Isn’t it time to ditch the assumption stated as near certainty that Donald Trump absolutely can’t be the GOP nominee? if there’s any repetition of the 2008 Republican Presidential nomination sweepstakes, its the flavor-of-the-month battle for second place, because a new poll shows Trump holding firm. And former HP CEO Carly Fiorina now sees her rising fortunes sink. Could it be that even GOPers were not pleased with how her Planned Parenthood assertions proved to be truth-challenged?
Donald Trump and Ben Carson now stand alone at the top of the Republican field, as Carly Fiorina’s brief foray into the top tier of candidates seeking the GOP nomination for president appears to have ended, a new CNN/ORC poll finds.
Fiorina has lost 11 points in the last month, declining from 15% support and second place to 4% and a tie for seventh place.
She fell as quickly as she rose. And don’t bet your house in Vegas that she’ll rise again.
Ben Carson? He’s still a political growth industry:
At the same time, Carson has gained eight points and joins Trump as the only two candidates with support above 20%. As in early September before Fiorina’s spike in support, Trump and Carson are the first choice candidate of about half of the potential Republican electorate. All told, nearly two-thirds of Republican voters choose Trump or Carson as either their first or second choice for the nomination.
No other candidates made significant gains since the last CNN/ORC poll conducted just after the Republican debate hosted by CNN and the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.
The other big news is that former Florida Governor Jeb “My-brother-kept-us-safe” Bush and his former political protege Sen. Marco Rubio are battling it out in third, and the rest of the candidates would now appear to be conducting ego trips or manifestations of stages of denial than political campaigns:
Overall, Trump’s 27% leads the field, followed by Carson at 22%, both head and shoulders above their nearest competition. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio are tied for third place with 8% support each, followed by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul each at 5%. Fiorina, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz each have 4% support, while Ohio Gov. John Kasich is at 3%. Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum stands at 2% and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham holds 1%.
Meanwhile, there is another debate next week. It’ll be interesting to see if Fiorina has some assertion ready to try and reverse what appears to be a virtual collapse in her candidacy:
Fiorina’s decline comes across the demographic and political spectrum, with her support now topping out at 8% among those with college degrees. Last month, she stood at 22% among the same group. Fiorina has dropped 11 points among women and 12 points among men, fallen 18 points among independents, 17 points among those age 50 or older, and 15 points among conservatives.
And to those Democrats, centrists, independents and surviving moderate Republicans, if you think GOPers are upset with their choice of candidates, think again:
The poll finds Republican voters increasingly satisfied with their field of choices, 32% say they are “very satisfied” with the group of candidates running for president, up from 23% in July. Republicans also remain more enthusiastic about the presidential race than Democratic voters.In the new poll, 68% of Republican voters say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for president in next year’s election, compared with 58% among Democratic voters.
The party that gets out the vote is most likely to win — and have a shot to put its imprint on the Supreme Court for many years go come.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.