Gallup Poll: Americans Will Turn on Democrats’ Health Care Reform if Bipartisan Summit Fails
For weeks the real big assumption has been that today’s health care reform summit would be riskier to Republicans than Democrats. But a new Gallup poll indicates the summer is packed with political danger for the Democrats — perhaps moreso than for the Republicans.
And, specifically, it contains a big, fat political warning flag: most Americans will not be happy if the Democrats try to pass the bill via reconcilation:
PRINCETON, NJ — Americans are skeptical that lawmakers will agree on a new healthcare bill at Thursday’s bipartisan healthcare summit in Washington, D.C. If an agreement is not reached, Americans by a 49% to 42% margin oppose rather than favor Congress passing a healthcare bill similar to the one proposed by President Obama and Democrats in the House and Senate. By a larger 52% to 39% margin, Americans also oppose the Democrats in the Senate using a reconciliation procedure to avoid a possible Republican filibuster and pass a bill by a simple majority vote.
These results are based on questions included in a USA TODAY/Gallup poll of 1,009 Americans conducted Tuesday, Feb. 23.
Much discussion has focused on what President Obama and Democratic leaders will do if — as the general public anticipates — there is no agreement on a new bill emanating from Thursday’s summit. President Obama promulgated his proposed healthcare plan on Monday, and one option for the Democratic leadership is to go ahead and attempt to pass this type of bill without Republican buy-in.
The poll shows that American public opinion tilts against this option.
Not only are 49% of Americans opposed to passing a bill similar to the one proposed by Obama and the Democrats in the House and Senate, compared with 42% in favor, those “strongly” opposed outnumber those “strongly” in favor by 23% to 11%.
A follow-up question asked specifically about the use of a parliamentary procedure that would allow the Democratic leaders to avoid a Republican filibuster. Again, Americans are opposed by a slightly larger, 52% to 39% margin, and those opposed are more likely to feel strongly about their opinion than those in favor, 25% to 11%.
The survey question defines the legislation in question as being similar to that proposed by President Obama and the Democrats in the House and Senate. It is thus not surprising to find strong partisan differences in response to both questions about passage of a new healthcare bill.
This poll shows the grave dilemma facing the Democrats: if health care reform is not passed the Democrats could find that some members of its party base (particularly progressives and younger voters) might not vote in 2010 when GOPers bolstered by angry Tea Party members or sympathizers can be expected to vote in droves. And if it uses reconciliation, there could be a price — unless there is a really glaring sound byte that comes out of today’s meeting that hurts the GOP.
In retrospect, all the intra party horse trading to reach a deal on health care reform, coupled with a strange assumption that the political clock was not ticking on when the party could use its majority to get a bill through, illustrates the massive miscalculation on the part of Obama and the Democrats to make this the public focus on efforts for a year — versus the still-ailing economy.
The poll suggests that in the end, the Democrats could pay a steeper price than they imagined — no matter which path they now choose.
17 Responses to “Gallup Poll: Americans Will Turn on Democrats’ Health Care Reform if Bipartisan Summit Fails”
You don't need a mandate to do the best of any situation.
As long as republicans can gain more power by keeping people feeling upset and dissatisfied, they will prevent any bill from being reached – the current bill would be perfectly uncontroversial in any sane climate.
The modern GOP cannot create a better bill – their lower average IQ and weaker brains cannot create a less ideological, more effective bill that balances between more coverage and lowered costs.
There will not be a better bill than this one – the dissenters don't have anything better to offer and do not operate in good faith and with good purposes.
Wow, that seems to fly in the face of these two polls:
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The survey of 2,999 households by Thomson Reuters Corp shows a public skeptical about the cost, quality and accessibility of medical care.
Just under 60 percent of those surveyed said they would like a public option as part of any final healthcare reform legislation, which Republicans and a few Democrats oppose.
Here are some of the results of the telephone survey of 2,999 households called from November 9-17 as part of the Thomson Reuters PULSE Healthcare Survey:
* Believe in public option: 59.9 percent yes, 40.1 percent no.
* 86 percent of Democrats support the public option versus 57 percent of Independents and 33 percent of Republicans. http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE5B20OL200…
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And the NYT/CBS poll..
http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2009/09/25/us…
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And the “poll” of common sense. 1st and only question [asked of those not corporate shills]: “hey, do you support Medicare for everyone if they opt for it?” 95% say yes, other 5% surveyed were in a coma at the time the survey was conducted.
I've come up with a simple solution to US health reform. It's not a 1200 page bill, it's 1 paragraph.
http://robvstate.com/2010/02/25/a-solution-to-u…
“Don’t mandate healthcare for everybody. Mandate away the need for healthcare at all. Mandate an end to cancer. That’s right, make it impossible to get cancer, with the stroke of a pen. Not just cancer, mandate away diabetes and obesity and heart disease and asthma and osteoporosis and depression and AIDS. Once we’re legislated our way out of all of these health problems, we’ll be in great shape. Then we can start getting into the more exciting things. Legislate my ability to fly. Legislate my ability to have mind control. Oh, and legislate the end to war and famine.”
Not funny, not analogous to anything, not poignant, not food-for-thought. Not good at all.
Polls, polls, polls… we can make them say just about anything it seems. I recall polls showing the public was very much against impeachment of WJC, also very much against an invasion of Iraq. I guess we know how important the views of the citizens were then. HCR has to pass in some form, and it won't be perfect, but it can be a beginning and can be built on.
In Sweden, the liberals often accuse the social democrats of whining about the rich becoming richer, considering the poor also get richer and that the rising tide is lifting all the boats.
