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MOSTLY CRAPPY JOBS IN OUR FUTURE
Feb 3rd, 2010 | 47 responses
The U.S. economy has shed an unprecedented number of jobs during the past 2 years and it will probably continue losing a steady stream of jobs over the next decade in all industries. Most of these jobs will never return because of changing technology, increased robotics and massive outsourcing overseas. The U.S. private sector will inevitably create some new jobs so the overall unemployment rate will remain steady. Many of those new jobs will be essentially worthless.
Future jobs will be at significantly lower salaries, with far fewer benefits such as healthcare, pensions or paid vacations, and more temporary and contract positions. Large Corporations and their paid political representatives in Congress will argue that any job is good enough for most people in such a recession. Their little secret is that permanently high unemployment and global free trade work in their economic favor by putting downward pressure on labor costs and forcing more and more people to compete for fewer and fewer good jobs.
Chinese and Indian companies, both government-owned and privately-held, pay many of their highly-educated workers somewhere between $2 and $7 per hour, or about 25% of what the average American used to earn in a similar position. Most of their factory employees labor from 50 to 60 hours per week and they average less than a dollar per hour with no increases in compensation for time worked over 40 hours, nor do they get any meaningful healthcare or retirement benefits. The cost of living is far lower in these countries with respect to food, housing, energy, clothes and most everything else because there is a limited amount of money churning around in their economies that can be devoted to consumer goods.
Savings rates are noticeably high in China and many foreign countries because people still have to plan for health expenses and eventual retirement without any governmental social assistance. Most consumer products they manufacture must be exported and sold overseas in order to match the exaggerated output of their modern factories. However, profits associated with the value-added components of most products generally inure to the top executives in China and the U.S. who control the factories and the marketing and distribution of the products to the end consumers. All of Apple’s new electronic gizmos are made in China or Taiwan.
The most obvious reason underlying the low wages in China, India and elsewhere in the developing world is that they have huge labor surpluses. China and India have total populations each exceeding 1.3 billion and their respective workforces are both about 600 million adults. Still more than half of their citizens live in extreme poverty and working in agriculture. Their citizens continue to move in massive waves to urban areas to seek work and a better future. Their governments are under extreme pressure to keep people fed and employed, and thus avoid violent revolutions. The sheer sizes of their total populations make these goals daunting tasks.
By comparison, the U.S. total labor force is between 150 and 170 million people out of a total population of around 310 million. Children under 18, full-time students, over 65 and retired, and the permanently disabled and infirmed of all ages, are not part of the total workforce. Currently about 15 million Americans are unemployed and another 10 million are working part-time, far below their skills and experience in low-pay positions, independent contractors whose business clients have dried up, people who have given up looking due to the long recession, and finally others who never qualified for unemployment benefits or who have exhausted them.
Historically in the U.S. manufacturing jobs paid far higher than service positions, though they have fallen steadily as a percentage of the total workforce from over 20% of the workforce in 1979 to just over 10% today. Over the past 20 years, the U.S. private sector has outsourced the majority of our manufacturing jobs to low-wage foreign countries.
Professional positions pay the best but only so many are needed in any society or economy, and a limited number of people are qualified through education, licensure and experience. In the aggregate top business executives, governmental chiefs, attorneys, accountants, engineers, and architects constitute about 10% of the total U.S. workforce. During the past 10 years, many professional and highly-skilled technical positions have also started a slow but unrelenting exodus to lower-paid yet highly-educated foreign workers.
It is amazing to see the relatively high rate of unemployment and under-employment in this deep recession among U.S. computer programmers and technicians, architects and engineers, MBA’s, attorneys, and many educated individuals who once worked in banking, finance, newspapers, and real estate. Their prior positions may never return to North America and thus they must transfer their educations, skills, and experiences into completely new fields of endeavor. If the Internet permits work to be conducted anywhere in the world, it’s a lot cheaper to maintain a corner office in Bangalore than Chicago.
The construction industry has been severely battered by this recession and it provided many high-paying jobs, both unionized and non-union. Salespeople, who are found in every industry from cars, insurance, business products and services, medical/pharmaceuticals, travel, construction, and consumer products, were never paid large base salaries but they depended upon sales commissions for their livelihoods. Lower overall economic activity has depressed total sales and thus their commissions. Failing to make ever-higher quotas – regardless of outside economic factors – are often reasons behind the large layoffs among essential sales staffs.
