Zogby: Iraq War Will Be Political Poison For GOP In November
Pollster John Zogby has told the Detroit Free Press that the Iraq War could prove to effectively be a political tsunami that will hammer the GOP in elections across the board in 2006:
The war in Iraq has become so unpopular that it could cost Republicans control of Congress, statehouses and governor races around the country, national pollster John Zogby said Friday.He said 70% of voters believe the U.S. is headed in the wrong direction, adding, “I have never seen a number like that since I’ve been polling.�
He said 68% of voters believe the war in Iraq wasn’t worth the loss of American lives. He added, “Americans want their wars to be won, they want it won quickly and their troops home and out of harms way.�
There are several ways of looking at that comment: that it means Americans demand results — or that it means Americans have limited patience, a characteristic that some of the foes of the United States are said to factor into the caluclations these days. MORE:
But he cautioned: “The Democrats have no program on any issue, they have nothing to say that matters to anyone in the United States today.”
And that’s the big, fat, grain of salt that you need to take when looking at all of these polls: the Democrats SHOULD do nicely at the polls in 2006 but simply being the anti-Bush or the anti-GOP may not be enough. Are the Democrats planning to offer more than opposition in 2006?
Iraq is the top issue for U.S. voters, immigration is second most important.
So does this mean there will LIKELY be an immigration bill this year — or that the kind of stalemate that appears to be shaping up in Congress actually happens. And, if it happens, what would be the political impact. AND:
The unpopularity of the Iraq war has cost President George W. Bush and Republicans their grip on the issue of terrorism as “their ace in the hole.�Bush is so unpopular he can’t help Republican candidates get elected this year [Zogby said]. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona, are the only national Republicans who can transcend their party’s growing unpopularity.
Why? Because although both McCain and Giuliani have taken their media and political lumps for stumping for Bush and cozying up to the party’s conservative political base, they still enjoy the images of politicos who are more independent minded than many in the GOP — people who march in their own stride, not necessarily always in lockstep with the White House on every issue.
You then have to project: is there anything that can happen to reverse this trend? And will the ongoing controversies over allegations that U.S. forces committed atrocities further harden the souring of public opinion on the war — and perhaps on those who actively support it?
3 Responses to “Zogby: Iraq War Will Be Political Poison For GOP In November”
although both McCain and Giuliani have taken their media and political lumps for stumping for Bush and cozying up to the party’s conservative political base, they still enjoy the images of politicos who are more independent minded than many in the GOP”
Pure comedy gold right there.
McCain and Giuliani lost their “independent minded” street cred at the 2004 convention. That said, neither will survive a Republican primary. Not as long as the president is still polling over 55% within his own party. In Oregon as recently as last month, he was polling 60+% positive among likely Republican primary voters.
It strikes me as an odd notion that America’s adversaries would somehow be emboldened by our short attention span when it comes to wars. This is one of the main excuses given for why we should not pull out of Iraq. We heard the same in Vietnam. It is hardly a given that we would toss in the towel if there was no quick victory if our interests were at stake. Iraq is a poor example since, at least in retrospect, no national interests were at risk. However, even assuming it is true, we are hardly a bargain for any adversary. Again, using Iraq as an example, the cost to them has been a deposed leader, a destroyed country, and a population killing more of each other than we are. If there was ever a definition of Pyrrhic victory this is it. I would hardly think any responsible leader would be willing bring this down on himself and an irresponsible leader likely would not be deterred in any case.