Is Jeb Bush “Cursed” By His Brother’s Legacy?
Several stories have come out now that have run counter to the conventional wisdom several years ago that there would be a Bush Dynasty — that Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is a natural to get the Republican Party presidential nomination when he wants it (providing it isn’t this year) and coast his way into the White House.
Under the new conventional wisdom (which can be outdated as fast as the previous conventional wisdom…get it?) JB is now damaged goods and may never get there.
Under this view when President George W. Bush said Jeb would make an “awfully good” President it may have warmed some on the right’s hearts, but was otherwise The Kiss of Death.
The latest obituary on Jeb’s chances comes from The Telegraph:
He is a popular governor of a pivotal southern state, who has impressed with his leadership of hurricane relief efforts, is a charismatic speaker and a renowned policy expert – and is steeped in political campaigning.Normally, such attributes and qualifications, along with his small government, libertarian brand of conservatism, would make him a front runner for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008.
But the governor of Florida, who has a popularity rating of 63 per cent in his home state, has one disadvantage that overshadows everything else – his surname is Bush.
Many Republicans fear that Jeb Bush, the younger brother of President George W Bush, whose approval ratings hover around a miserable 30 per cent, may never enter the White House because of a family name that has become more curse than blessing.
The Telegraph notes that many Republicans are putting distance between themselves and GWB, as if the President had bird flu:
Candidates in the November mid-term elections, in which Republicans face a tough battle to maintain their grip on the Senate and the House of Representatives, have already taken note that linkage with President Bush might not be an asset.During the 2002 congressional election campaign, when President Bush was riding high in the polls, even Democrats ran campaign advertisements citing their close links with him on the issue of national security.
This year, they are attacking their Republican opponents for being too close to Mr Bush. And, aware of the damage that a single photo opportunity with President Bush could do to them, Republican candidates are going to some lengths to avoid being seen with America’s commander-in-chief.
They give several high profile examples of politicos that are stayin g away and offer this truly devastating quote:
An aide to Judy Baar Topinka, running for the governorship of Illinois, said that a visit from the president would be welcome only “late at night, in an undisclosed location”.
And then there’s this:
Republicans point out that Jeb Bush could run for the White House in 2012 or 2016 when his brother’s bad poll numbers would be a distant memory.There are signs, however, that Americans could be tiring of political dynasties, particularly if they are perceived as failed ones. Jeb Bush may now have to settle for being hailed as one of the best presidents America never had.
The problem with the Bush family as a dynasty is that it seems as if the two Bush Presidents wound up being popular mostly with Republican partisans. Both showed an inability to reach out and create the kind of broad-based coalition that could make a White House win based on a nostalgia based on even a faulty memory possible.
Unless something changes (for instance, the death of terrorist bigwig Zarqawi driving Bush’s numbers significantly up), the two Bushes will likely be known as Presidents who lacked charisma, made bold if sometimes flawed choices and governed during troubled times with hideously low popularity.
Jeb Bush can change that if he gets into some kind of position to prove he’s a different species of Bush. He has high popularity ratings in Florida. But he also has some baggage among independent voters that he’d have to shed.
A political dynasty suggests a family having an in-place political machine comprised of highly loyal militants, some kind of charisma (even in terms of political clout), name recognition that is helpful at the polls, and aspects that make voters want to continue what once was.
2012 and 2016 can be more than a lifetime in politics: it can be the equivalent of actress Shirley MacLaine’s many lives.
More likely than not, Jeb Bush can win the GOP nomination in the not-too-close future but he’ll have to do it like everyone else: by selling his political soul to interest and political groups, undermining and driving up the negatives of opponents and clawing his way to the top of the heap by convention time.
That’s the American way.
9 Responses to “Is Jeb Bush “Cursed” By His Brother’s Legacy?”
George W. was a very popular Texas govenor, too. And an effective one. Then he went off to Washington and started hanging with a really bad crowd.
No reason to think Jeb wouldn’t be the same.
Which is why I’ll never vote for another Bush.
Effectively bad.
Anyone who has any serious understanding of the crime scene called Florida state government would know that bar is set pretty low in that state. So I’m not surprised to read someone counting on the ignorance of the American public in order to make a serious case that Jeb Bush is a good candidate for President.
Yes, John in Texas. I did MANY shows in Texas when George Bush was governor. I heard wonderful things about how he worked with Democrats and was considered a governor who knew how to govern by consensus. Some friends who are Democrats were upset because they said he put a lot of highly conservative people in place, but even they also praised the way he operated and reached out to his political foes. A HUGE difference in the way he has operated in Washington.
I live in Texas and George Bush was a good governor but for some reason as president he just sort of lost his stuff. Our new governor doesn’t know how to run anything our schools are crap and our environment is crap. I really wish Strayhorn gets some more support, if Friedman and Bell left the race and got behind Strayhorn then maybe we could get rid of our worthless governor. Jeb Bush actually works well as a governor which is why I’m hesitant to have him run as president. I’m hoping some other moderate Democrats get a strong figure for the presidency and one of the Republicans from the moderate side run.
bigwig Zarqawi? The U S media plastering his name all over just gave him noteriety…in the stream of things terrorist wise Zarqawi was mediocre, a man if he was given rank would have been no more than a major or Lieutanent Colonel…not even close to the top dogs most of whom’s names are still unknown.
And about bush as Texas governor…can you guys remind me of all these good things he did for Texas?
And keep in mind I’ve known G W since 1967.
Half the people he appointed to high state positions in Texas were his business associates that helped bush gut and bankrupt all but two businesses he was associated with. Harken put g w bush on the board of directors so the fumbling fool couldn’t screw up operations..and the whole big ole 2% ownership in the Texas Rangers…wheee a whole 2 percent.
And many of those that bush appointed to high state positions were given favored positions in his administration now!
You do remember the lady lawyer bush tried to have put on the Supreme Court don’t you? She was the same lawyer in the saame law firm daddy bush hired to get g w off a D W I back in the late 60′s fer cripes sake.
And lets not forget laura…and the fact she was alleged to be drunk and angry when she broadsided and killed her highschool boyfriend, when they were all still living out in the Midland area…and had it all neatly covered up. Its on the web in the Midland, Odessa, Kermit, ect. newspaper morgues…look for yourselves.
Yeah bush, laura, the boozer like pop twins, mom, pop jeb, the forgotten brother…grampaw prescott the Nazi sympathizer….really upstanding people of the U S and Texas communities…in a PIGS EYE!
I have no doubt that GW was a moderate, effective governor, who could reach out in a bi-partisan way. I agree that the poisonous partisan atmosphere in Washington has affected how he has governed as Pres. But I alos think he made some unfortunate commitments to the Conservative movement in order to win–which Republicans seem to have to do these days (witness John McCain’s alliance with Jerry Falwell), and they have held him to it.
He also knew little about foreign policy and thus was more vulnerable to Cheney’s alliance with the neocons, rather than taking the humble stance that he campaigned with. Finally, I think 9/11 let loose his worst instincts. He has governed from a position of paranoia and insecurity, rather from strength.
Let’s not forget that unlike poppy and Big Brother G-Dub, Jeb is a PNAC signatory.
The world has seen where their foreign policy attitudes have taken us.
I don’t have a problem with PNAC.
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