A new poll from Public Policy Polling finds the race for the Republican nomination is tightening with Donald Trump showing some major erosion, while the race for the Democratic nomination shows forrmer Secretary of State Hillary Clinton significantly ahead.
Trump is down 9% from the last PPP poll, 25% to 21% each for Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, 11% for Ben Carson, 5% each for Jeb Bush, John Kasich, and the now departed Rand Paul, 3% each for Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina, and 1% for Jim Gilmore. Rick Santorum? Hew got zero in this poll (and for some reason recently “suspended” his campaign).
Meanwhile, in the Clinton Sander’s Democratic race, its 53/32.
Sanders does keep gradually moving closer- our previous couple polls had her leading 56/28 in December and 59/26 in November. But he still has some weaknesses that may make it hard for him to catch up. Primary among these is African American voters- Clinton leads 82/8 with them and has a 79/9 favorability compared to 27/23 for Sanders. That does suggest some possibility for Sanders to improve his position- part of his problem is just that black voters don’t really know him yet- but he’s starting at a tremendous disadvantage that will make the upcoming run of Southern primaries very difficult for him.
PPP has more to say on the GOP race and Trump’s decline in their poll:
It reflects an overall decline in Trump’s popularity with GOP voters. Trump’s favorability has dropped a net 17 points, from a previous +24 standing at 58/34 to now just +7 at 48/41.Trump is particularly starting to struggle on the right- he’s dropped to 3rd place with ‘very conservative’ voters at 19% with Cruz at 34% and Rubio at 22% outpacing him with that group. He does still lead with moderates and ‘somewhat conservative’ voters to give him the overall advantage.
Rubio is the candidate with the real momentum in the race. He’s up 8 points from his 13% standing in our poll right before Christmas. Beyond that he’s seen a large spike in his favorability rating- it’s improved a net 28 points from +15 at 49/34 to +43 at 64/21. That ties him with Ben Carson as being the most broadly popular candidate on the Republican side.
Things also bode well for Rubio as the field gets smaller in the coming weeks. In a four candidate field he gets 32% to 31% for Trump, 23% for Cruz, and 8% for Bush. In a three candidate field he gets 34% to 33% for Trump and 25% for Cruz. And in head to heads he leads both Trump (52/40) and Cruz (46/40). As other candidates drop out of the race Rubio is the most likely destination of their supporters.
Cruz is actually pretty steady in his national standing even after his surprise victory in Iowa. His 21% standing is up just slightly from 18% in December and his favorability rating is basically unchanged- it was 59/27 then and it’s 58/28 now. One thing Cruz has going for him is that when you combine first and second choices he comes out ahead with 41% to 36% for Rubio, and 32% for Trump. That’s another metric indicating the difficulty Trump may have in growing his support. Additionally Trump trails Cruz 47/41 head to head, which bodes poorly for him if they end up being the finalists.
The race continues to be very fluid.
A new poll out of New Hampshire is also interesting:
Donald Trump continues to hold a wide lead among likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire, according to a new CNN/WMUR tracking poll, with the pack vying for second place is beginning to break up.
Behind Trump’s field-leading 29% support, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio climbs to second place with 18% following his strong third place finish in Iowa, followed by Ted Cruz (13%) and John Kasich (12%) in a near-tie for third. Jeb Bush holds fifth place at 10%, a hair behind Cruz and Kasich, with Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina well behind at 4% each. The fight for second place between Cruz, Rubio and Kasich remains within the survey’s margin of sampling error.
Cruz has held steady compared with his pre-Iowa standing, while Kasich and Bush have each bumped up their share of the vote slightly, though within the margin of sampling error. Christie has lost some ground, dipping 4 points since a CNN/WMUR poll conducted before the Iowa caucuses.
On the Democratic side, an interesting finding as WHDH’s Andy Hiller points out:
In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton can start thinking Clintons and comebacks go together in New Hampshire.
Bernie Sanders still has a significant lead over Clinton, 58% to 36%–but he’s down three and she’s up four!
Now look at the direction of the tracks: There’s still a big gap, but it’s getting smaller.
You see the trends, and so will the candidates.
They’re good for Clinton, Rubio and Trump…And not very good for anyone else.
Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump may win their primaries, both are losing ground right now.
Still, it’s hard to see how Clinton could catch up soon enough to win. All the more reason why debates and town halls could play a pivotal role in the final outcome. Which candidate is better prepared for the debate and comes off as the most genuine?
And CNN released this poll, which has somewhat different results:
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders continues to hold a wide lead over Hillary Clinton among likely New Hampshire primary voters, according to a new CNN/WMUR tracking poll conducted entirely after the Iowa caucuses.
Sanders stands at 61% support, up slightly from the 57% he held in a late January CNN/WMUR poll conducted before he and Clinton divided Iowa caucusgoers almost evenly on Monday night. Clinton holds 30%, down a tick from the 34% she held before the caucuses. Both changes are within the poll’s margin of sampling error.
The results reflect interviews conducted during the first two and a half days of a tracking poll that will ultimately wrap together three nights worth of interviews, but give the first look at how the race is shaping up following Monday night’s caucuses in Iowa.
Full results: CNN/WMUR New Hampshire Democratic poll
The Vermont senator is also widely expected to win the primary set to be held on February 9 in New Hampshire, with 61% of likely voters saying they think he’ll win, while 25% expect a Clinton victory. Clinton won the state’s primary during her bid for the 2008 Democratic nomination after polls ahead of the contest showed her trailing then-Senator Barack Obama.
graphic via shutterstock.com
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.