New gloom has sundered the already divisive French presidential elections due to begin on Sunday because of the bold terrorist attack in the Champs Elysees avenue, the pride of Paris.
A terrorist fired an automatic weapon used by soldiers at war to kill a police officer, and wound two others and a civilian. The Islamic State claimed credit in several languages within minutes of the attack.
The question now is whether voters will react by leaning towards Marine Le Pen, the far-right anti-Muslim candidate in the first round of polls on Sunday and raise her to victory in the second and final round on May 7.
President Donald Trump thinks they will. Vladimir Putin of Russia will certainly be pleased because of her very divisive ideas.
For many in France and Europe, her victory would be a disaster because she wants to take France out of the Euro currency zone and the European Union, which France founded 60 years ago to seal peace after the catastrophes of World War II.
Undoubtedly, IS and other Islamic extremists would be delighted if France falls into an extended period of instability following a Le Pen victory, because she is also rabidly anti-Muslim and anti-immigrant.
Her rule is sure to alienate France’s mostly Arab-origin Muslims who make up nearly eight percent of the population and are packed cheek by jowl in “Cités” around the country, which are French equivalents of Brazil’s favelas. That would turn France into a recruiter’s paradise for IS and other militant Islamists.
Most of France’s urban elites and journalists still refuse to entertain the possibility of a Le Pen victory, much like most analysts and reporters refused to countenance Trump’s seizure of the White House until the ultimate minutes of polling.
A new study by an elite French public policy institute says that a majority of those in France that favor pessimism support Le Pen, regardless of age, education and status.
And these are gloomy days for a people already notorious for grumbling and pessimism despite being better off than most in the world.
The first round of polling has 11 candidates but the four front-runners offer a remarkably discordant line-up. Communist-leaning far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon is at the opposite pole to Le Pen’s extreme right.
His party is called La France Insoumise (Rebellious France) and his promises to “give France back to the French” are like the rhetoric of Le Pen and Trump.
He wants to pull France out of NATO and would call a referendum to exit the EU if it refuses to offer better terms for French workers and be protectionist on international trade and globalization.
A lyrical orator, he suggests financially unsustainable policies including a 32-hour work week, a $1800-month minimum wage, higher pensions, more generous social welfare and earlier retirement. He is the most ideology-driven of the four chief candidates.
Francois Fillon represents the French Republican party that inherited General Charles de Gaulle’s politics of “Gaullism”, which built France’s Fifth Republic as of 1958. He is a little less extreme than Le Pen but almost as fervently anti-Islam and for tough policing.
Many Gaullists see him as the final nail in the coffin of de Gaulle’s vision of an aloof Presidency standing above party politics. Despite his imperial ideas, De Gaulle strongly favored inclusion of all sections of France’s population, including Muslim and other non-European immigrants.
He preferred patriotism to nationalism. For De Gaulle, patriotism was the love of France while nationalism was the desire to place the French first by excluding others or pushing them down to a second-class citizenship. Fillon’s positions are nationalist in the latter sense.
The front-runner so far is Emmanuel Macron, who with barely five years of political experience is a neophyte compared to the other three war-horses. Although a socialist who served as a minister in President Francois Hollande’s government, he says his politics are not linked to any ideologies of left or right.
He is pragmatic and like Trump seems to choose whatever makes common sense to him regardless of which political establishment might support him. He is strongly pro-EU, open markets and globalization. He favors more global trade and financial integration, and backs European defense to reduce the burden on America.
Recent polls show Macron at 24 percent, Le Pen at 22.5 percent, Fillon at 19.5 percent and Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 18.5 percent.
Most analysts think voting intentions are too unpredictable because of likely large abstentions but insist Le Pen will lose even if she makes it to the second round.
Current estimates are that Macron would beat her in the second round by 59 percent to 41 percent. But that was before Thursday night’s attack at the Champs Elysees, which caused acute shock because it deliberately targeted the police and happened despite the 16 continuous months of state of emergency in France.
To prevent low turnout, officials have promised to deploy at least 50,000 police and 7,000 soldiers to protect polling on Sunday.