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Why the “GOP is going to ditch Trump” meme is a bust

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Republican leaders are backtracking from their prior endorsement of Donald J. Trump to be president of the United States. The highest profile at this writing: Sen. John McCain (R-AZ).

Many are calling for him to withdraw. Others say that they will write-in Pence on their ballot.

The “he’s gotta go” litany reached fever pitch after audio and video showed the world how Trump really thinks about women. But there have been rumblings before now. An August Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that about one in five Republican voters and almost half of all registered voters thought Trump should pull out of the race.

But it’s two months later, and Trump is still with us.

Here’s why the odds are that he will still be with us on November 8.

1. Replacing Trump is unprecedented.

Granted, 2016 is a year of “unprecedented” when it comes to national politics, but …

No presidential candidate of a major party has ever died or withdrawn before a presidential election …

Vice presidents, however, have a teeny precedent. In 1972, Democratic vice presidential nominee Thomas Eagleton announced he was dropping out, 18 days after he became George McGovern’s running mate.

In 1912, Republican Vice Presidential candidate James Sherman died a few days before the general election. His name remained on the ballot; had the GOP won the election, the party would have named a replacement. However, Republicans lost to Woodrow Wilson and Thomas Marshall so the issue was moot.

2. Trump would have to bow out of the race before the RNC could agree upon a replacement.

There is no precedent for the party to kick him off the ticket.

Trump insists that there is “zero chance” he’ll bow out voluntarily.

How would the National Republican Party replace Trump should he quit? Republican National Committee Rule 9 authorizes a replacement nominee if there is a vacancy due to “death, declination, or otherwise.”

States get the same number of votes as they had at the national convention, but the voting could be limited to the 168-member Republican National Committee. There are few other details outlined (e.g., must the vote be in person or can delegates vote by mail, by email, by phone) but picking a replacement takes time, something the GOP has in short supply before November 8.

3. Yet Trump’s name would remain on the ballot.

Overseas and service (think military families) voters get their ballots at least 45 days before the election. So millions of ballots hit postal and email boxes (via a link) in September. Approximately 411,000 ballots have already been returned.

Then there’s early voting and no-excuse-required absentee voting. Voters in most states will have access to ballots within the next two weeks.

Regardless, even if ballots aren’t in the mail yet, they are at the printer or being finalized for voting machines. And the deadline for ballot inclusion has passed in all states. That means write-in deadlines, too, as many states require all candidates to register.

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/784565821242761216

4. Finally, there are electors.

The popular vote does not a president make. That comes from the Electoral College vote. Like it or hate it, that’s the system in place. On December 19, 2016, electors will vote.

Electors are generally committed to vote for the winner of the popular vote, although some states do not require this and two (Maine and Nebraska) require that votes be cast proportionally.

In 29 states, electors must follow state law in how they cast their votes. So who would they cast their vote for, if Trump was the name on the ballot? Lawyers would be reading the fine print but in many states they would be legally bound to vote for Trump.

 
So there you have it.

Political posturing will continue, no doubt. But my money is on Trump still being the name at the top of the GOP ticket on November 8.

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