This will be one poll where partisans can’t drag out the “bad methodogy” battlecry used for polls they don’t like. The Des Moines Register’s final Iowa poll is highly respected and it indicates the race to win the Iowa caucuses is close on both sides — with businessman Donald Trump regaining the lead on the Democratic side and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leading within the margin of error on the Democratic side.

What does it mean? It means high drama on Tuesday and the win goes to whoever can get out the vote. Will Donald Trump’s supporters turn out in numbers to win the day? Or will Texas Sen. Ted Cruz find that his persistent wooing of evangelicals saved his day (and campaign? Can Clinton spark enough enthusiasm and has she done enough solid work to prevail? Or will Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders’ younger supporters show that predictions that young people won’t show up to caucuses or be patient enough to go through the process prove false?

Here are the numbers:

REPUBLICANS:
Donald Trump 28&
Ted Cruz: 23$
Marco Rubio: 15%
Ben Carson: 10%
Rand Paul: 5%
Chris Christie: 3%
John Kasich: 2%
Carly Fiorina: 2%
Jeb Bush: 2%

The Register notes:

But there’s still a strong case for Cruz in this race — he’s more popular and respected than Trump, the final Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll shows.

“The drill-down shows, if anything, stronger alignment with Cruz than Trump, except for the horse race,” said J. Ann Selzer, the pollster for the Iowa Poll.

Mainstream Republicans, faced with seeing governors Jeb Bush and Chris Christie stalling and the grim reality looming of a victory by a smash-mouth game show host or an ultra-conservative obstructionist, have gravitated toward Marco Rubio. The young-looking, first-term U.S. senator from Florida is now at 15 percent. Still, Trump gets more of their support.

“Donald Trump could win Iowa,” said Stuart Stevens, a Maryland-based GOP strategist who has worked on five presidential campaigns but is neutral this election cycle. “But he has little room for error. He is almost no one’s second choice.”

DEMOCRATS:
Hillary Clinton: 45%
Bernie Sanders: 42%
Martin O’Malley: 3%

The Register has this section, which echoes what I said above:

Clinton’s support is up 3 percentage points from earlier this month, and Sanders’ is 2 percentage points higher.

“This race is as tight as can be,” said David Axelrod, a national political strategist. “If Bernie Sanders had momentum headed into the final month, the race now is static and essentially tied.”

“It comes down to who can grind it out on the ground on Monday night,” said Axelrod, a senior political commentator for CNN and an architect of Barack Obama’s successful 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns.

The results are within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

“Turnout is everything,” Axelrod said. “If turnout is within a normal range, Hillary likely wins. If it goes higher, approaching 200,000, it will be a good night for Bernie.”

…”Clinton’s voters are more certain and much more likely to have caucused before,” Axelrod said. “Bernie’s organizational task, counting so heavily on first-time caucusgoers — many of them young — is greater.”

JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief

Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.

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