Even as his primary election campaign struggles badly, Ohio Gov. John Kasich keeps telling Republican primary voters that he is the only candidate in the presidential race who can beat Hillary Clinton.
A new report took an in-depth look at that claim and reached this conclusion: It’s true.
Morning Consult, a company that specializes in research based on public opinion and demographic data, found that Kasich would handily beat Clinton in the Electoral College in November, 304-234. In contrast, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz would lose badly in the general election with Clinton as the Democratic nominee. Those state-by-state findings are consistent with national polls.
Party leaders bemoan their losing streak (coming up short in the popular vote in five of the last six presidential contests) and insist every four years that the GOP must focus on nominating the most electable candidate. Yet, Morning Consult found that party voters are ignoring Kasich even as he is projected to post the biggest Electoral College win for a Republican since George H.W. Bush in 1988 (map above).
The two 2016 GOP frontrunners, Trump and Cruz, insist that Kasich, stuck in a distant third, withdraw from the race. Yet the research shows that in a general election Trump and Cruz would each lose by substantial margins to Clinton.
Based on their 44,000 voter interviews and demographic information compiled in each state, Morning Consult concluded that Kasich’s advantage lies in the Midwestern and Middle Atlantic states and among independents.
What’s more, the predictive models created by the nonpartisan firm show Kasich prevailing even as Clinton would win three of the most hotly contested swing states: Florida, Virginia and Nevada. The governor however would narrowly win in Blue States that haven’t been in play for the GOP in some time: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Maine and Oregon.
Over at Vox, they offer this caution:
“Now, it’s worth remembering that Kasich has gotten little media attention so far and has scarcely been attacked by Democrats. If he actually became his party’s nominee, the race could well tighten. Still, it’s striking to see any projection put so many Blue States in play.”
In 2008 and especially in 2012 Republicans were crushed by the reality that they had lost the White House when they could have and should have won.
It seems that the GOP is headed toward that same type of misery on Election Day this November.
Map/Wikipedia