This is the first post on the election campaign, as you might have guessed I am going in alphabetical order. With each state I will provide analysis of the Presidential, Senate, Governor and House races (as applicable).

President: The race for President in Alabama is unlikely to provide much drama this year. Although some of Obama’s more enthusiastic supporters talk about retaking the South, Alabama is not a very good target. Over the last 50 years only one Democrat has won the state (Jimmy Carter in 1976) and President Bush won 57% in 2000 and 63% in 2004. Recent polls show McCain with 20 point leads over Obama

Safe Republican

Senate: The Senate race could have been interesting if Congressman Artur Davis (D) had decided to run. Davis is an African American with a fairly moderate voting record. Between the ability to keep moderate to conservative voters and the strong turnout in the AA community, he could have made a strong run. But Davis chose to remain in the House, possibly as a prelude to running for Governor in 2010.

As a result GOP incumbent Jeff Sessions will coast to victory over State Senator Vivian Figures. Recent polls show him with even a bigger lead than McCain.

Safe Republican

House: Alabama has seven House districts but only two will be competetive. Republicans in the 1st, 3rd, 4th and 6th district will win with ease while Davis will coast to a win in the 7th. Two districts held by retiring members (one GOP and one Dem) will provide some drama.

In the 2nd district Congressman Terry Everett (R) is retiring and there is a tight race to succeed him. Democrats have nominated Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright while Republicans will have a runoff to choose between State Rep Jay Love and State Senator Harri Smith. Love led the primary and has the support of GOP leaders.

Bright is popular and has a base in the major city of the district and Republicans could face fallout from a bitter primary race. The district leans to the GOP but Bright may buck the trend.

Leans Republican

In the 5th district incumbent Bud Cramer (D) is stepping down and there is also a close race to succeed him. Once again Democrats have settled on a nominee, State Senator Parker Griffith while Republicans are heading to a runoff. This contest pits Wayne Parker (who ran for the seat in 1994 and 1996) against attorney Cheryl Basswell-Guthrie. Parker nearly won the primary so he is favored in the runoff.

However the Democratic roots of the district favor Griffith.

Democrat Favored