Quote of the Day: New Poll Shows Republicans Shouldn’t Be Giddy Yet About Obama’s Political Fortunes

Our political Quote of the Day comes from the a Chris Cillizza Washington Post piece on a new poll which he notes has some big, fat, warning flags to Republicans who think that they have Barack Obama and the Demmies on the political ropes:

Republicans in Washington can barely contain their glee at the turn of President Obama’s political fortunes in the first nine months of the year but a new Washington Post/ABC News poll suggests the GOP still faces serious perception problems in the eyes of the American public.

Less than one in five voters (19 percent) expressed confidence in Republicans’ ability to make the right decisions for America’s future while a whopping 79 percent lacked that confidence.

Among independent voters, who went heavily for Obama in 2008 and congressional Democrats in 2006, the numbers for Republicans on the confidence questions were even more worse. Just 17 percent of independents expressed confidence in Republicans’ ability to make the right decision while 83 percent said they did not have that confidence.

(While Obama’s numbers on the confidence question weren’t amazing — 49 percent confident/50 percent not confident — they were far stronger than those for Republicans.)

This is part and parcel of the GOP strategy, which has been to offer reasons to oppose but not offering a comprehensive, viable alternative on some policies — alternatives that would appeal to Americans who aren’t talk radio or cable political show fans. Being enmeshed in the talk radio political culture means presenting aggressive arguments against a policy or, often, a heavy dose of snark. That can help fuel opposition and outright resistance. But in terms of offering an affirmative alternative, the GOP is falling short. MORE:

On the generic ballot question, 51 percent of the sample said they would cast a vote for a Democratic candidate in their congressional district next fall while just 39 percent said they would opt for a GOP candidate. (As late as this summer, Republicans had seemingly narrowed the wide generic ballot lead Democrats enjoyed for much of the last two election cycles.)

This number — no matter how it falls — can be seen as less significant since if there is ire against Congress in general then there could be many votes against whomever holds the seat, regardless of party. But it again shows that the GOP is not making its case sufficiently beyond its own party base. It’s shoring up its supporters but not increasing its [support.

More evidence of that:

And, perhaps most troubling for GOP hopes is the fact that just 20 percent of the Post sample identified themselves as Republicans, the lowest that number has been in Post polling since 1983. (No, that is not a typo.)
These numbers, coming roughly one year before the 2010 midterm elections, show that any celebration on the GOP’s behalf is premature as the party has yet to convince most voters that it can be a viable alternative to Democratic control in Washington today.

Cillizza is correct in saying that the GOP needs to convince most voters that it is a “viable” alternative.

But it is also worth adding that part of this is that it has not convinced Americans not already in the GOP choir that the present incarnation of GOP high-profile-media faces (which include legislators and media types such as Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck) can offer an affirmative alternative.

Cillizza has one of the best summaries of the poll. He has more to say, so go to the link to read it in full.

Most news from this poll centered on its latest reading of how the public views the “public option” in the health care reform debate. MSNBC’s First Read notes:

Wow, did the Washington Post pump up a very minor uptick when it comes to the public option. Last month in the Post/ABC poll, 55% supported the idea (in the way they worded it); this month, that number is 57%. But today’s headline (“Public option gains support”) is all public option advocates will need. Will the poll be a turning point in the Senate/White House merger negotiations as they wrestle with whether to include some form of a public option in the bill that’s offered on the floor? To be fair, this is the fourth time when majorities in the Post/ABC poll have favored the public option. Perhaps that is what the paper was trying to point out…

And it’s trite to say it, but let’s say it again:

Polls are mere snapshots in time. Partisans who like a finding will sometimes hype them; partisans who don’t will attack the poll’s methodology, which they usually don’t attack when they’re happy about the same company’s poll findings. But polls can shift quickly. The key is the trending on the polls.