Service and clerical workers in businesses, restaurants, stores, hotels, auto repair, customer service, janitorial, childcare, and other similar positions are principally low-paying jobs and these workers have also been hard-hit by the recession. Medically-related positions have survived well so far, but again most are in low-paying clerical, billing, nurse-aides, geriatric care, and other support services. There are only a limited number of openings for highly-compensated physicians, nurses, researchers, special assistants and top administrators available in the healthcare industry.
The U.S. economy is not creating many new high-paying positions in manufacturing, constructions, research, education, computers, or other professions. Instead, most private and governmental economists anticipate that the nation will at best create a decent number of low-paying jobs in clerical support, nursing care for the elderly, billers and collectors, commission-based sales jobs, restaurant workers, and support staff for the limited number of licensed professionals who still have enough clients. These support jobs generally pay from minimum wage to around $15 per hour.
The average employee in the U.S. makes about $37,000 a year (about $18/hr) and the annual mean household income is $50,000 for a family of 4 with 2 employed adults (half above and half below). These income figures have remained flat for the past decade and in some studies, they have shrunk in real dollars since the late 1970’s relative to inflation.
People earning between $8 and $15 per hour don’t have much disposable income to help boost demand across the economy, and less if they are supporting any children. Salaries falling between these 2 hourly rates would put the person in the bottom half of all wage earners in the U.S. After paying for basic or modest housing, transportation, food/clothes, insurance and utilities, there is practically nothing left for savings, restaurants, travel, or many consumer goods. Much of their spending occurs at big discount stores such as Wal-Mart and Target, and certainly not at Bloomingdales or Niemen Marcus.
On top of that limited income must be placed historically high levels of consumer debt for home mortgages, credit cards, student loans and medical costs not covered by insurance, averaging between $8,000 and $18,000 per person by 2008. The majority of U.S. households are trapped in a day-to-day existence, only 2 or 3 paychecks away from financial catastrophe. This is not the way to build long-term security, predictability, and overall prosperity for the nation as a whole.
Most U.S. companies view labor costs as a controllable and variable expense, and therefore more workers will be hired as independent contractors or on a temporary basis. This saves on typical employer responsibilities for healthcare, pension, 401K, and payroll tax contributions associated with full-time direct employees.
While a temporary consulting project at a private company might net a large check, the individual is then responsible for all income and payroll taxes due, plus there is no assurance that there will be any consistent or future assignments from that company or any others. Independent Contractors and small businesses must dedicate much time to marketing their goods and services – not unlike the full-time “marketing effort” that is required of unemployed people just looking for a new job. There are no “safety nets” for the periods when there are no projects or “gigs” unless the prior contract checks were large enough. The more one saves for down times the less one has available to spend during the entire year.
Perhaps we should figure out a better way to match people to various projects, gigs, assignments and jobs in this economy. Our current mix of computerized Internet job boards, private company and governmental web pages, social networking groups, alumni and school career centers, and private placement agencies are obviously not working very well. A more comprehensive, rationale, and faster nationwide system could be designed and be profitable.
About a month ago, US News & WR cited Moody’s Economy that the top 10% of earners (Households of $125,000 or more) account for 22% of all spending and the top 25% account for 45% of total consumer spending. The bottom 50% of all earners (those living in households of $50,000 or less) provide just 29% of all consumer spending. Unfortunately, the wealthy may be right in this regard. Half the entire U.S. population is disposable and don’t help the overall economy. Should we just ignore them perpetually or help them earn more? Can we really afford to destroy the American Middle Class and remain a great nation? Can most businesses survive only on the spending choices of the wealthiest 25% of the population?
So far, the response of our wealthy and political classes to this quickly diminishing economic way of life for the majority of Americans has been to simply ignore it.
• “Just deal with it” since nothing’s going to be done thru any public or private efforts.
• You should have foreseen this recession coming and thereby earned and saved more for your unfortunate early retirement. It’s your fault you weren’t born to wealthy parents.
• You really should have gotten those extra degrees, known the jobs of the future back when you started school, and made the right personal connections to snag an ideal job.
• You should not have run up all that credit card debt, student loans and mortgages. You should have planned your future with the assumption you would have little or no income.
