Global Spotlight On Pakistan Again…

Two recent reports — the United Nations’ Benazir Bhutto murder probe, and the STRATFOR Intelligence analysis — puts the global spotlight back on Pakistan. If the UN Bhutto murder investigation turned the needle of suspicion on Pakistan’s ruling coterie, the STRATFOR report highlights the US exit strategy in Afghanistan and America’s growing reliance on Pakistan.

First the STRATFOR analysis: “The Americans want to leave — and if the price of departure is leaving behind an emboldened Pakistan supporting a militant structure that can target India, the Americans seem fine with making India pay that price.”

Although it is a fact that “Pakistan is geographically and geopolitically doomed to perpetual struggle with poverty, instability and authoritarianism… the alternative now being pursued is the current effort at Vietnamization of the conflict as a means of facilitating a full U.S. withdrawal.

“In order to keep the country from returning to the sort of anarchy that gave rise to al Qaeda, the United States needed a local power to oversee matters in Afghanistan. The only viable alternative — though the Americans had been berating it for years — was Pakistan.

“If U.S. and Pakistan interests could be aligned, matters could fall into place rather quickly… But now, U.S. and Pakistani interests not only appear aligned again, the two countries appear to be laying groundwork for the incorporation of elements of the Taliban into the Afghan state.

“The Indians are concerned that with American underwriting, the Pakistanis not only may be about to re-emerge as a major check on Indian ambitions, but in a form eerily familiar to the sort of state-militant partnership that so effectively limited Indian power in the past. They are right.

“The Indians also are concerned that Pakistani promises to the Americans about what sort of behavior militants in Afghanistan will be allowed to engage in will not sufficiently limit the militants’ activities — and in any event will do little to nothing to address the Kashmiri militant issue. Here, too, the Indians are probably right.” More here…

Now the UN report on Benazir Bhutto assassination. Before that let’s take a look at another development that made quite a splash in the media. Pakistan’s former ISI spy chief Hamid Gul alleged that “the United States government was involved in the assassination of former premier Benazir Bhutto.“More here…

The Guardian reported that although some police officials were suspended after the damaging United Nations’ report on Bhutto murder, “no action was taken against any officers of the army or intelligence agencies, though the UN report directly implicated the military in the events leading to Bhutto’s death.” More here…

The Times of London has an interesting story on “Who murdered Benazir Bhutto?”. See here…

And here an eye-witness account… See here..

The two reports taken together indicate a rather uncertain and turbulent future for not only the South Asian region but also the world. Is it back to square one situation when the so-called war on terrorism began?