A Reuters/Ipsos poll suggests Mitt Romney is not closing the deal with conservative Republicans. In fact, he has lost a bit of support:
Despite his strong showing in early state contests in the race for the Republican U.S. presidential nomination, Mitt Romney’s support nationwide has dipped slightly during the past month, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday.
Romney was backed by 29 percent of Republican voters in the telephone poll conducted February 2-6, down from 30 percent in a survey in early January, although the change was within the poll’s margin of error.
The results suggest Romney – despite his vast advantages in organization, fundraising and momentum after victories in New Hampshire, Florida and Nevada – still has many doubters among Republicans nationwide.
“He still hasn’t really convinced all the Republicans across the country that he’s the guy to get behind,” said Chris Jackson, research director for Ipsos public affairs.
But the bottom line is this: Romeny can raise huge batches of money so, in the end, look for him to get the nomination since $$$ buys organization and often effective negative advertising.
The former Massachusetts governor’s three rivals in the race to oppose Democratic President Barack Obama in the November 6 U.S. election were in a virtual tie for second, the poll showed. The gaps between the three were within the poll’s margin of error.
Support for Ron Paul, a U.S. congressman from Texas, grew by 5 percentage points to 21 percent. That moved him into second place and ahead of former House of Representatives speaker Newt Gingrich, whose support slipped to 19 percent from 20 percent.
Support for Rick Santorum, a former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania, rose by 5 percentage points to reach 18 percent, putting him just behind Gingrich, according to the poll.
Republican strategist Doug Heye said Romney’s nationwide poll numbers were being held down partly because he is the front-runner in the Republican race, making him a target for his rivals.
“The other candidates are all piling on Romney,” Heye said, “and that’s going to have an effect.”
The Reuters/Ipsos poll also showed Obama’s approval rating ticking upward during the past month, a period in which favorable reports on the economy seem to have given his re-election effort some momentum.
Obama’s approval rating in the new poll was 48 percent, up from 47 percent in January. His disapproval rating was higher, though: 49 percent, unchanged from last month.
I agree with analysts who say at this point the 2012 election looks like it’ll be a toss up election.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.