Several of the more experienced talking heads remarked earlier this week that state polls tend to lag a fair bit behind the national polling. This makes sense, as the major polling outfits are hitting the national numbers on daily and weekly roundups, but state specific polls take longer and are not done as frequently. Over the last week we’ve seen the Palin Bounce apparently turn into the Palin Blurp nationally, (likely owed in large part to mounting concerns over the economy) but now the swing state numbers seem to be lining up in the same general direction.
October 1, 2008 – Obama Over 50 Percent In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds; Debate, Palin’s Fade, Economy Put Democrat On Top
* Florida: Obama up 49 – 43 percent pre-debate and 51 – 43 percent post-debate;
* Ohio: Obama up 49 – 42 percent pre-debate and 50 – 42 percent post-debate;
* Pennsylvania: Obama ahead 49 – 43 percent pre-debate and 54 – 39 percent post-debate. Pre-debate surveys ended at 8 p.m. Friday with post-debate surveys Saturday-Monday.
Seeing Obama’s national numbers pop over 50% for a few straight days was probably disquieting to supporters of John McCain, but these swing state numbers may start pushing people toward their panic rooms. If a candidate can take – and more importantly, hold – numbers on the North side of 50 for a sustained period in these areas, the picture grows grim for their opponent. While nothing is technically impossible, it’s difficult to imagine any scenario where either candidate can lose Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio and still make it to 270. Of course, before anyone gets too excitied, we’ll want to see results from other polling organizations and another week or two of tracking before we begin to think these will hold until November.