Changes in Ukraine are the most momentous events in Europe since the former Soviet Union’s collapse, which resulted in about 14 of its territories and allies being swallowed by the European Union or NATO, the US-led military alliance.
Both the EU and NATO offered lucrative entry deals to those newly independent countries to bolster growth of democracy and human rights. That process angered Russian President Vladimir Putin but he could do nothing because his country was itself embroiled in confusion as a new entrant to privatization and democracy after decades of Soviet totalitarian state control.
Now Russia is stronger and he is increasing control, using methods that the West regularly condemns as dictatorial and non-democratic. Unfazed by critics, he is determined to resist American and European in his near abroad.
Current indications are that Ukraine’s domestic turmoil might trigger tensions capable of growing into a new Cold War between the US-led West and Russia. That will have medium and longer-term consequences for global relations, including those of major regional powers like China and India.
Now, only close cooperation among the US, EU and Russia can halt Ukraine’s downslide into chaos but that is far from certain. If the tensions scale up instead of down, the wider consequences in the Far East, South and South East Asia could upset US foreign policy goals for decades to come. Russia and China are likely to gain influence from the realignment of global relationships to America’s detriment.
So far, the US and EU are treating turmoil in Ukraine as an opportunity to set limits to Putin’s assertive behavior of recent years. They are apprehensive because he has repeatedly voiced resolve to restore Russian power to obtain the respect he thinks his country deserves. Some see this as nostalgia to revive the defeated Soviet Union’s power.
Putin is wary because he sees the speedy EU and NATO grab of former Soviet territories as an existential security threat for Russia. He is determined to prevent Ukraine from slipping into the West’s grasp even if he has to provoke a new Cold War, because it is a strategically vital territory on Russia’s borders and no buffer zone would remain to protect his country.
To salvage the situation, the US and EU would have to credibly reassure Putin that they are not trying to gobble up Ukraine, using the pretexts of democracy and respect for human rights. Otherwise, new abiding divisions will appear between the West and Russia, placing China and India, among others, in a quandary.
For instance in recent years, India has chosen close strategic partnership with the US to help Delhi face potential turmoil in Pakistan and China’s increasing military assertiveness. India is nervous because it faces serious security threats from two major directions — an unstable Pakistan in the West and swaggering China to the north.
Narendra Modi, the politician most likely to become India’s Prime Minister after the May elections, bluntly warned Beijing last week to give up territorial ambitions in eastern India that are unresolved for over 50 years. He is likely to be a better friend of US foreign policy in the region than any previous leader.
However, it will be much harder for India to find stable ground to stand up to China if it has to choose between the West and Russia in case Ukraine triggers the start of a new Cold War. Indian dithering between the two sides may make China bolder in its confrontations with Japan and the Philippines about possession of large tracts of the North and South China seas. That would complicate US responsibilities for the protection of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the South East Asians.
Avoiding a western confrontation with Putin will not be easy because domestic Ukrainian politics are a hell-hole of greed, vanity, extreme nationalism and short-sightedness. At the same time, the stakes for Russia are very high.
Overall, Russia is weak. The US and EU are worth over $30 trillion together while Russian GDP touches $3.4 trillion in PPP terms, which is just a little larger than Germany’s $3.3 trillion. It is excessively dependent on oil and gas in addition to major problems in almost all areas of governance, economy, finance, taxation, corruption and nepotism. But Putin remains very popular because unemployment is just 5.5% — less than in the US and EU — and there are ample foreign reserves of over $500 billion.
On the other hand, Russia’s military power is formidable and it has veto power in the UN Security Council. The last thing any sensible leader should desire is to push Moscow’s back to the wall. Yet, the West does not resist taking advantage of Russia’s other weaknesses, thus strengthening Putin’s determination to stand his ground and push back wherever he can.
Ukraine is shaping into that battleground. Western leaders insist they do not want to test Putin but all applauded when Ukraine’s parliament replaced his protégé President Viktor Yanukovych with a close ally of his arch-enemy Yulia Tymoshenko, who is probably more corrupt and incompetent than he is.
Consequently, Ukraine’s 46 million people may be rudderless for a while because the victorious protesters are fragmented among many leaderless groups. Prospects for elections in May are shaky because democracy never took hold after the 2004 Orange Revolution and the declining economy is also crushed by huge debts. Last December, Putin promised $15 billion in loans and lower oil and gas prices to keep Yanukovych in power. That tap will now close and the US and EU are still uncertain about a bail out.
In any case, the pain of Western-imposed austerity as a price of bail out could cause Ukrainians to explode with rage again. They are fed up of economic pain and expect a magic wand to quickly give them European lifestyles after 23 years of domestic mismanagement. They will expect to be rewarded for turning their backs on Russia, which has been a part of Ukrainian daily life since the 1700s.
Ukraine is a tinderbox that could sink into civil war and partition because weapons are easy to find. Some reports say protesters include extreme anti-Russia nationalists and other radicals who have plundered police weapon’s depots in recent weeks. Moscow’s intervention using armed local proxies cannot be ruled out since over a third of Ukrainians are of Russian origin (although it is unlikely to send in tanks as it did in Georgia).
Partition is on the cards because Ukrainians in the west prefer the EU while those in the heavily industrialized east prefer Moscow. The southern Crimea region houses major Russian military bases and has already said it might join Russia if Western pressure does not relent.