Poll: Support for Health Care Reform and Obama Go Up in December 6 Percent
A new CNN poll has found that support for heath care reform and President Barack Obama have both jumped 6 percent in December.
Why the increase for Obama? The poll shows that Obama is in particular winning over younger voters, although overall many voters feel he has not lived up to expectations. And for the Democrats: there are signs that the Democrats’ seemingly fracturing coalition is regrouping. Details:
Support for the health care reform bill that Democrats are pushing through the Senate has risen six points since early December, according to a new national poll, and although a majority of Americans still oppose its passage, only four in ten agree with Senate Republicans that the bill is too liberal.
The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey, released Monday, also indicates that President Barack Obama’s approval rating has experienced a similar six-point rise.
According to the poll, 42 percent of Americans, based on what they’ve read or heard about the bill, support Senate Democrat’s legislation. That’s up from 36 percent in a poll conducted December 2-3. Nonetheless, a majority of people questioned in the survey, 56 percent, oppose the bill.
The poll was taken before the vote early Monday morning to end a GOP filibuster and move the bill forward.
“Virtually all the increase in support for the Senate health care bill has come from Democrats, with a 10-point increase since early December,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. “Support is also up 10 points among younger Americans, compared to only two points among people 50 and older.”
Which means: the Democrats are keeping the inroads they made among younger voters and those who voted for Obama, while the GOP message has shored up its base but not gone much beyond that. This suggests both parties are in a kind of holding pattern right now — which won’t be good news for the GOP if this is the outlook in late October.
The survey also indicates the public’s divided on whether the Senate bill will help most Americans, with 38 percent saying if the bill becomes law things will change for the worse, 34 percent feeling that the bill will change things for the better and 26 percent saying things will not change.
But less than 1 in 4 think the bill will make their own health care coverage better, 15 points lower than the 37 percent who say their health care will get worse if the bill becomes law. Nearly 4 in 10 say there will be no change in their or their immediate family’s coverage.
According the to poll, 54 percent of Americans approve of the job Obama’s doing as president, up 6 points from early December, with 44 percent disapproving, down 6 points.
“Obama’s approval rating is up ten points among younger Americans, but only two points among older Americans,” Holland says. “Since the same pattern occurs in the figures for the Senate health care bill, it’s possible that the two are related. Obama’s support is also up mostly among liberals, to 81 percent.”
So, more than ever, Obama is going to have to try and keep his base but not suffer greater erosion among independent voters and moderates — quite a juggling act, given than some Democratic progressives consider any concessions to moderates tantamount to giving in Republicans, even when moderates aren’t Republicans.
Meanwhile, Obama’s numbers don’t look as good at Gallup, where the latest daily tracking poll has him at 49 percent approval and 46 percent disapproval.
Nor does his Pollster.com poll composite graph look particularly joy-inducing:
This is close to the RealClearPolitics poll composite graph, although that one shows an upward trend:
A few thoughts:
31 Responses to “Poll: Support for Health Care Reform and Obama Go Up in December 6 Percent”
What, no panting?
The Dems are still working at damage control and recovery, a big salvage operation, against the trend, despite what some may loudly wish. Thom Hartmann got it right, even with his bias: No matter how bad, how pathetic a health care bill gets passed, the Dems should try to pass it and then they may be able to recover some of their electoral prospects (and reputation among lefties) next year.
Tom Coburn is the best thing to happen to the Democratic Party. Overheated rhetoric from people like like him (no, I don't think he was praying for Byrd's death, but I do think he was praying for some sort of misfortune to befall a Democratic Senator) has helped galvanize Democratic support behind the bill.
Meanwhile, local newspapers will be laying out all the things the bill does – and ignoring all the things it doesn't do or could have done given a different bill. It's a lot harder to rally opposition to a fait accompli.
''nuff said.
Nah, its some of the Howard Dean crew realizing they better grab what they can, while they can. Coburn's words and the idiotic hyperbole that liberals might try to invent over them has nothing to do with it.
Leonidas, did you hear him say it?
How predictable, and pathetic, when the polls seemed to indicate an increase in opposition to health care reform, that was “The Gospel.”
