Twin Awakenings and the Fate of Centrism

I read with great interest Rick Moran’s post on Glenn Reynolds’ comparison of the Tea Party Movement to the Great Awakening. While I disagree with some of the historical analysis of the First Great Awakening – the institutional church against which George Whitefield and Jonathan Edwards railed was the Congregationalist Church, which represented New England authority and not England – the larger point is a valid one. There is an incipient and anti-establishment movement afoot that seeks to dislodge the entire political power structure as currently assembled.

But the Tea Party movement only represents one half of that “awakening” – from the Right. And while much of the Tea Party base is little more than the desperate cry of militant Christianists out of power – a big reason these folks remained silent under Bush was that they really did like their born again President regardless of the massive spending – there certainly is a Paulite libertarian core out there animating many Independent conservatives (against both parties). The “Awakening” is an incipient coalition of Christianists, Paulite libertarians, Independents genuinely worried about debt, and a GOP establishment looking to ride any horse back to power.

But lest we forget, the nation just witnessed a similar awakening from the Left that propelled the Democrats to power in 2006 and 2008. It, too, was a widely divergent base of anti-warriors, economic populists, multicultural and secular youth, and a Democratic Party establishment thirsty for any avenue back to power. Once in power the only interest that seems to have won out is the Democratic Party establishment. So much of the energetic core of Obama’s movement has become disillusioned – just as the Tea Partiers no doubt would be if they helped the GOP gain power again. Markos Moulitsas’s widely read “Crashing the Gate” outlined the real enemy of progressive reform – corrupt Democratic insiders. Howard Dean served as the movement hero for the grassroots progressive base against Old Guard until he proved unelectable himself. A far more palatable and inspiring figure in Barack Obama took the networking prowess of Dean and married his own pragmatic demeanor to the reality of Democratic governance. The result has been…a mess so far, with several lower key accomplishments nonetheless.

Every election promises a new non-partisan insurgency of sorts – from Perot to Nader to Buchanan to Henry Wallace to George Wallace to John Anderson to the Tea Partiers. And none ever win elections. What makes this moment unique is the near simultaneous awakening of anger from BOTH sides of the political spectrum at the same time. It would be one thing if the Democrats had already passed health care reform – with, say, a robust public option – and a comprehensive energy bill, and even card check…and an enthusiastic base stood against worried Independents and outraged Republicans. But the Democrats haven’t even done enough to get their own base to watch their backs. As a result, the Democratic base demands the party jettison corrupt centrists like Ben Nelson and Blanche Lincoln (Lieberman is already gone) and pass major legislation with majority rule in the Senate (aka reconciliation).

All of which begs the question: is there any room in this political climate for centrism anymore? Sure, Scott Brown will likely prove a centrist, as will any other Northern Republican who wins this year. But unless these folks form genuine bipartisan coalitions that gain broad appeal – a prospect that appeared for a moment between Ron Wyden and Lamar Alexander on health care – the energy will rush to the extremes. And the GOP will likely ensure that Brown does not provide the bipartisan cover Democrats yearn – just as they did with Snowe and Collins. Alas, our only “centrists” in power are cowards and kleptocrats.

Awakenings provide energy and idealism. But they rarely provide a real blueprint for governance. The backdrop for all of this is a Great Recession that encourages a “throw the bums out” mentality.

And so maybe the Tea Partiers on the Right and the Gate Crashers on the Left do not comprise “Awakenings” at all. Perhaps they are little more than paroxysms of the alienated out of power. Their agendas are unenforceable and, quite often, unpopular. The corrupt deals of a Ben Nelson may highlight the ossified nature of the establishment. And our Poland-like Senate may produce the absurdity of a 41-59 “majority”. But the reality is that large-scale change is likely to occur incrementally. Like the Women’s Suffrage movement, which won in Western legislatures and gradually made its way eastward, the final XIX Amendment merely confirmed would had become a nationwide tidal wave. Sometimes confrontation is necessary to force a region – usually the South on civil rights – to change against the will of a majority of its voters. But those moments, like Reconstruction, are the exception. We change very slowly in this country.

So here is what I say on health care: pass the bill as is in the House. And then begin a bipartisan discussion with Republicans in the Senate over how to fix it. With the law on the books the only question will be how to improve it. Talk of “starting over” was never more than a smokescreen for dropping health care reform altogether. And it will become a dead letter once Obama signs it (repealing it will never have enough votes). Have that bipartisan discussion with House and Senate Republicans and start from the new reality defined by this health bill.

If that’s not possible, pass some of the obvious fixes – like eliminating the Cornhusker Kickback – by reconciliation. But don’t use reconciliation to push the public option or anything else as controversial at this time.

When the law takes effect people will find things they want to strengthen, provisions they want altered, and others they want eliminated. At that point – like fixing the “donut hole” in the prescription drug bill – there should be reasonable bipartisan support for a fix.

Whatever happens, do NOT let the extremists on either side dominate. The FireDogLake Left and the Tea Party Right waver between doctrinaire idealism and nihilism. Both must be marginalized for the sake of the country. And for the Democrats, pass the damn bill and let the voters decide in November when all the process talk is done and we have a chance to see how the bill works in action. Failure to pass the bill at this point would be a victory for the extremists.