Over at Real Clear Defense Christopher Lee thinks the Kim Jong Un regime in North Korea is about to collapse,
Kim Jong Un is defined by many as an egotistical fanatic whose recklessness led to dreadful mistakes during his two year tenure. First, instead of implementing a sound plan to alleviate the mass hunger and poverty in his nation where the average annual income is $1,800, he continues to conduct costly missile research, development, and test launches. To support his weapons programs, Kim spends approximately $10 billion – about 25 percent of total GDP – on his military. The $3.2 billion spent on nuclear weapons and missile development over the years is equivalent to three years’ supply of food for North Korea’s citizens.
Second, on April 8, 2013, Kim broke his partnership with South Korea regarding their joint venture in the Kaesong Industrial Park. This action further severed ties between North and South Korea and cost North Korea 53,000 jobs and wage losses amounting to $245.7 million. South Korea paid workers’ salaries directly to the North Korean government, so this loss of revenue further bankrupted North Korea.
Third, and above all, Kim’s most flawed and dangerous decision was the recent purge and public pillory of Jang Song Thaek. This action not only destroyed the image of unity in his regime, but also inadvertently acknowledged the dissension and instability within the state-run government. It strained his nation’s alliance with its closest ally, China, who was working closely with Jang in an effort to convince a determinedly opposed Kim to adopt to a China-style economic reform.
Combined, these instances demonstrate a realistic probability that this authoritarian regime may potentially crumble in the near future.
A Korea specialist and renowned history professor at the University of Chicago, Bruce Cumings, has said Kim’s recent actions, in particular the purging of his uncle, undermined his legitimacy and stature as a global leader. Cumings outlined that “Kim Jong Un has managed to tarnish his own image, look like a modern Caligula and give the lie to 90 percent of the bombast emanating from Pyongyang.” While leaders in Pyongyang continue to insist that all is well domestically, “from the stand point of the top leadership [purging Jang] was a politically stupid, self-defeating move,” Cumings added. In short, the DPRK openly admitted that someone tried to take out the “Great Successor.” And not just anyone, but the man closest to the Kim family regime.
Doug Mataconis at Out Side The Beltway disagrees with Lee.
All of these are good observation, but people have been predicting the collapse of North Korea for some time now and the Kim’s have managed to hold on with power notwithstanding that they have a nation that is barely economically viable. In no small part this seems to be due to the fact that, for 70 years now, North Koreans have been propagandized, terrorized, and punished to the point where the idea of a popular uprising against the Kim regime seems nearly unthinkable
What Doug also points out is that Lee totally ignores the China factor. China keeps North Korea’s head above the water. China does not want to see a collapse of the North Korean regime that might result in a unification with South Korea. If China thought the regime was about to collapse they would simply move in and annex the country. Although there might be some faux platitudes of objection I seriously doubt this would upset the international community.