• You’re just lazy, ignorant and greedy. It’s your fault the economy crashed, not ours.
• That’s just life being unfair. It’s too bad that 6 or more fully qualified people are competing for the same job today. Everyone knows that either the lowest bid wins or the one with the right connections gets hired.
• If you don’t like it, why don’t you just move away from the U.S. you socialist crybabies? And don’t complain that it costs money to relocate overseas and that every nation on the planet has set up many difficult legal and bureaucratic barriers to foreigners working inside their borders. “America – Love it or leave it.”
• “Free trade” only means the free flow of goods, services, jobs and money to increase private profits. It doesn’t permit the free movement of people and their families.
• You are personally responsible for your lot in life and it’s not the responsibility of society, its government, large businesses, or the wealthy class to help anyone but themselves – and don’t give us any of your religious, moral or ethical crap to the contrary. We’re not our brothers’ keepers – We’re sociopaths devoid of consciences.
• Stop whining and bothering us. We’ve got to redecorate yet again our gated-community mansion and buy an escape home in Belize when the U.S. completely crashes.
Our country is now based upon the delusion that individuals are free to do as they please and the belief in the outdated notion of “American Exceptionalism” in that the U.S. is not subject to the laws of economics, physics or reality. You just have to want it enough, work hard enough, and anything is possible. These meaningless shibboleths only apply to about 1% of the population but those lies have kept many gullible and ignorant Americans placated for most of history.
Just close your eyes and remember America’s past greatness but you simultaneously have to deny current facts and reality. You can always fool some of the people all the time. “Some” effectively means a simple majority of the voting electorate.
What a load of crap we’ve bought. Now it’s time for most of us to learn Spanish and Chinese – whether you’re good at languages or not.
Marc Pascal, happily ranting from Phoenix, AZ.
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47 Responses to “MOSTLY CRAPPY JOBS IN OUR FUTURE”
Well yeah, the country is going to hell in a handbasket, but at least you don't have to shovel snow right?
Maybe more could be “qualified” if our cost of education hadn't skyrocketed in the last couple of decades?
The only “non-crappy” jobs I have seen lately are jobs selling “innovative” financial products to suckers. Since the crash, those jobs are gone.
Well, the sad truth is you are probably right about a lot of that stuff Marc. The sociopathic element you mention has always been around, and one of the reasons for good government is to counter those forces. I still have a certain amount of faith that grassroots action can change how government operates, afterall, it's happened before, but it takes awareness, courage and a LOT of people. If things get bad enough, I can assure you the tea party folks will look like very weak tea compared to how worked up people can get.
I think I read an article last year that there would be a growing number, and, eventually a large percentage of Americans working abroad in the near future.
With regard to universities, just where is all that football money going anyway?
My guess: to the department heads, coaches, recruiters, equipment, and staff. Tuition is probably used to make up for the shortfall.
[...] MOSTLY CRAPPY JOBS IN OUR FUTURE – The Moderate VoiceThe U.S. economy has shed an unprecedented number of jobs during the past 2 years and it will probably continue losing a steady stream of jobs over the next decade in all industries. Most of these jobs will never return because of changing technology [...]
I met a college football hero from OSU with a degree in English. Prof, the man could not even read. I was stunned. What kind of stupid country do we have anyway, with stuff like this happening?
That may not be the problem…
Scientist shortage? Maybe not
As productivity increases, the amount of time people spend working should go down and the amount of leisure time should go up, but the only way for that to happen is to have an organized labor force…
Dream on…
What do you call a man who speaks four languages? Multilingual.
What do you call a man who speaks three languages? Trilingual.
What do you call a man who speaks two languages? Bilingual.
What do you call a man who speaks one language? American.
[...] MOSTLY CRAPPY JOBS IN OUR FUTURE – The Moderate Voice their paid political representatives in Congress will argue that any job high-paying jobs, both unionized and non-union. Salespeople, who are found in every industry from cars, insurance, business products and services, medical [...]