Now that the trend the other way it is “hyperbole”
The Tea Party movement was less about “stopping the bill in its tracks” and more about making sure it didn't turn into a bipartisan sellout. It succeeded far beyond its initial ambitions and expectations. After all, when the Tea Partiers initially coalesced, conventional wisdom had ObamaCare sailing through in July or August with a handful of Republican votes. There was also going to be a public option.
So let's apply the same logic to both sides. If the Democrats are to be buoyed by the success of getting cloture passed in the Senate, wouldn't the Tea Partiers also be buoyed by the several successes they achieved? And if the Tea Party is discouraged by it passing, aren't the liberals also discouraged by the loss of a public option, and the tawdry means required to achieve final passage?
I agree that it will be interesting indeed to see what happens over the next year. ObamaCare may be a rallying point for Obama to regain some confidence from voters, or may be the albatross that the Democrats willingly hung around their own necks.
Not as in with sound but saw it posted. The 6% increase is pretty unimportant when it means 42% for and 56% against. If it goes up another 6% then it becomes more important, until then its not.
???
Anyhow how long has it been since more approved than disapproved of the healthcare legisilation?
November 17th?
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/11/poll…
No.
Novemeber 6th?
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2009/11/06…
nope.
Hmmmm….. Let look at a history of the CNN polling
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/o…
well in October 16-18 there was a tie
CNN 10/16 – 10/18 1038 A 49 49 Tie
and a plus favorable rating can be found way back in September.
CNN 9/11 – 9/13 1012 A 51 46 For/Favor +5
Looking at the overall poll results for the many polls followed there, this bill hasn't had much public support recentlynor overall. Excuse me if I don't get too wound up about it climbing up a bit since earlier this month still talking a 14pt gap. I suspect it will tighten up a bit soon with more of the far left moving to the center left and away from the Howard Dean position so then you can have some better numbers for support. Haven't got there yet though.
“That's my story and I sticking to it.”
That's been the MO for the Bush era: never admit you're wrong; repeat the same illusion over and over again until people believe you. And now, it appears that Obama is no different. But, instead of WMD's, we have political expediency. It's all about getting elected again. About staying in power.
Well, I contributed to the Obama campaign thinking that we'd get a pragmatist. And, sure enough, we got one. Unfortunately, we get a political pragmatist instead of a pragmatic public servant.
Next time, I'm voting for someone who stands for something – not between something.
http://www.topnflnews.com/
Well, I have no clue what you mean by “6% iincrease” or those other percentages you gave, so I'm going to ignore that part, but what I will tell you is that I *did* hear Coburn say that the American people should pray that someone doesn't make it in for the vote, and his meaning was absolutely crystal clear. There was really nothing else he could possibly have meant. I mean, the words are what they are. Perhaps he was not specifically thinking of Sen. Byrd (although Sen. Byrd was the *only* Democratic senator who was not already there in the Senate), but he was certainly saying Americans should pray that one of the 60 Democratic senators would not make it in, because that is what he said. I mean, that is what he said. You know what I mean? He said it.
Yes, facts are stubborn things so stick your head in the sand by all means. I think your capable of reading the carts of the history of the polls linked above. Your a bright lady Kathy, you can do it, that is if you want to.
OMG you actually believe this drivel of a notion that Republican Senators pray for the death of Democratic colleagues? Thats right up there with the Sheldon Whitehouse bit about anyone who doesn't agree with healthcare reform being nazis, racists, etc. Those darned Republicans, they aren't wearing their healthcare Lapel pins!
Leonidas–
There's a just-released Quinnipiac Poll with these results:
It looks to me like 56-38 in favor of the public option!
And 64-30 in favor of single payer!
Right?
For the last six months, it seems to me that whatever any poll has said, or whichever direction any of these have moved, the only correlation that can be made is that Harry and Nancy will do their own thing.
Therefore, times will remain interesting and unpredictable, especially since the Obama administration and the DemCong have declared “We buy votes” and the left celebrates it as the venerable tradition of “sausage-making”.
As it goes into reconciliation, why should the bribes be limited to Senatorial holdouts? I would think Stupak, for one, would now be emboldened by these special fundings and exemptions to get even more aggressive.