In America, people seem willing to put up with suffering constant anal rampage from the insurance companies, as long as they can keep the poor from getting any help. It's like inverted solidarity – instead of sacrificing a little to help the misfortunate, you happily allow yourself to suffer in order to make sure the disgusting poor people can't catch a break either.
Hahahahah, your society is so amazingly strange and irrational at times.
Come on Joe, haven't we learned by now that polls can be made to say whatever we want? Mr Twain was correct in his “Lies, damned lies, and statistics” quote.
Yeah, the old trickle down theory – same as rising tide. More like the bay of Fundy for the 10% and the salt flats for the 90%. Yup, ours is a crazy country, I won't dispute that, but it can also be wonderful at times. I wish our electorate had a little more on the ball though, and wasn't such easy fodder for demagogues.
It wouldn't surprise me if the day-to-day polls showed more than “a mere uptick” this week in favor of reviving the public option. (The House can still do it even if the Senate doesn't; this is not over yet!)
I suspect the Toyota auto-safety news probably gave extra lift to any public option numbers this week.
“Believe in public option: 59.9 percent yes, 40.1 percent no”
This is in the real world right now, Sil, for a change. Thanks.
I'll just note that the real issue right now for the general taxpayer (paying for their own insurance either directly or indirectly, as well as for the others on Medicare, Medicaid, VA, etc.) is that our system is based on the insurance model, but we're expecting pre-paid, and usually comprehensive, health care.
I've said that before, and the article at this link (J. Spencer, you've seen it before; you know) describes hopefully what any reform attempt Congress (with ObamaCo's prodding) makes this week and later.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinameri…
But, there's more. Here is the Economist's article on Obama's health reform “package”:
http://www.economist.com/world/united-states/di…
I'll add as an extra note that I've long before written about a future consolidation to watch — not only more integration of banks and investment firms, but here, banks and insurers — not limited to health insurers.
Also, Sil, perhaps it would help you be more calm (albeit more resentful and cynical) to understand that the health insurers' years are numbered, and they're trying to influence their eventual likely replacement (with the public sector, it's likely) or loss of their markets or market power (beginning with the individual health insurance and related state high-risk pool, etc., market segments) as well as milk it for all they can get while they last. They're expected to get greedy now (just not so much they kill themselves!).
How do the ordinary people do? Here you are, Sil.
http://www.concordmonitor.com/article/20100222/…
On the non-lib-and-Dem side, we still don't see anything that will work by itself. The following is good, and better than a tax credit, and would probably get almost everyone's agreement and support (as a tax policy agenda item), but it obviously isn't enough by itself to achieve much right now with health reform.
“[Make] all health spending—including out-of-pocket payments, purchases of individual insurance, and purchases of COBRA coverage—tax-deductible.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240527487…
“HCR has to [be] passed in some form, it's the responsible thing to do.”
I believe something will be, because it's imperative for the Dems, and they have the reconciliation device.
On the Republican side, there are possibilities. Cross-state purchases is actually a good idea (in addition to the few good things Dems have sought recently, like ending antitrust exemption) to get rid of market rigging and expand the size of some insurance pools as well as liberate competition. What many don't understand (they stop at the problems of cross-state insurance like complaint resolution and responsibility, for example) is that cross-state purchases also breaks state lines and aids (along with making Blue Cross a “shall issue” insurer in all states, for example) the process of future federalization.
If I were the Dems, I'd exploit everything of value the GOP had to offer, and even exploit those like cross-state purchases that many would reject as anti-”national” or too GOP-ish (especially if flavored by the same “competition” theme that the public option has been pretended to present) but which help the Dems in the long run. (Who's going to help with cross-state insurance complaints? Washington!)
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumn…
I think its funny that you people who believe in a public option are not actually addressing the issue of today. A public option is much more inclusive than HCR and they can't even get that settled? What makes you think our government can handle a public option?????
I don't think the dems did or said anything today, they whined and told sob stories. That about covers our government today and for that we pay them trillions of dollars. Who's stupid? I think we are. I wonder what they would have said if they were allowed to speak their own minds and not Obama's scripted material.
Sorry Joe, that's the biggest load of crap I heard in a long time.
more proof that the average American is ignorant. Not stupid, but immensely ignorant.”
So why do you bother us with your superior attitude? I would assume that the average Swede is as ignorant as you, so why don't you just keep it over there?
Hahahahah.
tax-deductible.”
Or taxable, as JM proposed, and was mentioned in the article. Right now everything is tilted and this bill won't change that. However, it will create thousands of federal jobs to administer the system, hopefully providing some jobs for some of those laid off by the medical insurance companies.
That poll STILL doesn't hold water, no matter how many times you post it, Sil.
I love ya like a sister, but I just can't find substantiating polls to back Reuter's claim.
Besides…. Both polls are from 2009!!!!!!!
Reuters is from December, and NYT is from November.
That data is way old, Sil. A LOT has changed in 2-5 months!!!!!
Right now, the public option is not preferred by the majority. As I've said before, if they cannot fix what we have with REAL reform (where it hurts ALL special interests on both sides), THEN go with the Public Option. That really isn't too much to ask is it?
Put the smack down on pharmaceutical fleecing, eliminate multiple billing, get rid of abusive law suits, reduce the effect of unions on critical care, and limit the insurance companies (even throw in price controls for all I care)…. If that doesn't work….go with Single Payer, since no one in Washington is really serious about having real reform.
I think that's fair.
“Right now, the public option is not preferred by the majority.”
It may not be, it may be this week, or at least more thought was spawned about it (because not only of the “summit” but actually more importantly, the Anthem story and the abuse people often fear).
At least she has stopped the 85% stuff, J.D. 60 per cent I found to be a refreshingly realistic figure.
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