In less than three months millions of Americans will go to the polls to choose the next president of the United States. For the first time since 1952, neither the incumbent president nor the incumbent vice-president will be on the ballot. Instead, the Republican Party, which has seen its popularity and electoral fortunes plummet since 2004, will pin its hopes of keeping control of the White House on John McCain—an individual who has frequently clashed with his own party’s leadership. And McCain’s Democratic opponent will be Barack Obama, the first African-American ever to receive a major party presidential nomination.
The fact that neither George Bush nor Dick Cheney will be on the ballot along with the unusual characteristics of the Republican and Democratic candidates have led to considerable uncertainty among political observers about what to expect in November. There is uncertainty not only about the eventual outcome but about whether the electoral map will undergo a drastic change from the familiar blue and red hues of the past two contests. Both Obama and McCain have been courting independent voters and campaigning in states that have not supported their party’s presidential candidates in many years. This has led some pundits to suggest that the 2008 electoral map could look very different from the 2000 and 2004 maps. According to these commentators, this year’s election is likely to be fought on an expanded playing field with fewer red and blue states and more purple states.
Despite claims by both campaigns that they plan to compete throughout the country, however, there are good reasons to be skeptical about the possibility of a drastic change in the electoral map.