This post is the second of a two-part article entitled Tea Party Kettle: Half Full of Half Empty? PART I of this article was posted earlier today, and I encourage readers to read it before reading this post, as PART I, as it provides some of the necessary context for understanding PART II.
As I mentioned in PART I of this article, it is my intention to use PART II to introduce some data that I collected during the time I spent at yesterday’s Tax Day TEA Party and then offer some concluding thoughts.
BACKGROUND
The purpose of me even bothering to collect data during yesterday’s event was both to educate myself regarding the political views of people how attend Tea Party gatherings as well as to provide some objective evidence for others that might be scratching their heads wondering what the Tea Party Movement is all about. I admit upfront that my own biases helped steer me in deciding what kind of data I would attempt to obtain from Tea Party attendees as well as form the two hypothesizes which I would then use the data to either reject or affirm.
Hypothesis #1: The Tea Party Movement is not as right-wing (i.e. politically conservative) as the mainstream media would have the American public believe.
Hypothesis #2: The Tea Party Movement is driven more by partisan factors as opposed to a clear and consistent political philosophy in favor of smaller government and individual liberty.
However, before I set out to address these hypotheses as well as some of the finer details that I will go into at the conclusion of this article, I must first define the terms which I am using to make certain that we’re all on the same page and understand what we’re talking about when using these terms. Since this article addresses political philosophy, it is particularly important that we have a consistent definition for the terms conservative, liberal, and libertarian.
As I see it, the absolute worst way to define political philosophies is by allowing conservatives, liberals, and libertarians to define their own political philosophies without acknowledging a single reference point. I argue this because the resulting definitions would be completely arbitrary. How does one even begin to compare two political philosophies if the people defining them are using two completely different standards of measurement? I would be like asking Californians and Nebraskans to define what makes their state great and having Californians respond that it is the food-producing ability of the San Fernando Valley that makes their state and having Nebraskans respond that it is the sense of small town values that makes their state great. Knowing about California’s food-producing ability tells me absolutely nothing about the degree to which small town values exists, and conversely, knowing about Nebraska’s small town values tells me absolutely nothing about its food-producing ability. If we’re one is going to define different political philosophies, we have to do so using the same standards of measurement.
As I see it, the best way to come up with a single standard of measurement by which to define various political philosophies is by having a solid understanding of what government is in the first place. Simply stated, government is an institution that has a monopoly on the use of force, which it then uses to direct and control the actions of the people it governs. That a particular government may be acting in a way that it genuinely believes to be in the best interests of its people does not change the fact that its laws are not voluntary and that the government reserves the right to punish (either through fines or imprisonment) those who do not comply with the government’s laws, however arbitrary these laws might be. This is not my opinion of what government is. This is the objective definition of what government is and always has been.
If we can all agree that the government is an institution that has a monopoly on the use of force for the purpose of setting public policy, then I think the best way to define a political philosophy is by measuring the scope of the areas of public policy that the political philosophy advocates that the government maintain or achieve a monopoly on the use of force. With that in mind, I define the terms conservative, liberal, libertarian, and statist as follows:
Modern day conservatives tend to support free market, minimal taxation, and minimal regulation of the private sector. That is to say, conservatives tend to argue that the government’s scope of power should be restricted when it comes to property rights & economic liberties. This is in contrast to their position on individual rights & civil liberties in which government is acknowledged to have a vested interest in regulating private activities for the purpose of maintaining traditional moral values.
Modern day liberals tend to support tolerance of individual lifestyles and minimal regulation of private activities occurring between consenting adults. That is to say, liberals tend to argue that the government’s scope of power should be restricted when it comes to individual rights & civil liberties. This is in contrast to their position on property rights & economic liberties in which government is acknowledged to have a vested interest in heavily regulating the economy for the purpose of achieving economic justice .
Libertarians support free market capitalism and the non-aggression principle. That is to say, libertarian oppose the government attempts to regulate both the economy as well as private activities occurring between consenting adults. Most libertarians believe that the scope of government should be restricted to only those powers enumerated in the U.S. Constitution (i.e. providing for a military, judicial courts, democratic elections). Libertarians believe that an individual should be free to live his life as he wants, so long as he is not infringing upon the life, liberty, or property of others.
