Bloody chaos is returning to its previous intensity in Syria as mediation by the United Nations flounders and Secretary of State John Kerry seemed at wits end today in his latest efforts to save the patchy cessation of hostilities.

The UN’s own credibility and utility as an effective diplomatic tool for peace is at stake if the mediation collapses in coming weeks and the humanitarian disaster in Syria becomes worse.

By most accounts, the multiple wars have already killed 400,000 people usually civilians and caused a flood of four million refugees outside Syria and some five million displaced within the country.

The focus now is on bringing the cessation of hostilities to the historic city of Aleppo, which was excluded from the pause started two months ago and has been reduced to rubble in many areas. It used to be a flourishing metropolis of over two million people and Syria’s lucrative commercial capital.

Fighting in Aleppo took a sharp turn for the worse when several medical facilities were destroyed recently in bombing raids by government warplanes.

Government forces supported by Russia and Iran are relentlessly pushing back moderate rebels armed and financed by the US and Saudi Arabia, who have held nearly half the city for four years.

That caused sufficient alarm in Washington for Kerry to arrive in Geneva on Sunday for talks with UN mediator Staffan de Mistura and ministers from Saudi Arabia and Jordan.

Amid many words about the suffering of Syria’s people, he did not have much to report to journalists today beyond “And so these are critical hours. We look for Russia’s cooperation…”

He spoke of a new operations center at the UN in Geneva to monitor the cessation of hostilities 24/7 but Mistura insisted, “We are preparing the mechanism… (we) need the political will, otherwise we would have only a mechanism.”

Despite Mistura’s efforts to keep up the momentum of mediation, the outlook is very bleak for the cessation of hostilities or successful talks to end the hostilities.

The UN’s reputation as a useful diplomatic tool is at stake. It is already deeply stained by the alleged cover up of sexual violence by some of its peace keepers in Africa’s wars and tardiness in holding anyone to account.

Since peace keepers in UN uniforms are supplied by governments, the UN avoids responsibility saying only governments not the UN can punish perpetrators, including those alleged to have committed rape, sexual assault and pedophilia.

Mistura made a similar point about the exclusive responsibility of governments when he warned the UN Security Council last week that his mediation efforts might fall apart despite the worsening humanitarian crisis.

He said only governments involved in Syria, particularly the US and Russia could save the mediation process by pressuring the warring sides to prolong cessation of hostilities and provide access for delivery of humanitarian aid.

These are valid points but do raise questions about the UN’s utility as a diplomatic force for peace, since it argues each time that it has trouble delivering even humanitarian aid if the major world powers do not first control the sides involved in intractable local wars.

Mistura’s mediation does not include the Nusra front and Islamic State, which hold nearly two thirds of Syria’s territory and are each other’s enemies. He is also using a troubled format that forces him to talk separately with government representatives and those of some rebel groups brought together by Saudi Arabia in a High Negotiations Committee (HNC).

The HNC’s goal is to oust Assad. It rejects any transition process that might keep Assad in place awaiting final political settlement in Syria. In contrast, Assad’s goal is to stay in power using diplomacy, political process and war to defeat all rebel groups, including HNC members, Nusra Front and Islamic State.

Mistura’s mandate from the UN Security Council is to bring about a transition process that ends in elections within 18 months for an inclusive government that controls all of Syria without loss of territory to anyone.

Despite the seemingly unsurmountable odds, hope glimmered when the cessation of hostilities occurred after Washington and Moscow strong-armed the Saudis and Assad respectively to obtain it.

Prolonged cessation is also vital for Europe because millions of Syrian refugees headed for European countries especially Germany in 2015 causing near panic among local politicians.

The hope is that deliveries of humanitarian aid during the pause will make it unnecessary for people to flee to Turkey and from there to Europe.

Mistura will continue to talk to whomever he can find and may even schedule more rounds of mediation. But his process is lethally flawed since the most effective fighting forces so far, Nusra Front and Islamic State, are not involved at all.

photo credit: Secretary Kerry Delivers a Speech to UNESCO Representatives via photopin (license)