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Lessons Learned? Well, Maybe

First, I’ll send you over to a longer column of mine which was just published over at PJM with some reflections on what we can take, if anything, from yesterday’s elections. In addition, though, I find myself pondering the alleged civil war in the GOP. The NY 23 special election was, after all is said and done, an aberration and a train wreck in the making pretty much from the beginning, and one which is unlikely to be repeated. The problem arose from New York State election law section 6-116 which dictates that in the event of a special election to fill a vacant office, there will be no primary. The candidates were, as has previously been noted, selected by county party officials.

In future elections, we’re going back to the standard system of holding a primary. Had that happened in the case of this year’s race, the locals would have almost undoubtedly selected a more moderate, conservative candidate and there would have been no need for any rampaging activity in support of Hoffman. Given a candidate suitable to the locals, no amount of sound and fury from the blogosphere or the Glenn Beck universe would have budged the electorate far from their own choice.

It’s a self-correcting system. In more Southern, social conservative areas you will already get a candidate in tune with those tendencies. But those influences from the outside aren’t going to be dragging any districts too far off track. New Jersey and Virginia have already put fairly moderate Republicans in their respective governors’ mansions and there’s no reason to think that a long established system is suddenly going to run haywire because of the wishes of a few.

  • vey9
    Party bosses hate primaries. Absolutely despise them and try to undermine them at every turn. They aren't supposed to choose sides in primaries, but they do. We got a chance to see how letting the party big shots choose the candidates would work out.
  • Davebo
    We got a chance to see how letting the party big shots choose the candidates would work out.


    They chose the incumbent who been elected several times. What should they have done, given the laws on the books?
  • Davebo
    Belay my last. I thought she was the incumbent but was indeed a state assemblyman.

    Duh!
  • Yeah, the incumbent headed off for a DC job, otherwise the problem never would have come up
  • GeorgeSorwell
    The local Republican Party nominated a candidate who has actually won elections in this area.

    It was national, not local, organizations that drove her out of the race.

    Now, all Republican incumbents should anticipate primary challenges from Club for Growth style candidates. Even if they come from relatively liberal states, like New York.
  • casualobserver
    As far as NY 23 goes, I think it unfounded for anyone to draw hard conclusions.......for all the non-traditional elements it involved as well as the fact that the number of votes cast is less than a lot of races for the office of county coroner.

    For moderate Republicans, or peanut gallery liberals, to suggest that this is a repudiation of conservative electoral viability is to suggest you can't read vote tallies.


    For conservatives to think they can readily set up a credible candidate of their choosing in races of their choosing is to suggest they have no grasp on time, money and logistics.

    The Althouse blog has a few posts from NY 23 voters. Even after reading those, I still don't see any consensus....other than people are feeling ornery and put upon. I suspect this election took place at a moment of cusp. Therefore too soon to tell whether the status quo gets to hang around or a more thorough shakeup is in the offing.






  • Speaking as a former resident of NY 23, I've found this entire episode utterly bizarre -- primarily because the North Country really is VERY unlike anywhere else in the US. And they know it. Not only that, but they really have NO liking for outsiders muscling their way in and trying to drive their business.
  • DLS
    The Dem mouthpieces have been making too much hype about this.

    First and foremost, we have to ask if this wasn't a case primarily about resentment toward outsiders. Note the vote totals for Scozzafava, even though she quit the race. A protest vote -- against what?

    It was a special case. Interestingly, it isn't just an issue about the non-primary "selection" method of putting a candidate on the ballot. In the case of New York, it's the presence of the Conservative party for ages as recognition that Republicans there have been Dems Lite too much, too often. ("Rockefeller Republican" is rightly used as a pejorative.)

    Regarding "Southern" imagery and related matters, it merits mention here as well that we shouldn't read too much into the Virginia elections insofar as it is a reversion to Religious-Right-dominated old-fashioned heavily Southern Republican (with a big Bible-Belt influence) caricature or stereotype the Left likes to use about the South or the GOP. That it's something of a model for the Sun Belt and the nation's future is obvious, but the picture is more complex than prejudiced lefties imagine (or contrive). Virginia actually has two large metro areas, one of which in particular ("northern Virginia" = DC metro) is known for electing Democrats, not only Republicans, and this change from the stereotype is what needs to be anticipated elsewhere in the South[east] and the rest of the Sun Belt "Red Nation" eventually.
  • DLS
    "For moderate Republicans, or peanut gallery liberals, to suggest that this is a repudiation of conservative electoral viability is to suggest you can't read vote tallies."

    Wishful, and often hateful, thinking and Feeling is what is happening in such cases.
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