Statists do not support either free markets or the non-aggression principle and therefore tend to support regulation of both the economy as well as private activities occurring between consenting adults. Statists, thus, support a very robust government and will often employ both fiscally progressive and socially conservative arguments in favor of government intervention.
I’ll admit that these definitions are a bit simplistic, and they are further complicated by the fact that many Americans tend to conflate the term conservative with Republican and the term liberal with Democrat. In recent years, Republicans have not been particularly good stewards when it comes to economic liberties & free trade (federal spending under Bush, maintaining embargo against Cuba) while Democrats have not been particularly good stewards when it comes to civil liberties & individual rights (campaign finance laws, anti-smoking laws). But as a general rule, conservatives, liberals, and libertarians tend to ascribe to these definitions.
METHODS
I created 120 identical surveys, each of which consisted of two parts. The first part of the survey consisted of a set of ten statements to which the surveyee was asked to respond whether he agreed, disagreed, or maybe agreed. These ten statement were based upon the first edition of the World’s Smallest Political Quiz, which was created by the Advocates for Self-Government. In case the name of the organization didn’t tip you off, the Advocates for Self-Government is a minarchist libertarian organization (as opposed to anarchist libertarianism). The fact that the survey was written by a libertarian organization obviously has some implications with regards to introducing political bias into the survey, which I shall address in greater detail in my DISCUSSION section. Since the Advocates for Self-Government has changed their survey over the years, you’ll notice that the survey that I have used is no longer the one that can be found on their website. As explained in greater detail in my DISCUSS section, I decided to use the earlier survey rather than the current one in order to reduce the political bias inherent in the survey.
This first portion of the survey was worded as follows:
For each of the following statements, select the choice (Agree, Maybe or Disagree) that best describes your opinion.
Personal Issues
This portion of the survey was worded as follows:
Military service should be voluntary (no draft). (Agree, Maybe, Disagree)
Government should not control radio, TV, the press, or the internet. (Agree, Maybe, Disagree)
Repeal regulations on sex for consenting adults. (Agree, Maybe, Disagree)
Drug laws do more harm than good. Repeal them. (Agree, Maybe, Disagree)
Let peaceful people cross borders freely. (Agree, Maybe, Disagree)
Economic Issues
Businesses and farms should operate without government subsidies. (Agree, Maybe, Disagree)
People are better off with free trade than with tariffs. (Agree, Maybe, Disagree)
Minimum wage laws cause unemployment. Repeal them. (Agree, Maybe, Disagree)
End taxes. Pay for services with user fees. (Agree, Maybe, Disagree)
All foreign aid should be privately funded. (Agree, Maybe, Disagree)
The second part of the survey consisted of the following question:
Which of the following political parties do you most closely identify with? Please check one of the following options.
? Republican Party
? Democratic Party
? Libertarian Party
? Constitution Party
? Green Party
? Independent/Other
My goal was to hand out all 120 of my surveys and hope that I got at least 100 of them back. However, only 70 people offered to take the survey (at least twice as many people were asked and refused), and of those 70 people who accepted a survey, 60 people turned their surveys back in to me.
No attempt was made to randomize my survey or to ensure that an equal number of males and female took the survey. I simply swept through the crowd in a counter-clockwise fashion, attempting to get anyone I could to accept a survey.
In order to eliminate as much bias as possible, I refused to preface or go over any of the questions individually with surveyees. I personally did not offer any of my views with respect to any of the individual questions, however, when pressed by surveyees to identify my own political leanings, I replied that I was “libertarian.”
Upon receiving back the 60 surveys, I tabulated each of the ten responses in the first section as well as the political party response in the second section. Then, for each of the surveyees who turned in a completed survey, I proceeded to create a two-dimensional political chart, using the scoring system used in the World’s Smallest Political Quiz: 20 pts were assigned for each Agree response, 10 pts were assigned for each Maybe response, and 0 pts were assigned for each Disagree response, and total scores were tabulated for both the five Personal Issues statements and the five Economic Issues questions. Personal Issues scores were then plotted against Economic Issues scores on a two-dimensional graph in which both axes went from 0 to 100. Depending on where his or her score fell on this two-dimensional graph, each surveyee was categorized as either Centrist, Conservative, Liberal, Libertarian, or Statist. For the purposes of preventing hyphenated categories, scores that fell on the border between Centrist and one of the other four quadrants were simply categorized as Centrist.
