Obama and Iran: the peril is rising by the day
Jan 3rd, 2010 | 8 responses
For West Asia, 2010 has not begun well. The mess in Iran is increasing by the day and holds peril unprecedented for the entire region. If the government, however reprehensible, falls into disarray the real possibility arises of a huge arc of violent political and civil instability stretching through Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq and Palestine to Israel. The possibility of a new American war is small but that holds little comfort.
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, and Turkey are the countries bordering on Iran. Within it, 51 percent of the people are original Persians while 49% are Azeri, Kurd, Arab, Baluchi, Turkmen, Armenian, Assyrian and Georgian. Tribal groups that live across borders are unruly and powerful, in particular Bakhtiari, Khamseh, Lurs and Qashqai. Several of these ethnies and tribes also live in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
If the complexities of Iraq and Afghanistan confound American taxpayers and families losing children there, Iran is truly a Pandora’s Box. With a population of nearly 72 million, it outstrips the 23 million of Iraq and 28 million of Afghanistan. Iraqis and Afghans are pigheaded, dour, and irreducible but Iran is much worse. Its people and rulers are colored by atrocities that happened 1300 years ago creating a schism in Islam that continues to dominate their daily lifestyle and thoughts.
It is true that the current Iranian leadership has committed sacrilege by shooting and killing peaceful demonstrators during the holiest Ashura period in Shiite Islam. But it is foolhardy to pin hopes on this outrage for the regime’s overthrow by popular protests similar to those that caused the Shah of Iran’s fall 30 years ago.
The protests may well be genuinely popular rather than being fomented by American and British money spent through the Iranian Diaspora. But the regime’s overthrow, if it happens, is likely to be chaotic since the opposition has no leader similar to Ayatollah Khomeini to impose a controlled and discipline takeover. Even Khomeini ruled in relative chaos for nearly five years but Iran was not surrounded by violent insurgency and almost daily terrorism in three of its chief neighbors.
If supreme leader Ali Khamenei is deposed, the internal ethnic minorities and tribes will not be bystanders. They will take advantage of the power vacuum to advance their niches in the corridors of power, similar to the power grab in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Republican Guards, who are currently maneuvering to acquire wealth and power by rendering Khamenei a puppet, will be no match for ethnic and tribal insurgents around the country. A key reason is that the insurgents will have safe haven in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Southern Iraq and Kurdish Iraq.
The other neighbors, Armenia and Azerbaijan are already unstable and may also be forced to provide safe haven. Turkey is the only strong neighbor but it is currently in the grip of an Islamic-leaning rather than secular leadership. Its relationship with the US and Europe is much cooler than just five years ago although it remains a NATO member. Ankara will refuse to be an American proxy in handling Iran since it has turned resolutely eastward for business and political ties in recent years.
Against this backdrop, the Obama Whitehouse is sinking into a quicksand of rhetoric about severe economic sanctions through the United Nations and unilaterally, if Teheran continues its covert attempts to acquire nuclear weapons.
President Barack Obama would do well to reconsider the extreme pressures he wants to marshal against Teheran in coming weeks. Iran’s acquisition of usable nuclear weapons may be half a decade away but internal chaos is around the corner if the Whitehouse does not quietly help to bring back stability within Iran.
On and off civil war within Iran, or several small local civil wars as in Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan, will bring the perils of political and civil instability to the entire oil rich Gulf region and Central Asian countries. It will weaken Turkey’s alliance ties to the West as Ankara maneuvers to stop being sucked into the turmoil to its East and South. Israel will become more isolated surrounded by a sea of instability while Syria regains power over Lebanon as the Sunni Shiite divide widens in the entire region.
One shudders to think of the burdens caused to American families losing children and to American taxpayers, their nation’s debt, military travails and unemployment. Hopefully, cooler heads will prevail all around in 2010 than those of 2009.
8 Responses to “Obama and Iran: the peril is rising by the day”
You are RIGHT – cooler heads need to prevail – PLEASE PLEASE make your voice HEARD!
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You offer a number of appreciated insights into the inner conflicts facing Iran. But I'm not sure what exactly the downside is of Iran being torn apart by conflict, at least to the rest of the world. In fact it would seem like a great opportunity for the US to assist in crippling its greatest antagonist in the Middle East.
While I recognize that oil is fungible and any interruption in supply from Iran will drive world oil prices up, the main risk of such an outcome would appear to be to China, not the US, which officially imports no Iranian oil. Iran restricting exports would cause their own economy to collapse much faster than that of the US or anyone else, and if we are smart we will help out a few allies and let China deal with the Iranians over their oil problem.
Meanwhile, as you know, Iran remains at the mercy of a single bombing run on their only gasoline refinery. The US could no doubt sink the entire Iranian navy outside of a few speedboats in a few hours, and attain immediate air superiority over the country, scouring the antishipping missiles aimed into the Straights of Hormuz, leaving international commerce unimpaired. Certainly we should all hope that it doesn't come to that!!! But unless the US were stupid enough to actively invade Iran and try to occupy it which we are not, it seems that the downside is far less than the risk of them getting nuclear weapons. Such military action will incur the wrath of a lot of Islamics and the covert gratitude of many more.
Such actions might trigger off or accelerate the collapse of the Iranian government, based on some of your observations. The destruction of their air and naval forces and the entanglement of their land forces in a civil war would leave them in no position to dictate terms on nuclear weapons. I'm not sure I'm seeing the downside to that, again compared with them getting nukes. Of course we would all be better off if they stopped developing nuclear weapons. But how likely is that without encouragement?
I'm not sure that sanctions and more speeches from Obama are anything but a waste of time, and you seem to agree. The question is whether he will do anything more than appease Iran further, and in that the Iranians may have lucked out with the weakest US President in modern history.
Cute jab, but it's only opinion. Funny how everyone and their brother thinks they're an expert on foreign policy, not to mention being an arbiter on presidential worth – long before the jury is in. Nothing new there…
Frankly I'd just as soon spend a little more time concentrating on our own backyard for a change. That said, I do feel sorry for the more enlightened among the Iranian population, and there are plenty.
You're right. What was I thinking, expressing an “opinion”?
In the future I shall eschew opinions and offer instead lofty pronouncements, like “everyone and their brother thinks they're an expert”, and “Imperialism — I can't believe it's butter!”
The ongoing US- Iran nuclear conflict must be fairly seen within the context of the Iranian government's posed reservations/sensitivities regarding the Israeli government adopted stance on its “doctrine of nuclear opacity”.The Israeli acquired nuclear capability is no more a secret fact to the world community. Iran feels that as long as Israel adopts this nuclear capability, the security of Iranian nation is under great threat.Since the US and the other western governments register no serious concerns about Israel nuclear weapons, the Iranians are of the view that the ongoing US_ backed western opposition __to Iran's right to acquire the “peaceful means” of nuclear power_ is not warranted.
In light of the idea that Israel is considered a nuclear power, I think our position to oppose the advance of Iran's capabilities is weak, although I do believe we should. Our best bet might be to eliminate our own nuclear weapons in exchange for greater defensive capabilities, then we would have a stronger moral position to argue from. Iran's internal strife is not something we can control or predict but if we see the loss of innocent life or civil war to our advantage, surely we have already lost any moral ground we might have.
The question is whether he will do anything more than appease Iran further, and in that the Iranians may have lucked out with the weakest US President in modern history.
Give me DaMav's “weakest US President” over an incompetent Manichean W any day…