Where is the government shutdown headed? Keep a few things in mind here.
First, Trump promised his supporters a wall that Mexico would pay for. Ridiculous or not, that’s what he promised over and over. The $5 billion requested for the wall comes from US taxpayers, not Mexico (and not via the USMCA deal either).
Second, Trump took ownership of the shutdown on December 11. It was blatant and got lots of media attention.
Third, Trump was ready to accept a continuing resolution (CR) to fund the government without wall funding – it passed the Senate 100-0 – until Ann Coulter and Rush Limbaugh complained that Trump was selling them out. Only then did Trump decide he wouldn’t accept the wall-less CR. The GOP-led House then passed a CR with the wall money, knowing that 60 Senate votes would never support it (and probably 50 votes wouldn’t either). We’ll never know because McConnell didn’t even bring it up for a vote.
Fourth, Dems actually offered $25 billion for the wall last spring in return for a deal that would include DACA. But Trump (with Stephen Miller’s urging) got greedy and turned it down because he wanted a major cut to legal immigration as well.
Now the Democrats have offered the same non-wall CR that the Senate agreed to a few weeks ago. Surely McConnell should put it up for a vote again. If Trump vetoes it, Congress can consider an override. But McConnell is now trying to give Trump cover by refusing to hold a vote on the same package he voted for a few weeks ago. (Even though he also refused to hold a vote on the GOP House version.) The Trump Shutdown is now the Trump-McConnell Shutdown until McConnell at least puts the new Dem House CR up for a vote.
But surely a government shutdown hurts Democrats more than Republicans, right? Well, not really. After a few weeks, TSA and Border Patrol officials will stop getting paid. Many will almost certainly walk off the job. Then there are tax refunds that won’t be processed because IRS workers are not on the job. There are myriad other ways in which a prolonged shutdown will hurt ordinary Americans. At that point Trump will become more and more desperate to deflect blame for a shutdown he proudly owned.
The breaking point will come when McConnell (who generally hates shutdowns) will face pressure to hold a vote for a non-wall CR against a Trump veto threat. It could cause a split in the GOP base unless Trump finds some symbolic way to save face and claim some virtual non-wall is actually a wall.
Democrats could obviously help there. Dems should absolutely not give in to the stupid wall request for the four reasons stated above. This is pure blackmail on an issue that is deeply unpopular to a majority of American voters. However, they can agree to increase the border security measures they already agreed to fund in return for, say, a DACA bill if that would reopen the government. But would the Ann Coulters of the world let Trump proclaim an obviously meaningless “victory” in that case? My
guess is that we will end up there anyway.
The one thing we are sure of is that Donald Trump is terrible at one thing he claimed he was very good at – negotiating deals.
photo credit: Nick Papakyriazis Restaurant’s “Sorry we’re Closed” sign via photopin (license)