Wow. DQ posts something that really hits the nail on the head. Anyone who works in the technical fields is in it for the love of it. They share that with those who have been traditionally considered people in college majors that have poor job potential, most of the humanities. The technical fields can provide better wages for those who find work but we definitely don't provide enough jobs for them. In the IT field when they began outsourcing jobs to India and other low labor cost countries the executives said that they were just making the best use of their labor force by outsourcing the “low level” jobs that would bore their highly skilled software engineers and coders. No where did they address the fact that those jobs were also the entry level positions in the field that helped build the real world skills of recent graduates. Then, of course, they proved that they had been lying all along by building extensive campuses for advanced research and development so more jobs could be done overseas by low cost labor.
I often wonder how they can not realize that when every company is slashing costs and they view their employees primarily as costs eventually they harm themselves because of destroying the customers that are the basis of business. If they sell to other businesses they are still just a step or two removed from depending on consumers. But the magic of the markets will work it out, won't it? The belief seems to be it always has and always will.
The Great Recession and neo-liberalism
Cheap Labor Conservatism RULES!!!
As productivity increases, the amount of time people spend working should go down and the amount of leisure time should go up
…if the total amount that gets done remains constant. Of course it hasn't. We're feeding more people than we used to, curing more diseases, making more and fancier ipads and DVD players and refrigerators.
but the only way for that to happen is to have an organized labor force…
It must be not only organized but unambitious. Productivity improvements don't shrink the work week because enough people want to put in the extra hours to take home more money. And life is competitive; they pull the curve up on the lazier ones.
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And we can all see how well that has been working…
Basic Economics – Supply & Demand…
Increase the supply of labor( productivity & outsourcing), reduce the demand for labor (productivity) and watch the cost of labor collapse… Which it did…
during that entire period, according to several studies, the income of the average American worker and family essentially remained stagnant.
I've got a hundred bucks that says that's wrong. Where are these studies? What were they really measuring?
Marc, I share your concern about our economic future (although you paint an especially bleak picture that I at least hope is exaggerated), but I have to push back on a few points.
I think you accurately describe the trouble that globalization has brought to the working class in the first half of your post. I think it is globalization that has contributed, more than any other factor, to the growing income inequality in the US, which I agree is a major problem. However, liberals engage in their own form of “American Exceptionalism” when they argue that workers in the US should make more than workers with the same skills in other countries. A nation's prosperity it tied to the productivity of its workers, so a nation cannot sustain higher standards of living if they do not also sustain higher levels of productivity. No amount of government intervention (except intervention that increases productivity) can change that equation. Why does a worker in China deserve to make less than a worker in the US with the same skills? Corporations are just responding to those economic realities. I see no reason why we should arbitrary expect them to be more loyal to people living in one country at the expense of another.
If we want to maintain our higher standard of living, we have to maintain our higher productivity. Some long for the good 'ol days when a factory job could support a family, but as productivity rises, “support a family” comes to mean something different than in did before, and the cost of labor-intensive services (ie. healthcare) increases. Therefore, it takes more productive skills to keep up with the economic growth. A person who may have been able to make a living as a factory worker now has to be the person designing the automated factory equipment. A person who could have been a receptionist at a doctor's office now has to be the lab technician. That's just the reality of increased productivity. As people move into these higher-skill jobs, the lower skill jobs are increasingly replaced by automation (or, in some cases, new supplies of lower-skill labor like foreign workers). It is an upward spiral: more productivity means more wealth, which means higher quality of life, which means more education and skills, which means a more productive workforce, etc.
You argue that there is a limit to how many high-skill jobs we can produce. In other words, you argue that there is a limit to this upward spiral. I think history disproves that argument. I'm sure 100 years ago not many people envisioned a society where agriculture was not the main source of income for most people. I'm sure people looked at the city-slickers and thought, “sure, that looks like a good life, but that's only for a small number of people. People need food, and whatever they're doing in those cities can't be more important than that.” Well, I don't need to tell you about he migration away from rural and toward an urban society, and even with all of our problems, I don't think there's any disputing that our quality of life is much higher than it was then.
Now, before anyone tries to paint me as one of those who would say “just deal with it”:
The problem, as other have pointed out, is that our education system has not been keeping up with the economic growth, and so many people have been falling off the back-end of this upward spiral since their productivity growth has not kept up with the productivity growth of the society as a whole. It would not be a problem that our jobs are being taken by foreign workers if the US workers who used to do those jobs are instead doing higher-skill jobs. I whole-heartedly support efforts to improve the quality and minimize inequalities in our education system (recognizing that the problem with our education system might also reflect more general problems in our society). That is what will help us continue to improve our standard of living, not protectionist policies or punishing corporations and the wealthy.
