The latest news is that the Obama administration is now taking a stance best summarized as evolution without revolution: it is balking at calling for Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to step down:
The Obama administration is urging Egyptian leaders to include more people in a national dialogue on reform but won’t endorse demands from protesters for the immediate resignation of embattled President Hosni Mubarak.
As the U.S. anxiously awaits political developments in its staunchest Arab ally, administration officials warned Monday that a precipitous exit by Mubarak could set back the country’s democratic transition.
After several days of mixed messages, the administration coalesced around a position that cautiously welcomes nascent reform efforts begun by newly appointed Vice President Omar Suleiman that may or may not result in Mubarak’s resignation before September, when elections are to be held. Mubarak has said he will not run.
On Monday night the Los Angeles Times reported that the United States is backing off from calls for immediate reform in Egypt. “The Obama administration has reconciled itself to gradual political reform in Egypt,” the paper wrote.
Under Egypt’s constitution, Mubarak’s resignation would trigger an election in 60 days, well before September, and U.S. officials said that’s not enough time to prepare.
“A question that that would pose is . whether Egypt today is prepared to have a competitive, open election,” State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said. “Given the recent past, where, quite honestly, elections were less than free and fair, there’s a lot of work that has to be done to get to a point where you can have free and fair elections.”
This news will likely create some controversy in the United States and elsewhere, but it is not an unpredictable stance. Many times when faced with a possible upheaval or a more orderly, systematic transition governments — particularly the United States — will prefer the first menu selection. The key question ultimately becomes whether result of the transition is genuine or not.
This could also reflect a judgment on Washington’s part that after due reflection it concludes that Mubarak’s government will weather the storm and that the demonstrators don’t have the support within the regime and the all-important-military to actually topple Mubarak. Another question now becomes how the Egyptian government will view the United States if it does survive in this form and starts to transition. Will the relationship between the two governments ever be the same?
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.