As we’ve noted on this site for the past four years, when a poll shows one side slipping, the partisans sometimes reply by saying that poll is wrong, and the methodology is flawed. And that’s just the argument now being made by GOP Presidential candidate Sen. John McCain’s campaign:
On the heels of a new Washington Post-ABC News poll that showed Barack Obama leading John McCain 52 percent to 43 percent nationally, the Arizona senator’s campaign convened a conference call today insisting that the survey was an “outlier”.
Bill McInturff, the lead pollster for McCain, insisted that the campaign’s internal data showed none of the “volatility” present in recent public polling, arguing that the race has been within the margin of error for the last several weeks.
At the crux of McInturff’s argument was the fact that the Democratic party identification in the Post poll was 16 points higher than the Republican identification — a far larger margin than the Democratic ID edge in other recent public polling.
Jon Cohen, the Post’s polling director, explained that the actual party ID numbers among likely voters had Democrats plus six points. It was only when people who offer no original party ID were asked whether they leaned one direction or the other that the number jumped to Democrats +16. (ABC’s polling director has more here.)
There’s more so read the whole piece.
If polls turn around and show McCain leading you won’t read about the McCain campaign disputing the poll’s methodology. The tactic of questioning the methodology of an unfavorable poll came up from time to time with candidates from both parties during the primary season. A poll that makes a candidate look bad is picked apart and questioned. A poll that makes a candidate look good is touted as proof that there’s momentum. In fact, a slew of polls show Obama picking up support this week (which could vanish just as quickly). Go HERE and HERE.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.