RESULTS
Of the 60 people who returned their surveys to me, 43 (71.7%) completed the first portion of the survey while 17 (28.3%) turned in incomplete surveys. On the other hand, all 60 (100%) filled out what political party they belonged to.
Military service should be voluntary (no draft).
Agree 37 (61.7%) Maybe 11(18.3%) Disagree 12 (20%) No answer 0 (0%)
Government should not control radio, TV, the press, or the internet.
Agree 56 (93.3%) Maybe 3 (5%) Disagree 1 (1.7%) No answer 0 (0%)
Repeal regulations on sex for consenting adults.
Agree 21 (35%) Maybe 12 (20%) Disagree 15 (25%) No answer 12 (20%)
Drug laws do more harm than good. Repeal them.
Agree 11 (18.3%) Maybe 18 (30%) Disagree 30 (50%) No answer 1 (1.7%)
Let peaceful people cross borders freely.
Agree 4 (6.7%) Maybe 5 (8.3%) Disagree 50 (83.3%) No answer 1 (1.7%)
Businesses and farms should operate without government subsidies.
Agree 41 (68.3%) Maybe 17 (28.3%) Disagree 2 (3.3%) No answer 0 (0%)
People are better off with free trade than with tariffs.
Agree 39 (65%) Maybe 11 (18.3%) Disagree 8 (13.3%) No answer 2 (3.3%)
Minimum wage laws cause unemployment. Repeal them.
Agree 22 (36.7%) Maybe 11 (18.3%) Disagree 23 (38.3%) No answer 4 (6.7%)
End taxes. Pay for services with user fees.
Agree 23 (38.3%) Maybe 15 (25%) Disagree 20 (33.3%) No answer 2 (3.3%)
All foreign aid should be privately funded.
Agree 25 (41.7%) Maybe 16 (26.7%) Disagree 16 (26.7%) No answer 3 (5%)
Political Party Identification:
Republican: 23 (38.3%)
Democratic: 4 (6.7%)
Libertarian: 6 (10%)
Constitution: 3 (5%)
Green: 0 (0%)
Independent/Other: 24 (40%)
Political Leanings as Derived From the World’s Smallest Political Quiz chart:
Conservative: 4 (6.7%)
Libertarian: 14 (23.3%)
Liberal: 4 (6.7%)
Centrist: 18 (30%)
Statist: 3 (5%)
Unknown: 17 (28.3%)
DISCUSSION
The first thing that needs to be pointed out (and you’ve no doubt already concluded yourselves) is that this is not in any way, shape, or form a scientific poll. For one thing, there was no randomization involved. Randomization reduces sampling bias by equalizing independent variables that either were not or could be accounted for in the survey design. Secondly, the survey sizes was extremely small, which means the survey itself lacks significant statistical power. The smaller the statistical power of a survey, the less assurance we have that differences discovered within the sample population reflects true differences within the population itself. The converse is also true; The smaller the statistical power of a survey, the less assurance we have that differences within the actual population will be discovered within the sample population. Thirdly, the fact that surveyees were aware of the political bias behind both the creators of the survey and the surveyor might have influenced their answers. Fourthly, there is the bias inherent in the survey itself.
On the latter point, many people who are familiar with the World’s Smallest Political Quiz have noted that surveyees will offer obtain results suggesting that they are more libertarian than they had previously thought themselves to be. On the other hand, I’ve never heard of an instance in which a surveyee has complained that he obtained a result suggesting that he was more statist that he had previously thought himself to be.
In short, the World’s Smallest Political Quiz, has what scientists and statisticians would call high sensitivity and low specificity when it comes to identifying libertarian voters. The fact that the test has high sensitivity means that the test is very good at discovering libertarians and that very few libertarians will be missed. On the other hand, the fact that the test has low specificity means that the test is very poor at screening out non-libertarians.
This is the reason why I chose to go with the first edition of the survey rather than the current edition. The questions posed by the first edition were notably “harder” in that it was harder to obtain a libertarian score than in the current edition in which the questions have been watered down. Since both versions of the test already had an inherent “pro-libertarian” bias, I went with the version that had higher specificity and was therefore less likely to obtain false positives.