This may go down as my longest comment ever. Sorry for the rant, although I guess I shouldn't apologize to you for that, Marc. Happy ranting.
You know, DQ, that the government, and government supported groups like banking and medicine (through the RBRVS and McCarran-Ferguson), and education (fueled by the student loan program) also grew rapidly during that period. Care to comment on that?
[...] MOSTLY CRAPPY JOBS IN OUR FUTURE – The Moderate VoiceThe U.S. economy has shed an unprecedented number of jobs during the past 2 years and it will probably continue losing a steady stream of jobs over the next decade in all industries. Most of these jobs will never return because of changing technology [...]
“I've got a hundred bucks…”
You've just discredited yourself in this debate, Dr. J.:)
[...] MOSTLY CRAPPY JOBS IN OUR FUTURE – The Moderate VoiceThe U.S. economy has shed an unprecedented number of jobs during the past 2 years and it will probably continue losing a steady stream of jobs over the next decade in all industries. Most of these jobs will never return because of changing technology [...]
[...] MOSTLY CRAPPY JOBS IN OUR FUTURE – The Moderate VoiceThe U.S. economy has shed an unprecedented number of jobs during the past 2 years and it will probably continue losing a steady stream of jobs over the next decade in all industries. Most of these jobs will never return because of changing technology [...]
Chart of the day: real hourly earnings
Annual average hourly earnings in constant 1982 dollars
Enjoy the chart – courtesy of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics…
Notice the peak years 1972,1973…
Well you could start on fixing your infrastructure or greening the economy, but that is unfortunately “communist” and “eco-fascist” respectively. Enjoy your ideologically stunted and Reaganite future.
[...] MOSTLY CRAPPY JOBS IN OUR FUTURE – The Moderate VoiceThe U.S. economy has shed an unprecedented number of jobs during the past 2 years and it will probably continue losing a steady stream of jobs over the next decade in all industries. Most of these jobs will never return because of changing technology [...]
Great article. Cut out the attacks and it would have been gospel. The first part was really excellent.
My wife is an award winning stem cell scientist. We had to leave the US…Cali, because there was simply no money to fund her progress. There were numerous uni's that wanted to give her a higher position, but simply couldn't. We would have stayed for 20% of what was offered in Germany, but no one could even do that.
The brain drain is now in reverse.
The only advantage of being an American IT worker is that the language of business and science is still English. Many people are multilingual, but their English is still not strong enough for business settings. IT services are the future of American IT. The days of super geeks coding away in the basement and making a ton of money are over.
A message to anyone out there….
If someone can do your job for 25% of your salary, you better find a new career or find a niche in your area that they can't fill.
As the piece from USA Today pointed out, that's not the real problem… We have an over-abundance of skilled labor in the US, hell we have an over-abundance of labor, period…
The solution to the problem is not economic but political and societal, i.e. take our standard workday down from eight hours to six hours, increase our standard vacation from two weeks to six weeks, etc…
Why is it that we can't seem to find qualified foreign CEOs willing to run American Corporations into the ground for 25% of the salary & bonuses American CEO's are taking home?
But what skills, DQ? There are still businesses that need workers, even in this economy, but can't find them. Are there skilled workers out there? You bet! The skills that the business needs? Apparently not. Job training and education can be done for less, but it's not happening. We are not dealing an “over-abundance of labor”, but an over-abundance of the wrong kinds of labor. And it also hurts the economy when some workers, like surgeons, earn far more than they should.
If given the chance, most people will work more to get more. I'm saying that's somehow good or healthy, but it's human nature. Telling everyone that they have to cut back is pipe-dream.
“but their English is still not strong enough for business settings”
How long do you think that will last? Not something I would want to pin my hopes on lasting very long.
