Egypt Gets Its Tiananmen Square Moment

After the dramatic Tunisian uprising in the Middle East, violent unrest has broken out in Cairo and other Egyptian cities. Nowhere is the U.S. dilemma more urgent than in Egypt, writes Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center and a fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution.

“The January 14 popular revolt in Tunisia, the first ever to topple an Arab dictator, has called into question a basic premise of U.S. policy in the Middle East – that repressive regimes, however distasteful, are at least stable. Tunisia was considered one of the least likely to fall, but it fell.

“But in the growing battle between Arab autocrats and popular oppositions, the U.S. is finding itself torn between the reliable allies it needs and the democratic reformers it wants.

“The U.S. is the primary benefactor of the Egyptian regime, which, in turn, has reliably supported American regional priorities. After Iraq, Afghanistan, and Israel, Egypt is the largest recipient of U.S. assistance, including $1.3 billion in annual military aid.

“But autocracies don’t last forever. This is what decades of democratic transitions in Eastern Europe, Latin American, and Sub-Saharan Africa – and perhaps now Tunisia – have shown us. The U.S., then, finds itself in the unenviable position of being a status quo power in a region where so many detest the status quo, wish to fight it, and may – or perhaps inevitably will – one day bring it crashing down.

“Fortunately for American policymakers, the Egyptian regime will not fall tomorrow. The U.S. has a limited amount of time to, first, re-assess its Middle East policy and, then, re-orient it to ride with, rather than against, the tide of Arab popular rule. It can begin distancing itself from Mubarak by stepping up public criticism of regime repression and deepening contacts with the full range of Egyptian opposition – liberals, leftists, and, yes, Islamists alike. It is better to have leverage with opposition groups before they come to power than afterward…” More here…

(YouTube scene above:Egypt gets its Tiananmen square moment. Man bravely stands in front of armored vehicle!)