Update: It is looking increasingly like it will be Paul Ryan (CNN, AP, NBC, etc reporting it)
Since the announcement is set to happen at 6am Pacific time it is unlikely I will be up to watch, so I will offer a few thoughts on a Ryan pick.
Personally I think this would be a very bad pick for the Romney campaign. The only real benefits he seems to get from the choice are 1) it is something of a surprise given the conventional wisdom of the past few weeks and 2) it helps to excite the hard right base of the GOP.
To a large degree those benefits go away almost immediately. The surprise factor is already playing out and given that the announcment is coming on the last weekend of the Olympics it is likely to be gone by next week.
The energizing the base factor will probably last a bit longer and help Romney heading into the convention, but one has to question why they really need to energize the base. As polarized as the electorate is and it seems to me that the core GOP base would support pretty much anyone other than Obama.
In addition the convention usually has a factor of exciting the base and boosting polls, but I do not see that as being cumulative. With 45% pretty solid for either side there isn’t that much to play with, so we could well see this boost fizzling out going into the convention. The story then becomes no traditional convention gains.
On the other hand Ryan has a real prospect of turning off the key swing voters that Romney needs as well as hurting him with some of the base (like seniors). It is true that Romney would have to deal with the Ryan budget no matter what but with Ryan as his running mate he’s pretty much hugging the budget with both arms versus saying that it is a needed step but should be reviewed (I’ll have more thoughts on the Ryan budget and spending in general in a future post).
So my view is that Ryan would be an overall net loss for the Romney campaign. He might excite the base and bring some voters who otherwise would have stayed home out to vote but he is also likely to drive away a greater number of voters who would have been open to voting for Romney.
Of course we don’t know for sure it is Ryan. If it is I am sure I’ll have more to say on the topic in the future, if not then we can look at the actual choice.
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According to news reports Mitt Romney will announce his running mate in Virginia on Saturday at 9am Eastern Time.
There has been a lot of speculation he will pick Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, though I still lean to Rob Portman of Ohio as the probable choice.
NBC is now reporting that it has “confirmed” the choice is Ryan and many are pointing to the fact that the announcement is taking place aboard the USS Wisconsin as a further confirmation of the choice.
Personally that seems a little too cute to me and perhaps is a sign that the Ryan theory is a head fake to fool everyone.
I don’t see Ryan as a really good choice myself. Yes he will rally the right but they are likely to vote for anyone running against Obama. Someone like Portman has greater appeal to the independents and has more of a chance of bringing along Ohio as Ryan has of bringing along Wisconsin.
But I certainly do not hold myself to be a political genius.
Though if I am going to throw in the wild guess prediction, it could be Virginia Governor McDonnell since the announcment is taking place in his state and he would help carry along his home state.