Could 2008 be the year when the Republican party goes into the Presidential election offering voters a REAL “Law and Order” candidate?
What once seemed worth a “Yeah…right….” is now looking like it COULD possibly happen…
Fred Thompson, the veteran politico and actor, is clearly being examined seriously by GOPers and as that’s happening some other Presidential nominee wannabes are starting to feel the heat, according to a Gallup poll:
A new USA Today/Gallup poll suggests actor and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson could be a factor in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, should he decide to enter. Included for the first time in this poll, Thompson places third behind front-runner Rudy Giuliani and second-place John McCain. There has been little change in the Democratic ballot in recent weeks, other than a slight improvement for John Edwards. Hillary Rodham Clinton remains the Democratic leader, with Barack Obama, Al Gore, and Edwards also getting significant support.
Why is this happening? As Gallup notes, Republicans — particularly conservative Republicans — are not particularly enthused over the kinds of candidates who are out on the hustings so far:
One of the major themes running through early media coverage of the Republican campaign is the idea that Republicans are unenthusiastic about the existing field of candidates. The current group of candidates is thought to be either too moderate (Giuliani and McCain), too unknown (Sam Brownback, Mike Huckabee, and Jim Gilmore) or both (Mitt Romney and Chuck Hagel). There has been constant speculation that some well-known and unquestionably conservative candidate would enter the race to fill this perceived vacuum. Some have long thought Newt Gingrich would be that person, though his unpopularity among the general public casts serious doubts on his ability to win the presidential election. More recently, Thompson — who served in the U.S. Senate from 1994 to 2003 but retired and returned to acting — has said he would consider entering the race.
In his debut in Gallup’s Republican primary trial heat, 12% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they would be most likely to support Fred Thompson for the party’s 2008 presidential nomination. That is good enough for third place in the crowded field of 14 candidates, behind Giuliani (31%) and McCain (22%), according to the March 23-25 poll.
So some independent voters have already liked what they’ve seen.
Meanwhile, the Old Media and the New Media often draw parallels to Thompson and Ronald Reagan, etc. But is that the WRONG comparison? Here are some things to consider:
But is that really enough?
Various reports say the Bush associates and the Bush family are split now between supporting Senator John McCain and Mitt Romney. Would Thompson get the support of the existing establishment (versus the older-style Republicans)? Would they try to beat his candidacy back, or go with him because he might look for a winner?
The bottom line is Thompson is less another Reagan than perhaps, in terms of Republicans, another Ross Perot.
Perot burst upon the American scene like a political skyrocket after appearing on Larry King Live. He was one of the FEW independent candidates who looked like he actually had a chance to win. Why?
He became popular because Americans from both parties didn’t like their choices — the first President Bush and Governor Bill Clinton.
And so it is with Thompson.
Republicans seem to feel that right now they would have to hold their noses and choose one of a flawed field (in terms of conservatism and social values). Then Thompson comes along, a relatively fresh national campaign face, with ideas more in line with mainstream conservatism plus the communication skills so vital in 21st Century American politics.
So: will the Thompson boomlet last?
Various reports suggests he is looking at this very seriously this time.
But remember what happened to Ross Perot. He had Big ‘Mo. And then he pulled out…and when he got back in, it was too late. His moment in political history had passed him by.
Thompson has a skilled actor’s timing. Does he have a skilled politician’s timing?
UPDATE: The Washington Post headline also uses the same Law And Order pun we do in an excellent piece. Some highlights:
“Law & Order” star and former U.S. senator Fred Dalton Thompson is considering a bid for the White House that would test whether Hollywood can once again launch a Republican to the world’s premier political stage….
…..The onetime senator from Tennessee is known to many Americans for playing New York District Attorney Arthur Branch on “Law & Order” and an admiral in the film “The Hunt for Red October.” But his real-life record as a no-nonsense lawmaker who also served as the minority counsel to the Senate Watergate committee is appealing to party activists dissatisfied with the current crop of Republican hopefuls.
“He has a conservative bearing and a conservative presence, but he’s independent in his thinking and his voting record,” said Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.), who added that Thompson is “seriously considering” a presidential campaign at the urging of many friends. “He has a commanding television presence that makes every other politician in America jealous.”
The ability to communicate and come over well on television doesn’t necessarily win elections but it makes it a lot easier. Some Republicans and Democrats have it, some don’t. Thompson has it. And those who don’t have it, need to work on it.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.