The American People oppose it but many are still clamoring for intervention in Syria. Yes it is a humanitarian nightmare but is there really anything we can do to help? To answer this question we need to know more about Syria and the nature of civil wars in general. Fifteen years ago Barbara F. Walter wrote The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement, a study of civil wars since WWII. In a recent blog post, “The Four Things We Know About How Civil Wars End (and What This Tells Us About Syria),” she explains the four things we need to know about civil wars and how that applies to Syria.
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Civil wars don’t end quickly. The average length of civil wars since 1945 have been about 10 years. This suggests that the civil war in Syria is in its early stages, and not in the later stages that tend to encourage combatants to negotiate a settlement.
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The greater the number of factions, the longer a civil war tends to last. Syria’s civil war is being fought between the Assad government and at least 13 major rebel groups whose alliances are relatively fluid. This suggests that Syria’s civil war is likely to last longer than the average civil war.
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Most civil wars end in decisive military victories, not negotiated settlements. Of these wars governments have won about 40% of the time, rebels about 35% of the time. The remainder tend to end in negotiated settlements. This suggests that the civil war in Syria will not end in a negotiated settlement but will rather end on the battlefield.
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Finally, the civil wars that end in successfully negotiated settlements tend to have two things in common. First, they tend to divide political power amongst the combatants based on their position on the battlefield. This means that any negotiated settlement in Syria will need to include both the Assad regime and the Islamists, neither of whom is particularly interested in working with the other. Second, successful settlements all enjoy the help of a third party willing to ensure the safety of combatants as they demobilize. This means that even if all sides eventually agree to negotiate (i.e., due to a military stalemate or increasingly heavy costs), it’s unlikely that any country or the U.N. will be willing to send the peacekeepers necessary to help implement the peace. The likelihood of a successful negotiated settlement in Syria? Probably close to zero. (Bold Mine RB)
So what does this tells us?
- A negotiated end to the civil war in Syria is unlikely – too many players.
- The civil war in Syria is in the early stages and will continue for a decade or more.
- There really is nothing the outside can do to stop it.
What should we do? Try to get rid of the chemical weapons both for the sake of the Syrian people and the world at large. This is probably doable. Supply humanitarian aide to mitigate the human suffering. As much as possible attempt to keep the conflict from spilling over Syria’s borders.
Any outside military intervention is likely to fail and would probably just make things worse.