What to Expect from a Post-Chavez Venezuela
by Daniel J. Graeber
It’s unlikely that ailing Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez will return to power after missing his Thursday inauguration because of ongoing cancer treatment in Cuba. That leaves Vice President Nicolas Maduro in de facto power of a country that has moved further away from Washington and closer to rogue regimes like Syria and Iran. In the likely event that Chavez dies, or is already dead, opposition leaders may incite demonstrations that have the potential to turn violent once the veil of despotism over the Venezuelan people is lifted. A divided post-Chavez political climate in Caracas could open the door for better ties with the Western world, however, given Maduro’s experience as a foreign diplomat and savvy negotiator. But for an economy dependent in a poorly-managed oil sector, the best way to preserve the Chavez legacy may be without the man himself.
The Venezuelan Supreme Court ruled that the presidential term is a matter of continuity, allowing the cancer-stricken Chavez to continue through his 4th term in office, which he secured in October by narrowly beating rival Justice First party candidate Henrique Capriles. The 58-year-old Chavez said he’d leave power in the hands of Maduro, his vice president and foreign minister. During Maduro’s tenure as foreign minister, Caracas has moved closer to anti-western regimes like Gadhafi’s Libya, the dictatorship in Belarus and the fading Syrian regime of Bashar Assad. Long gone are the times when Caracas supported U.S. doctrine in Latin America, though even some Venezuelan leaders who’ve since moved to the opposition say Maduro’s role as a diplomat would make him at least tepid toward Washington should power remain in his hands.
U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Fla., a staunch critic of Latin American despots, said the country’s Supreme Court is filled with “cronies” and who support the Chavez doctrine embraced by the “gangsters” in Caracas. The 14-year period of resistance to Washington’s position in Latin America, however, can’t continue as it had without Chavez at the helm. Venezuela is divided deeply along political lines. And for the first time in Venezuelan history, an inauguration passed without the president, leaving the future as opaque as the government itself.
The economic legacy of Chavez, meanwhile, may be in his failure to administer some of the largest oil reserves in the world to his country’s favor. Oil production since 2001 has declined by more than 20 percent and exports have dropped by almost half of their 1997 levels, the year before Chavez took power. Oil, however, accounts for more than 90 percent of the country’s earnings from exports, makes up half of its budget revenues and accounts for 30 percent of its gross domestic product. This, coupled with oil industry woes, means any chance of financing the social programs that made Chavez a hero to some is unlikely to last.
U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Fla., a staunch critic of Latin American despots, said the country’s Supreme Court is filled with “cronies” and who support the Chavez doctrine embraced by the “gangsters” in Caracas. The 14-year period of resistance to Washington’s position in Latin America, however, can’t continue as it had without Chavez at the helm. Venezuela is divided deeply along political lines. And for the first time in Venezuelan history, an inauguration passed without the president, leaving the future as opaque as the government itself.
The economic legacy of Chavez, meanwhile, may be in his failure to administer some of the largest oil reserves in the world to his country’s favor. Oil production since 2001 has declined by more than 20 percent and exports have dropped by almost half of their 1997 levels, the year before Chavez took power. Oil, however, accounts for more than 90 percent of the country’s earnings from exports, makes up half of its budget revenues and accounts for 30 percent of its gross domestic product. This, coupled with oil industry woes, means any chance of financing the social programs that made Chavez a hero to some is unlikely to last.
Cross-posted from Oilprice.com
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