Rather than wasting resources on polls, CNN ought to see if they can get some coverage of the next round of Dem backroom meetings.
That's good analysis DaMav, I like it.
Sorry Leo, but when it comes to “idiotic hyperbole” the objects of your contention have much catching up to do, any cherry-picking and heel clicking notwithstanding. Facts you say? They are indeed stubborn things… unfortunately they are often ignored when ideology is allowed to trump reality. Therein lies the danger.
I suspect that if this bill passes, it will eventually be seen as a significant step forward, not by just one party, but by the American people. The start is of course bumpy, the inevitable politicizing will continue, and tweaking will be necessary, but in time it will gain support across the board and be seen as evidence that democrats are trying to work in the interest of the American people… in contrast to another party that seems a little too content with the status quo. See how nice I said that?
I'm afraid that it's going to hurt the people it was meant to help. The premiums are going to increase dramatically and the supplements aren't going to be enough. Just as the mortgage assistance bills only drove up housing prices and interest on low-income families, and student loan bills drove up college costs, insurance expansion will drive up healths costs more than expected.
Polls we don't need no stinkin polls. If congress and the experts don't understand the true costs and consequences of the HCR bills, and they are making wild projections of costs and deficits going down the road 20 years, then how in the world can we answer their simplistic poll questions, pro or con. Polls are worse than statistics.
Nicely said. (snicker)
Now that is a valid point. Lets go back to the CNN Poll though and not a different source. Looking at that we see this:
So you could say if you combine the not liberal enough to the favor you'd get 55% vs 41%. That would also seem to favor your interpretration, and it may well be the case, but then again it may not. It really depends on how many favorable votes you would lose if you shift to the left. Thats the problem with polls about things that actually are not written down in their specifics. The Senate bill has specifics people are commenting on, a vague propossal about some policy without specifics generally gets more favorable response.
Your points are valid and you did a god job presenting them, but its an incomplete analysis without the actual details of such a deal. Unless such a legislation is actually put down on paper and the public sees it debated and dissected in all its components its still just a general idea. When the people start to see exactly how it might impact them, it can become quite a different creature.
Leonidas–
I pretty much agree with what you're saying about polls and the all-consuming locality of politics.
However, in your earlier comment you were kind of strident about facts and the reading of polls. That's what I was replying to.
Depending–I guess–on how the questions are asked, there's plenty of support for the sort of reform the Senate is approving. Or–depending I guess on how the questions are asked–the lack of support for the sort of reform the Senate is approving means catastrophe for the Democrats.
I think the fact that Democrats are trying to provide reforms will be good for them in the next election. I think the fact that Republicans are hammering their NO votes to proposed reform (with the backup plan of hoping some Senator gets too incapacitated to vote) will be bad for them in the next election.
Time will tell. That's why we have elections (and election campaigns).
And I imagine such former future presidents as Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani would agree with me about the long-term factuality of opinion polls.
Polls or no polls, this is my Christmas wish for Republicans and Democrats (and Indepedents) alike:
That the wealthy and the healthy will continue to enjoy the best health insurance money can buy, and that the poor who are sick will finally begin to enjoy the decent health care all Americans deserve.
Merry Christmas you all
Dorian
OMG you actually believe this drivel of a notion that Republican Senators pray for the death or illness of Democratic colleagues?
I believe what I hear people say. I believe that people need to take responsibility for the plain meaning of their words, even if they say it's not what they intended. When Sheldon Whitehouse made that outrageous hyperbolic statement about tumbrils in the street, etc., I criticized it. Here. In the same post where I criticized Tom Coburn's remark.
whats more likely, a wish that someone napped too long, or got stuck in the snow, or one that someone get sick or keel over dead?
It's not my job, or anyone else's, to try and mentally go through all the things Tom Coburn might have meant, and decide which meaning is most likely. It's Tom Coburn's job not to stand on the Senate floor and say that Americans should pray that someone can't make it to the vote that night. It's perfectly obvious that every senator was committed to being on the Senate floor when the time for the vote came. The only thing that would have prevented any senator from being in the Senate for the vote would have been misfortune, and it would have had to have been serious misfortune to keep them from the vote. It really does not matter what misfortune Coburn had in mind, or if he had ANY one particular misfortune or one particular senator in mind. What matters is that he urged Americans to pray for misfortune of some kind to befall a U.S. senator, and that is appalling.
