Reliably red Kansas is having some problems with the conservative Republicans they’ve previously elected. Governor Sam Brownback and Senator Pat Roberts who are both running for re-election appear to be in trouble. The reasons differ, but being conservative may not be enough to pull them through. In fact, it may be responsible for putting Brownback in the hot seat. Kansas voters who have never previously voted for a Democrat are considering tossing staunch conservatives Brownback and Roberts out of office.
Every statewide elected official in Kansas is a Republican, but in the past Kansas favored G.O.P. moderates, like Bob Dole. And they have elected Democrats, like Katherine Sebelius, as governors. Brownback and Roberts eschew the moderate tradition, tacking as far to the right as they can while trying to bring Kansas with them. Kansans went for Romney over Obama by more than twenty points in the 2012 presidential contest, so dropping support for a Republican governor and senator can be considered upsets if recent polls are valid. Control of the Senate in Washington may hinge on whether Pat Roberts can get re-elected.
Many Kansans who are socially conservative are angry at Brownback because of his fiscal policies and are willing to vote for Democrat Paul Davis, the Statehouse Minority Leader, for governor. Though Brownback won his first term in a cakewalk four years ago, Kansas Republicans are afraid the tax cuts he instituted (the largest in state history) are going to lead the state into bankruptcy. State budget shortfalls are in the hundreds of millions of dollars yearly since his tax cuts with a greater than expected drop in revenue, and education has taken a big hit.
Even some of Brownback’s social policies have alienated Republicans. Qualifying for public assistance has become more difficult, carrying guns are now allowed in public buildings, and Medicaid is now managed by private insurance companies. Of course, abortion has become more difficult to obtain. But it is really the tax cuts and fiscal policies that make Brownback’s re-election questionable, with Davis hitting away at these and their impact on the schools and the economy. Kansas credit ratings from Moody’s and Standard and Poors have also been downgraded since the tax cuts. Brownback has been hurt as well by federal investigations of some of his associates for illegal fund-raising. Davis however, has run into a recent snag with the revelation that he visited a strip club while he was in his twenties. No charges were ever filed against him, but the information may hurt him with some social conservatives.
Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932 and seventy-eight year old Pat Roberts’ problems have brought the ninety-one year old Bob Dole out to campaign for him. One of Roberts’ dilemmas appears to be that he has not maintained a home in Kansas, though he claims to be a resident of Dodge City. Many Kansans see Roberts as a consummate Washington insider who rents a room from a family for overnight stays when he visits his home state. He has actually lived in Alexandria, Virginia since 1975, and may have never spent any significant part of his adult life in Kansas. Roberts was initially elected to the House in 1980 and has served three Senate terms prior to running for re-election this year.
The interesting part of this race is that Roberts is not running against a Democrat but facing a wealthy independent, Greg Orman. The Democratic challenger, Chad Taylor, dropped off the ballot when urged to do so by Democratic insiders who thought he would split the anti-Roberts vote and allow Roberts to squeak through in a three way race. Republicans have tried to keep Taylor’s name on the ballot, but the courts have ruled against this move. Orman has not yet revealed which party he will caucus with, but political observers expect that it will be the Democrats. On many important issues, Orman has still not taken a stand, but he would like to see a way for illegal immigrants to have a path to citizenship and has said that the Affordable Care Act is here to stay.
Governor Brownback’s low standing with Republicans and independents has also hurt Roberts. As Orman has begun to pull away from Roberts in the polls, outside groups and Super PACs with Republican ties have begun an advertising campaign hitting at Orman, but the question is whether it’s too little too late. Freedom Partners, a PAC with links to Koch Industries is one of the groups leading the charge against Orman. Both the Roberts and Brownback campaigns are trying to connect their opponents with Obama, who is disliked intensely in Kansas. But it is uncertain what effect the linkage will have. If Roberts does go down to defeat, it may be one of the races that keeps control of the Senate with the Democrats, an unexpected Election Day gift.
Resurrecting Democracy
www.robertlevinebooks.com
Political junkie, Vietnam vet, neurologist- three books on aging and dementia. Book on health care reform in 2009- Shock Therapy for the American Health Care System. Book on the need for a centrist third party- Resurrecting Democracy- A Citizen’s Call for a Centrist Third Party published in 2011. Aging Wisely, published in August 2014 by Rowman and Littlefield. Latest book- The Uninformed Voter published May 2020