A new Public Policy Polling poll shows former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in a tighter race with Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders on the Democratic side than the GOP race that continues to suggest a blow out for billionaire showman Donald Trump:
New Public Policy Polling surveys in Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island conducted on behalf of VoteVets.Org Action Fund find the Democratic race for President in those states competitive, while on the Republican side Donald Trump is headed for blowout victories across the board.
The Democratic races in Connecticut and Rhode Island appear to be toss ups, with Clinton and Sanders each having a slight advantage in one of the states. In Connecticut Clinton has a narrow edge at 48/46, thanks in large part to a 63/24 advantage among African Americans. In Rhode Island it’s Sanders who has a 49/45 lead. Clinton’s up 54/40 with actual Democrats there, but Sanders is up 67/28 among independents planning to vote in the Democratic primary and that gives him the overall lead. Clinton has a wider lead in Pennsylvania at 51/41, although that still represents a closer race than most public polls have shown over the last few weeks.
State
Democratic Results
Connecticut
Clinton 48, Sanders 46
Pennsylvania
Clinton 51, Sanders 41
Rhode Island
Sanders 49, Clinton 45
AND:
Things aren’t nearly so competitive on the Republican side, with Donald Trump getting a majority of voters in each state. He’s strongest in Rhode Island where he gets 61% to 23% for John Kasich, and 13% for Ted Cruz. The numbers are very similar in Connecticut with Trump getting 59% to 25% for Kasich, and 13% for Cruz. Things are a little bit different in Pennsylvania where Trump’s share of the vote isn’t as high (51%) and Cruz edges out Kasich 25/22 for second place. None of these states are particularly amenable to the ‘Never Trump’ movement. Trump has the highest favorability rating of the GOP candidates in each state, and also handily wins head to head match ups with Cruz and Kasich in all three states. One thing that comes across in all these places is how unpopular Cruz is- he’s way under water even with Republican primary voters.
State
Republican Results
Trump Favorability
Cruz Favorability
Connecticut
Trump 59, Kasich 25, Cruz 13
66/27
26/61
Pennsylvania
Trump 51, Cruz 25, Kasich 22
59/36
35/51
Rhode Island
Trump 61, Kasich 23, Cruz 13
But here’s the reality:
1. Barring some major event, Clinton seems destined to be the Democratic Party’s nominee for 2016.
2. The outlook continues to be bleak for the stop-Trump forces in the Republican Party. Many analysts (some who can’t stand Trump) believe even if Trump falls slightly short of the needed total the Republican Party won’t risk losing his supporters.
graphic via shutterstock.com
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.