Two new polls now show Democratic Presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama slowly on the ascent in his political battle with Republican Sen. John McCain, who had been ahead in both polls.
A new Zogby poll has Democratic Presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama regaining the lead in his battle with Republican Sen. John McCain — in a survey that finds Democrats starting to come home and McCain is being seen as running the more negative campaign.
This is a major — and substantial — reversal of a poll taken last month.
And Gallup’s latest daily tracking also shows a slight gain for Obama.
Zogby reports:
Democrats coming home and an increase of support from women helped Democrat Barack Obama take a 47%-45% lead over Republican John McCain, the latest Reuters/Zogby nationwide telephone survey of likely voters.
The poll, conducted of 1,008 likely voters from Sept. 11-13, 2008, is a seven-point reversal from the August 14-16 Zogby/Reuters poll that showed McCain ahead, 46%-41%. In that survey, 13% were not sure or favored another candidate. Now, that number is down to 8%, with their movement primarily to Obama.
The change from a month ago may correlate with the perception among likely voters that the McCain campaign has been the more negative. Overall, 44% say McCain’s campaign has been the more negative, compared to 31% who say the same about Obama’s campaign. Among self-described political independents, 48% said they think McCain’s campaign has been more negative.
And a warning sign for Obama and Democrats: Third party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr can make a difference:
When Libertarian Bob Barr and Independent Ralph Nader are included in the horserace question, Obama and McCain are tied, 45%-45%. Both Barr and Nader registered between 1%-2%. Last month, McCain led by five points in the four-way race.
The perceived tone of the campaign looks like a factor in the latest turn in Obama’s favor.
And the biggest issue? The economy — but so far McCain has an edge on that issue:
Exactly one-half of voters said the economy was the most important issue in deciding whom to choose as President. No other issue garnered more than 9%. When asked which candidate can best manage the economy, McCain edges Obama, 47%-45%.
And Gallup:
The Sept. 14-16 Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows Barack Obama regaining a slight, although not statistically significant, edge over John McCain, 47% to 45%, among registered voters, marking the first time since the week of the Republican National Convention that McCain has not held at least a one percentage point margin over Obama. From a broad perspective, the race remains a statistical tie. But there has been a general drift towards Obama since McCain moved to a five-point lead over Obama through the weekend after the GOP convention.
Today’s report includes two days of interviewing conducted after reports of the collapse of Wall Street financial institutions and changes in the stock market began to dominate the news on Monday. Gallup Poll Daily tracking data show that in each of these individual days (Monday and Tuesday) consumer ratings of the U.S. economy have become more negative. Similarly, in each of these individual days’ interviewing, Obama has led McCain in election tracking. There is thus a correlation between the bad financial news and Obama’s gains, although the data do not allow us to conclude definitively that there is a causal connection between the two. Throughout the campaign, Obama has generally held an edge over McCain when voters are asked who could best handle the U.S. economy, although McCain gained on the economic dimension in polling conducted immediately after the GOP convention.
Kansas City Star columnist Yael T. Abouhalkah writes of the latest Gallup poll:
While Democrats seems to be wringing their hands over Sarah Palin’s popularity, Barack Obama has suddenly took a 47-45 percent Gallup Poll lead over John McCain on Wednesday.
That means Obama has wiped out McCain’s five-point lead of just a few days ago.
Bad U.S. economic news — all occurring under the watch of a GOP president — clearly is weighing on McCain’s campaign.
[UPDATE: McCain’s Palin’s favorable ratings are starting to slip.]
Why is McCain suffering some erosion?
For one thing, parts of a candidate’s convention “bounce” inevitably fade. For another, the economy is coming back into focus and replacing lipstick and pigs as a focal point.
Also, as noted here, not only has McCain run campaign ads that have created a media chatter and a furor on radio and cable talk shows (reportedly a key goal of the ads) but the mainstream media has run a host of print and broadcast stories about the ads having not just inaccuracies but “lies.” Inaccuracies are corrected; lies are repeated over and over again once the inaccuracies are pointed out. McCain has now started to quickly lose supporters in the media who always gave him the benefit of the doubt. It’s not easy to gain the trust and respect of the media. McCain had it and has undermined it.
It was a huge mistake in the middle of such a controversy to start to go after the media as a group and individually. And McCain’s camp can expect very close scrutiny of all assertions from now on since the message to the media has become a) you don’t really count b) we don’t care what you think or say and whether you point out it’s wrong or not c) we dare you to stop us because we don’t need you. It’s a variation on Gary Hart’s: I dare you to follow me and report what you see. The tenor of media coverage on McCain has shifted very quickly in recent weeks. And not in a way that will be helpful in the long run.
Even so, polls don’t show a massive shift but some McCain erosion and a still tight race. A few other polls:
—A PPP poll in Virginia finds Obama with a narrow lead and indicates GOP Presidential candidate Sarah Palin is a highly polarizing figure.
–Obama still leads in California but McCain has made gains.
–Obama leads narrowly in Pennsylvania.
—Obama now leads McCain in most polls taking the pulse of Michigan, although narrowly.
—The Presidential race is tightening in Washington, although Obama leads there. But Obama’s camp should be concerned about the large number of undecideds, since undecideds, some believe will break for McCain.
UPDATE II: Two views on the polls.
1. Comments from Left Field on Gallup:
Gallup further goes on to say that there is not enough data yet collected to imply a causal relationship between Obama’s gain in momentum to the recent misfortune on Wall Street. However, I think that data will soon be forthcoming if two things continue.
The first is if negative economic news continues to hit at a steady pace. John McCain, who once said that he didn’t know as much about the economy as he probably should, will be put in the hotseat with every major development, and such a dynamic has put him in a tough position where he has had to either backtrack on positions he’s held for decades, or answer in generalities and rhetoric that sounds even too hollow for low information voters.
Yes, people can be easily dazzled by fancy ads, but if an issue hits crisis level on a broad scale, expect more people to cut through the glitz and look for the meat.
The second thing to pay attention to is if Obama can continue to own the issue as he has done through the first half of this week. Central to this has been a major economic speech delivered yesterday in Colorado, and a controversial, and frankly risky, two minute long commercial sans production value that does nothing more than feature the candidate talking about the economy.
There’s a lot more, so read the whole thing.
2. Hot Air’s Allahpundit:
There’s no proof that it’s tied to the market downturn, although Gallup has a hunch. If they’re right, I wonder if we haven’t already seen Maverick peak. Gulp.
The good news? Looks like America isn’t racist today. Whew!
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.