Germany, the most stable and prosperous economy in Europe, seems to be heading for disorder ahead of fall elections partly because of the influence Donald Trump’s victory in the US is having on European democracies.

Opinions continue to be divided with some arguing that Trump’s messy governing style since January 20 is starting to scare European voters and they may turn away from similar nationalists in elections due in Holland, France and Germany this year.

But events do not seem to clearly support this view at least not yet. A new French poll today for broadcaster BFMTV placed hard-right candidate Marine Le Pen, a Trump admirer, at 28% with conservative Francois Fillon at 20% and centrist Emanuel Macron at 18% (a five point drop in 10 days). With the first round of voting due on April 23, this is the best showing for Le Pen so far.

Le Pen would take France out of the European Union and the euro currency zone although it is a founding member of both. That would be a far worse shock to European politics than Trump’s arrival in the White House was to US politics.

Now Germany, the country seen as the EU’s bedrock led by stolid Chancellor Angela Merkel, could be sliding towards political flux. That could force European politics towards anti-immigration and pro-business positions not too far removed from those of Trump.

This is alarming for many and they hope that Trump is so poor at governing that German voters return to Merkel’s predictability. She favors integrating immigrants, including refugees from Syria, and reducing protectionism in trade.

The conservative Merkel was expected to sail through the September elections but is now pushed back by the rising popularity of center-left leader Martin Schulz. His Social Democrat party has risen enough in opinion polls to make dethroning Merkel after three consecutive terms in office a credible possibility.

The jolt would be dramatic by German standards but not too upsetting because coalitions rule Germany. Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union could rule together with the Social Democrats even if Schulz becomes the next Chancellor. His party’s poll ratings have surpassed those of CDU for the first time in 10 years.

Schulz launched a frontal attack on Merkel on Monday by calling for reform of Agenda 2010, Germany’s cherished labor market and welfare system. It is credited with transforming Germany from a sick-man of Europe into the current export-led powerhouse that rules EU economies with an iron fist.

Schulz says it is outdated, noting that Germany has the highest percentage of low-wage earners in the EU. He is hard to refute because just 18% of Germans aged 25-34 work on long-term contracts in an economy where life-long jobs were the norm just 20 years ago.

Both Merkel and Schulz are challenged by Frauke Petry, who leads the four-year-old hard-right, anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. Despite steady recent gains in opinion polls and some local elections, Petry is not expected to come close to winning the Chancellor’s job.

But her rise and her rhetoric are already marking politics by making racial and religious intolerance, which were little seen German political discourse, more acceptable and frequent.

Both Petry and Le Pen are fervent admirers of Trump although he has no friendly contact with either. They see his rise as that of a kindred spirit and are inspired by his combative political style, including direct attacks on intellectual elites and journalists.

Russia has also thrown its hat in the ring. Le Pen is financed by loans from Russian banks because French banks kept her at arm’s length. Petry was feted by Russia’s parliament in Moscow last weekend where she met Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin, who as President Vladimir Putin’s enforcer was in charge of domestic politics until moving to parliament.

Polls place AfD in the 10%-15% range, which Russia sees as reason enough to justify parliamentary contacts with it. Moral support for Petry could turn into something more concrete as elections near.

It is too early to make predictions about Germany but it seems increasingly clear that the coming months will see some turmoil in usually sedate German politics. In any case, the tussle between Schulz and Merkel should change some of Germany’s economic orientations towards the left.

Election outcomes in France and Germany may not take either country closer to Trump’s world view but internal politics are unlikely to be business as usual.