Rather than calling this survey a political poll (which it is not), I think is better to think of it as an informal survey, kind of like the way the cable news networks conduct their own online surveys. I see the data obtained from this survey as a beginning and not an end.
CONCLUSIONS
Earlier in my post, I listed as my first hypothesis that the Tea Party Movement is not as right-wing (i.e. politically conservative) as the mainstream media would have the American public believe. If my survey data is to be believed, it suggests that my hypothesis holds true. A full 30% of the Tea Party attendees I surveyed were centrists while only 6.7% were conservative and 6.7% were liberal. Due to the low statistical power of my survey, I don’t think one really can’t draw any meaningful conclusion from the conservative versus liberal numbers other than to point out that neither group swamped the other. However, the glaring difference between the centrist versus conservative numbers suggests to me that the Morristown Tea Party is not nearly as “right-wing” as the media has made them out to be and possibly not even as conservative as the Tea Party members believe themselves to be. A full 38.3% of those surveyed disagreed with repealing minimum wage laws (which are anathema to the concept of free market capitalism) while a full 33.3% of those surveyed disagree with ending taxes (which I thought was one of the main thrusts behind the entire Tea Party Movement).
My second hypothesis was that the Tea Party Movement is driven more by partisan factors as opposed to a clear and consistent political philosophy in favor of smaller government and individual liberty. That’s a rather difficult claim to justify based on this data alone. A good place to start would be to ask, “Do people who attend Tea Party gathers truly support across-the-board smaller government and individual freedom?” Well, according to my survey data, 23.3% of the people I surveyed were libertarians (who, by the definitions laid out about, are the only political group that supports both economic freedom and personal freedom). That’s a little better than the 20% number that I’ve typically ascribed to the “Libertarian Wing” of the Tea Party Movement.
On the other hand, it is extremely disappointing to see how many people I surveyed supports having a military draft (20%), oppose repealing regulations on sex for consenting adults (25%), and oppose repealing drug laws (50%). The military draft, laws regulating sex, and drug prohibition are completely antithetical to the limited government & individual liberty ideals that the Tea Party Movement professes to support. So I have to wonder, are these people joining the Tea Party Movement because they truly support limited government & individual liberty, or are they merely joining the movement as a protest against a Democratic Party that they don’t like?
Don’t get me wrong. There are plenty of reasons to criticize the Democratic Party, not the least of which is the $1.7 trillion dollars that was added to the national debt during Obama’s first year in office as well as the Health Care Reform Bill that was pushed through congress through the process of reconciliation. The question I have (and it’s one that many other libertarians have) is just where were all these people when George W. Bush was president? I did not see a single Tea Party protest during Bush’s 8 years in political office. Apparently the $4.9 trillion dollars that was racked up during Bush’s 8 years in office just wasn’t enough for these small government types to get up and protests. Apparently having an endless list of Czar’s was such a bad idea back when a Republican.
In the end, for me, it’s not about whether I agree or disagree with what the Tea Party stands for. Heck, if my survey data is a reflection of the greater Tea Party Movement, then I’m more in favor of smaller government and individual freedom that 75% of the people who attend these gatherings.
In the end, it’s really about the credibility of the Tea Party Movement. Can I expect Tea Party Members to stand with me in favor of smaller government and individual liberty? Or can I only count of them to do so when it’s a Democrat in the White House?
And if the Tea Party Movement is truly trying to grow and reach out toward other people who support smaller government and individual liberty, then why were so many of the attendees at yesterday’s event unwilling to even talk to me even less willing to talk to me once they discovered that I was a libertarian? If the Tea Party Movement wants the support of libertarians, then yesterday’s Tea Party attendees certainly had a funny way of showing it.
So in conclusion to the question I raised in the title of my post, I’m afraid that the answer to the question is that the Tea Party Kettle is neither half full nor half empty; it’s merely half. The Tea Party Movement (in my opinion) has the potential to effect positive change in America, but how seriously committed are they to the smaller government and individual liberty ideals they claim to profess?
I’m willing to stand with them in support of their individual liberties. The question is, are they willing to stand with me in support of mine?
NOTE: Please feel free to email me at [email protected] in order to convey any questions, concerns, or suggestions that you might have for me.
Birthplace: San Diego, CA
Birthdate: That’s for me to know
Political Party: Independent
Political Philosophy: Libertarian-liberal