October Surprises
The Washington Post has a good editorial up about the October Surprises:
The October surprise: It’s as much a seasonal sure thing in Washington as cherry blossoms and the National Christmas Tree.
When leaves fall and elections loom, the term gets tossed around more than a Manning family football. This October, too, is chockablock with shockers. Already “October surprise” has been applied to: several unflattering new books about the White House, an upwardly revised civilian casualty estimate from the Iraq war, the Mark Foley scandal . . . and October isn’t over yet.
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On his MSNBC show last week, former congressman Joe Scarborough pointed out three recent eye-openers, including “the latest October surprise from New York’s publishing world.” Excited, he cited “State of Denial” by Bob Woodward, which actually went on sale Sept. 30, and “Soldier: The Life of Colin Powell” by Karen DeYoung, published on Oct. 10. Both books, by Washington Post reporters, “provided a double-barrel blast at the White House,” Scarborough said.He continued, “But now another book drops within weeks of the midterm elections, claiming the Bush White House played Christians for fools and called them nuts and lunatics behind their backs.”
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In some years the October surprise, like the Great Pumpkin or Godot, is much anticipated but never appears. But in recent years it’s become so predictable, so commonplace, it should be called the October Same-Old Same-Old.
This is the first American election I am following as closely as I am right now: I only started blogging in January of this year. The October surprises routine might be considered just a part of the political game in the US, but I have to admit that I find it all quite – to be honest – appalling. Everybody is attacking everybody and as a result everybody seems – to me – to be committing harakiri. If this is what Americans have to face every couple of years, if this is what – to a large degree – shapes their opinion about politics, I cannot see how Americans can possibly respect their politicians / political leaders, let alone trust them.
If this October month proves anything – it seems to me that ‘anything’ is what a terrible mess American politics really are.
Then again, perhaps that is one of the major reasons for the fascinating nature of American politics.
3 Responses to “October Surprises”
Can the publication of books be considered an “October Surprise?” Certainly, the content can affect voter opinion — but are not October Surprises calculated decisions to influence elections?
Publishing dates are, in most cases, not decided as an issue of political impact. Publication dates are designed for economic impact, a calculated timing based on market readiness for maximum exposure and maximum sales. It is no surprise political books are released in the weeks prior to elections — this is the period where the media will flock to authors for interviews and readers will more likely purchase because of political salience.
Based on the belief October Surprises are intentional bombshells, this election cycle has been relatively tame on a national level. The release of the NIE, the release of the Cunningham report, the suspension of a congressional aid at the request of Rep. LaHood, the Reid land sale, and the Foley scandal may be October Surprises, but none have stuck with the electorate at large (with the exception, perhaps, of Foley).
Oh don’t worry, we don’t.
I peronally don’t really mind attacks as long as they are policy based and rational. Althought I have’t heard much about Colin Powell’s book, I’d say that these surprises fall within that scope.
LOL!