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Last Night’s Results: Lesson Lost

Posted by PETE ABEL, Managing Editor in Politics.
Nov 4th, 2009 | Comments

This morning, I don’t entirely understand the crowing and chest-beating from ultra-conservatives, nor the smattering of headlines re: a “wake-up call” for, or “warning” to, Democrats.

Sure, governors might comment on federal policy, and they might some day run for federal office. But while governors are governors, they don’t cast votes in the Chambers of Congress on a President’s agenda. What’s more, Virginia’s history suggests that the “fluke” was not last night’s victory for GOP Governor-elect McDonnell, but President Obama’s win there last year. And in N.J., well, it seems no amount of life support from the White House (or God for that matter) would have helped the increasingly “unpopular” Gov. Corzine.

In contrast, Members of Congress get to actually vote on a President’s agenda — and in an area of New York State that has been a GOP stronghold for a century-and-a-half — a Democrat won, and he won after ultra-conservatives from around the country poured mega-dollars and mega-endorsements into their chosen candidate.

All that being said, we certainly do not need off-year election results to know that President Obama is not as widely loved as he was earlier this year, or to devine the unpopularity of the Democratic Congressional leadership among substantial swaths of the electorate. And that’s why the man-bites-dog news here is not about two victorious GOP candidates for Governor, but the massive upset in NY-23 of the ideologically “pure-or-nothing” conservative fringe.

UPDATE: John Cole reaches essentially the same conclusion.

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Janjanjan

Not as widely loved, but much of the not-love comes from the left which is dissatisfied with the speed with which he is achieving change. It's hard to see that segment of the population voting Republican next year. It seems more likely there will be more radical left wingers challenging the moderate Democrats. And if that means that we have a legislature filled with radicals on both sides of the aisle, we will simply move further from the center. The question is how we moderates can capture our frustration and use it to ensure centrists capture more seats on both sides.

TheMagicalSkyFather

First I would like to congratulate the GOP and its moderate members since last night was a HUGE win in my opinion. Yes Corzine was very unpopular and yes Virginia polls were saying that the voters wanted a change but I think it is very good news that the GOP is again considered a valid option when they run to fit their areas values. In moderate areas or big elections run as a moderate and in extreme areas you can run extreme I mean. The main reason I think it was such a big win is of course NY23 which I think can now put the more extreme elements of the party in the proper context and in the end I think this will hurt the Dems in 2010 since the GOP is much more likely to run moderates in moderate areas. I really doubt that Dems will primary anyone in 2010 and if the Netroots try i think they will fail short of someone torpedoing health care reform which I think everyone knows would get them primaried and possibly successfully. Either way congrats GOP you ran good campaigns and you are no longer in the leper colony, and thank you for pulling us back from what I fear was the brink of one party rule for any extended time. They may not take back congress in 2010 but it should at least be a pretty even split by 2012.

DaGoat

I think Democrats should be worried, because the GOP made some gains despite their being completely inept and undeserving, at least at the national level.

dduck12

I agree with the general thrust of your congratulations. My fear is that the GOP will give this too much credit. This was too small an election to extrapolate a greater trend. As you pointed out, they ran good campaigns, and they need to keep up a balanced attack with less ultra-right rhetoric. Maybe even try harder to work with the Dems.

GeorgeSorwell

The NY district would have stayed Republican if not for the interference of national organizations.

kathykattenburg

Pete, I think this is very well put. I think it's particularly stunning that Bill Owens won the congressional seat in New York, given as you say the fact it's a traditionally Republican seat and also given the money, and (I will say though you don't!) the hateful and extremist rhetoric from the GOP on this race.

I hope Dede Scozzafava can take some satisfaction from this result, given how badly she was treated.

adelinesdad

Ah yes:

Two solid governor race victories in battle-ground states? Insignificant because they don't vote in congress.

One Democratic victory in an upstate New York house district after a freak series of events unique to that district? A stunning message sent to the GOP.

Right.

DLS

What has been happening is primarily left-wing hype about the New York race, as some kind of "referendum on Palin and Limbaugh," which is nonsense. (That a GOP Lite-interchangeable-with-Dem still got many votes indicates a protest, and an outsider protest is almost the certain explanation here, that it was by outsiders, not their politics. New York has had a Conservative Party because many in the GOP there are "Rockefeller Republicans," which are in fact interchangeable with Democrats; the term is a pejorative.)

Elsewhere, the noteworthy races, won by the GOP, were dismissed dishonestly by lefties as insignificant or "about local results, only" even though all the elections involved nation-wide issue questions (#1, the economy and jobs; #2, health care) and an expression of dissatisfaction with how the Dems are currently behaving.

DLS

"This was too small an election to extrapolate a greater trend."

In more ways than one. Yes, the Upstate district was too small to indicate anything (it was odd, in fact). But more importantly, the hard-core Dem voters are apparently as fractured and "stalled" now as the Dems are in Washington. Their turnout was poor this week. That can't be expected a year from now.

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