We have a 17.3% U6 unemployment rate… There is NO SHORTAGE OF SKILLED LABOR, now there may be a shortage of skilled labor at the price employers are willing to pay, but that is not the same thing…
with a couple of caveats… highly specialized cutting edge industries (but that is very likely a global shortage), and industries that have been outsourced for a number of years in which no new Americans have been trained for a couple of decades…
While there are plenty of labor that is over paid, CEOs, Professional Athletes, Actors, Musicians, etc.., Surgeons don't quite fit in that group (4 years of college, 4 years of Medical School, 3 to 4 years of Internship, a couple of more years of training in their specialization), by the time a Surgeon walks into an Operating Room he has spent a decade or more acquiring the skills needed to do the job…
Well, they can keep doing the same thing that they have been doing for the last forty years, work more hours with less job security for less pay…
DQ,
I don't think the logic of the USA Today article holds up. It says the unemployment rate is 5.5% among engineers. That's still much lower than unskilled labor, so clearly some of those low-skill laborers would be better off with an engineering degree, battling it out among that labor market instead. Secondly, that rate is up from 3.9%. There's a reason for that: the recession. You'd really expect the rate to remain steady in a recession? The article, for some reason, ignores the recession and assumes the increased employment rate is the result of longer-term economic forces, as if the unemployment rate won't go back down again so we should stop training engineers. Thirdly, why are we just talking about engineers? It does bring up the good point that it's not enough just to gain more skills. They have to be skills that are useful at the time. What about nurses and other medical professionals? The increased cost of labor is one of the leading drivers of increased medical costs. The USA today piece even points out that there are other fields that are seeing more demand.
So, you've have to forgive me not making the leap from “a few engineers are losing their jobs” to “we have excess labor and should cut everyone's work week by 25%”
Regarding the “Excess Labor” theory, I'm not buying it. As long as someone has skills that can produce valuable goods or services, there will be someone willing to pay that person money. As good as we have it, in general, there are still plenty of advancements still to make in many fields: medicine, transportation, energy, food science, computers, etc. And as long as there is profit to be made in meeting those challenges (and there is), businesses will be looking for skilled people to help them do it. With all of the challenges we face, it seems to me that having more educated and skilled people around would be to our benefit.
With almost 10% of the workforce unemployed and not getting unemployment benefits, I doubt that people are being too picky. Prevailing and minimum wage laws may be a problem, but I bet that there's more to it.
You don't think that he could be trained cheaper? That they need to make more than the president? Surgeons make that kind of money for political, not market, reasons. The cost to train them also comes mostly from politics.
Wishing doesn't equal action. The problems are partly global in nature, but mostly political. As long as you're voting for Democrats because they're less evil than Republicans, you're going to get more of the same.
You do know the definition of everyday insanity, don't you?
[...] control how much money we are allowed to make. They control our finances on the national, international, and personal level — [...]
Enjoy the chart – courtesy of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics…
It's a lovely chart, and after a good bit of rooting on the BLS's web site I was able to find similar looking data.
It provides good material for discussion, though I don't think it quite backs your claim that incomes are stagnant. It only looks at wages, which are only one part of income. As you know it was the growth in benefits costs that devoured Detroit. Those are also part of the reason California is wishing it could declare bankruptcy.
From a Department of Labor report:
Moreover, wages aren't stagnant at all. In fact your graph shows more volatility than I would have expected, which has me curious. Why would wages suddenly spike in 1972 and drop two years later? A graph to back up your world view that the rich relentlessly siphon wealth from the poor should show a steady downward trend.
From the horse's mouth Goldman Sachs…
Real Wages Fail to Match a Rise in Productivity
<a href=”http://www.demos.org/inequality/numbers.c… – Wages
Chart – Hourly Wages 1973 – 2005
Hourly and weekly earnings of production and nonsupervisory workers, 1947-2005 (2005 dollars)
It's certainly no secret that the economy has been demanding higher skill levels, so no surprise that production workers aren't seeing the raises they used to.
Dr. J's prescription: take schooling as seriously as the Chinese, and firmly renounce protectionist measures that reward inefficiency in the short-sighted hope of saving jobs.
Dr J's prescription will have us all working for $5 a day within the next couple of decades as the economy collapses under the weight of the unserviceable debt, and the current billionaires set themselves up as the new Aristocracy…
On the contrary, my prescription is just the thing to strengthen the economy in the long run. We need a well-educated workforce and efficient, competitive industries.
And Strong Unions, Tariffs & Strict Immigration Controls…
No Country has ever gotten wealthy off free trade…
Hogwash. Coddling uncompetitive workers and companies may ease some short term pain for a few people, but in the long run it undermines our economy.
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