The University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato, one of the most accurate political analysts and forecasters in the country, find in his latest edition of his must-read Crystal Ball a shake up in the emerging ranking of Republicans believed to be seeking the Oval Office in 2016. According to Sabato, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has been damaged by “bridgegate” and has declined in strength. Kentucky Senator Rand Paul is on the ascent and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, also in the top three list, has remained the same. But, he notes, there is NO front-runner right now. As I’ve noted HERE, Christie has done major damage to his brand which until “bridgegate” saw him climbing in national polls.
Sabato writes, in part:
It’s hard not to think about the permanent campaign when assessing what is the biggest political story of 2014 so far, Gov. Chris Christie’s (R-NJ) scandal involving lane closures on the George Washington Bridge connecting New Jersey to New York. Christie continues to aggressively deny any involvement in the decision to close the lanes. The Bridge Affair — we’re really trying to avoid calling it “Bridgegate” — undoubtedly makes Christie weaker now than he was a couple months ago when he was basking in the warm sunshine of a walkover reelection. Still, we’re not ready to say that his national aspirations are doomed.
We bumped Christie down a peg in our Republican presidential ratings, but we still are putting him in our top tier. Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI) leads our list, as he has since we introduced it last year. In reality, though, this is a completely wide-open field with no one even approaching front-runner status.
On Walker:
We continue to like Walker’s combination of Blue state electoral success and conservative bona fides, but let’s face it: We have little idea how he would handle the crucible of a national campaign. That is just unknowable at this point. Walker’s potential as a candidate comes in part because, as a governor, he doesn’t have to weigh in all the time on divisive national issues — something he won’t necessarily be able to get away with in 2015 if he becomes a candidate. It seems like an odd comparison, but Walker might end up being like Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX), who had all the makings of being a great candidate until he actually became one. Tim Pawlenty (R), the former Minnesota governor whose shiny candidacy went up in smoke quickly, is another comparison that Walker and his allies surely wouldn’t welcome. And of course Walker needs to win reelection — we rate him a solid favorite but he’s not likely to win by a big, Christie-esque number — or all this talk is moot. We like Walker’s potential as a candidate, but just because he tops our list doesn’t make him the frontrunner: This is a very big and fluid field.
Perhaps competing with Walker for oxygen will be Gov. John Kasich (R-OH), who is in a similar position to Walker — he appears likely to win a second term in November — and who we believe is eager to throw his hat in the ring, as he did, briefly, in the 2000 cycle. He has moved up our list slightly since our previous update. One big potential liability is his support of Medicaid expansion in Ohio, which Walker has largely resisted. Any connection with Obamacare in 2016 could be a kiss of death in a GOP primary, although it didn’t kill Mitt Romney in 2012. (As for Romney running again in 2016, forget about it.)
On Paul:
While it’s hard to see him actually winning the nomination, Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) now occupies the second slot on our board. Despite his protests that he’s just 50-50 on running, it seems likelier than not that Paul would throw his hat in the ring to provide a different voice in the primary field — particularly by offering a more dovish approach to foreign affairs and the national security state, not unlike the role his father played in the 2008 and 2012 nominating process (although the son is more of a conventional Republican than his father). Paul would probably be competing for the same segment of primary voters as Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) if they were both in the field. We like Paul’s chances a bit better than Cruz’s, although if one believes that support/endorsements from party leaders are important — and there’s evidence to suggest they are — it’s difficult to imagine either Paul or Cruz getting the needed backing from party bigwigs.
On Christie:
While it’s hard to see him actually winning the nomination, Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) now occupies the second slot on our board. Despite his protests that he’s just 50-50 on running, it seems likelier than not that Paul would throw his hat in the ring to provide a different voice in the primary field — particularly by offering a more dovish approach to foreign affairs and the national security state, not unlike the role his father played in the 2008 and 2012 nominating process (although the son is more of a conventional Republican than his father). Paul would probably be competing for the same segment of primary voters as Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) if they were both in the field. We like Paul’s chances a bit better than Cruz’s, although if one believes that support/endorsements from party leaders are important — and there’s evidence to suggest they are — it’s difficult to imagine either Paul or Cruz getting the needed backing from party bigwigs.
Sabato believes Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) have seen their time pass, and he feels Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-LA) is in worse shape as his “national star seems to be fading as he faces unpopularity at home…”
And then there’s one more name:
Lurking in the middle of our ratings is Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), who doesn’t enjoy the same kind of buzz that he did in 2012 or early 2013 but who now might be a bit underrated as a contender. Rubio’s considerable political talents aren’t negated by reaching for a bottled water or getting twisted in knots by immigration — he could still be a formidable 2016 contender, even if the national spotlight has moved on to others. In the early stages of a presidential campaign, sometimes it’s better to avoid the limelight. Just ask Christie. Or a certain Democrat…
The Democrat?
…Hillary Clinton. Being considered the frontrunner in 2008 obviously wasn’t enough to win her the nomination, and one wonders if all the attention Clinton is getting — from magazine covers to a laser-like focus on every word or tweet she utters — will ultimately make voters tire of her, and perhaps even clamor for an alternative in the Democratic primary.
Go the link and read it all. Sabato has an excellent track record and doesn’t analyze pushing any political agenda, blog, newspaper or cable news station.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.