This would be perfectly obvious to you if a Democratic senator had said the same thing in a similar situation (meaning if every Republican vote counted, as it did in that vote the other night). I am 100 percent certain that you would not be defending or dismissing or trying to find ridiculous unlikely meanings in this statement if a Democrat had said it. I am 100 percent certain that you would not be quoting an aide to Coburn to support you in your dismissiveness, and that the aide himself would not be so dismissive, if a Democratic senator had said it.
And the very fact that I have to say all this to you — that you are actually denying or dismissing or shrugging off the seriousness of a statement that is about as glaringly and blatantly obvious in its plain meaning as Coburn's was — utterly discredits everything you write here about even-handedness and criticizing both sides equally. If you cannot straightforwardly say that what Sen. Coburn said was indefensible and could not be reasonably understood any other way than as a prayer for misfortune to befall a U.S. senator, then you are as partisan in your criticism as they come. Which, of course, I already knew. I never take your statements about how partisan Democrats and liberals are seriously. But now you have provided demonstrable proof.
“If you think you’ve heard these same excuses before, you’re right,” Reid said. “When this country belatedly recognized the wrongs of slavery, there were those who dug in their heels and said, ‘Slow down, it’s too early, things aren’t bad enough.’ ”
LAS VEGAS – Harry Reid, the Senate majority leader, was having second thoughts – or was he? – about the way he had characterized people who are disrupting town halls with “lies, innuendo and rumor,” and not letting others speak. They are, he had said, “evil-mongers.”
Everyone shoots his mouth off from time to time, sometimes we even refuse to take them literally.
“The 6% increase is pretty unimportant when it means 42% for and 56% against.”
There are no limits to “stretching” and hype. The Dems are still in heavy damage control, recovery, and salvage operations, don't forget. (Could be later they become pre-emptive before resuming bad legislative efforts next year. Don't be surprise to see more polls showing a “tremendous rise” for them.)
I was making a point of a long running disapproval of the legislation over not only the CNN poll but others polls as well. I was not making a point about the reasons why there was disapproval, just that the majority is against it and has been for sometime now.
Kathy,
I shrug at hyperbole lacking fact like your last post all the time. Let me demonstrate:
*shrug*
Yes, facts are stubborn things so stick your head in the sand by all means. I think your capable of reading the carts of the history of the polls linked above.
What does carts of the history of the polls linked above mean? And what does history of polls have to do with urging Americans to pray that someone doesn't show up to a vote?
Your a bright lady Kathy, you can do it, that is if you want to.
Well, that's quite the compliment, coming from you, Leonidas, but I must demur. I am clearly not bright enough to have any clue what you're talking about or what it has to do with Sen. Tom Coburn.
I shrug at hyperbole lacking fact like your last post all the time. Let me demonstrate:
*shrug*
Oh, is that what that means? I thought you were doing that because your mind went blank and you had no idea what else to say.
Your beautiful when your mad.
You misspelled the first and fourth words: “You're beautiful when you're mad.” You're. It's a contraction for you are.
=P
Leonidas–
Even though we disagree about a bunch of issues, you seem like a sensible guy. You also seem well-informed, which means you know the polls are all over the place.
I actually find polls interesting. One of the things I find most interesting about them is, if the pollsters provide actual results, those results are often contradictory.
Earlier in this thread I linked to the now-famous Quinnipiac poll that showed plenty of support for reforms not in this legislation. There is definitely some unhappiness among the public about this legislation. It seems to me that what people want is more than what the Senate is willing to give. But since Republicans want to give even less–since Republicans have staked out a position of nothing but opposition–I don't see anything good in these poll results for Republicans. Without question, people who want no reform will complain that this reform is not perfect. Maybe that will be adequate. But probably this legislation is the best option for reform available under the circumstances. Possibly people will understand this as time passes. Certainly the Democrats could be doing a better sales job. And undoubtedly they will be giving it a try.
Polls are nothing but a slice of opinion at a given time. Results are volatile. Questions are often misleading. Answers may be oblique. And facts are stubborn things.
Time will tell.