brutally but doesn’t do as many jokes assuming McCain will lose. This could be due to him believing McCain could win, or due to a desire to separate himself from Leno’s almost certain list of McCain-is-losing jokes, or due to his long friendship with and respect for McCain, who has been a truly funny guest on his show over the years. Leno has the most jokes on the list. Some other late night comics offer fewer but more potent zingers.
Read the jokes and see if you can spot the conventional wisdom assumption alluded to or shattered by the joke’s punch line. Some jokes picked out 4 U:
Oct. 31:
“Hey, I watched ‘American Idol’ last night, the Barack Obama show. Did you all see Barack Obama’s infomercial? It was called “American Stories.” You know why they called it “American Stories”? I guess it sounded better than ‘Barack Obama Running Out the Clock.'” –Jay Leno
“The show was very well done. I got to admit, I especially liked the end, where Barack rose to the heavens on a cloud. Wasn’t that unbelievable?” –Jay Leno
….”Today, John McCain campaigned in the Ohio town of Defiance. Next comes Anger, then, finally, Acceptance.” –Jay Leno
….”John McCain was on Larry King’s show last night, and it got kind of awkward when Larry had to tell John McCain that 72 percent of his ex-wives were for Obama.” –David Letterman
“But on that show, Larry King and John McCain looked like two guys who would be fighting over Cloris Leachman.” –David Letterman
“But here’s what I like about John McCain. He’s an optimist. Always sees the glass as half full of his teeth.” –David Letterman
“And how about last night, when Barack Obama had his half hour infomercial TV special. I mean, thank God! It’s about time this guy got some media coverage, don’t you think?” –David Letterman
“And did you hear what happened down in Washington, DC, earlier today? Guards had to wrestle and apprehend an intruder who was trying to jump over the White House fence. Nice try, Hillary.” –David Letterman
“A lot of issues going to be decided on election day in John McCain’s home state of Arizona. True story. Voters are being asked to decide whether there should be a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage. Yeah. McCain’s even using the issue in an attack ad that says ‘Obama-Biden: they share positions together.'” –Conan O’Brien
“Obama is ahead in every major poll. One online gambling site has him as a seven to one favorite to win. They’re saying the only way Obama could lose this election right now is if they made him bowl for it.” –Jimmy Kimmel
Oct. 30:
“Earlier tonight, Barack Obama had a half-hour television special. Did anybody happen to see it? It’s a lot of money, ladies and gentlemen. Don’t kid yourself. A half-hour, prime-time network television. I mean, it costs a lot of dough. And they say it was the most money spent by a Democrat for a half an hour since Eliot Spitzer.” –David Letterman
“Yesterday, in Washington, I don’t know if you heard about this, the Secret Service arrested a man who climbed over the White House fence. True story, yeah. Yeah, the Secret Service told the man, ‘Get back here, Mr. President. You have two more months.'” –Conan O’Brien
…..”Think about it. Just six days from today, we’ll know for sure exactly which candidate will be suing the other for voter fraud.” –Jay Leno
…
“And while CBS, NBC and Fox were showing the Barack Obama ad, ABC was showing ‘Pushing Daisies,’ which I believe is the name of the McCain ad, if I’m not mistaken.” –Jay Leno
“A moment in history. It was on this day in 1846 that the Donner party left for California. You know what happened there. Everything went wrong. They wound up eating each other, kind of like what’s going on in the McCain campaign right now.” –Jay Leno
….”More Republicans endorsing Barack Obama. Great. Now Republicans will have to suppress their own turnout.” –Stephen Colbert
Oct. 29:
“Sarah Palin told a crowd yesterday, when she campaigns, she doesn’t wear her wedding ring because the shape of it hurts her finger when she’s shaking a lot of hands. And Bill said to Hillary, ‘See! I told you I wasn’t making it up.'” –Jay Leno
“Are you excited and tired of the campaign? Excited and tired? One week to go. One week from today is the election. … We have the elections next week, and then the winner of that election meets Hillary in the finals.” –David Letterman
“Here’s how it works. Election is Tuesday. And then Wednesday is the first day of Sarah Palin’s 2012 campaign.” –David Letterman
…”Republicans are warning voters right now that if Barack Obama is elected president, the Democrats will control all three branches of the government. That’s what they’re saying, yeah. John McCain said this would be dangerous, Dick Cheney said it would be expensive, And Sarah Palin said, we have three branches of government?” –Conan O’Brien
“Tough news for John McCain, though. John McCain still trailing in the polls with just a week to go. CNN reported just a few hours ago that the polls in Pennsylvania show little movement for John McCain. At this point, the only way for McCain to show movement involves eating a bowl of Raisin Bran.” –Conan O’Brien
“Now, this is interesting, Barack Obama is now encouraging his supporters to take election day off so they can help him get out the vote. Yeah. And a lot of Americans said they were already planning to take that day off, because they don’t have a job.” –Conan O’Brien
There are a lot more on that site’s list (which is updated daily). To read them all, click on the link above.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.