Are new tensions about to swirl around Afghanistan? At a time when President Barack Obama and his advisers are huddled in comprehensive reviews of the war and what do do next, recent elections and the next phase of U.S. involvement, the New York Times reports that an audit of election results submitted today “appeared likely to show that President Hamid Karzai had won about 48 percent.”
Attributing this tidbit to a “Western official familiar with: the results — which could mean a military official, European official, or an Obama administration official defusing what would be a big international story. The Times reports:
The findings could force a runoff vote with Mr. Karzai’s top challenger, but it was unclear whether Mr. Karzai would accept the findings.
The auditors did not immediately publicize their conclusions, which they handed to the independent election committee that will announce the final results. The report caps more than eight weeks of waiting and may bestow a greater legitimacy on the government that eventually emerges, something the United States has strongly urged.
Mr. Karzai’s campaign officials have complained about the work of the five-member panel, saying that foreigners were unfairly influencing its outcome. And Mr. Karzai himself indicated this weekend that he might oppose the results, setting off a flurry of last-minute diplomacy by western officials.
If he is shown to have won less than 50 percent of the vote, a widely anticipated conclusion, Mr. Karzai has few legal options. A runoff with his main opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, is constitutionally mandated to take place within two weeks. But Mr. Karzai could use his influence over the Independent Election Commission, the Afghan body that will certify Monday’s results, to reject the findings.
That would pitch Afghanistan into a constitutional crisis just as the Obama administration is trying to make a decision on whether to send more troops here to halt the Taliban’s advance in the country’s deepening war.
According to the AP, nearly a third of the votes have been voided by UN backed fraud investigators.
This would be a perfect storm for the Obama administration. It’s clear the administration has been waiting for some resolution of the election controversy before it made its own decisions about what to do next in Afghanistan. AFP reports:
US President Barack Obama was on Monday to meet his top advisers on Afghanistan policy as aides warned it would be irresponsible to send more US troops before the strife-torn nation’s election crisis is resolved.
“I think it would be irresponsible and… it would be reckless to make a decision on US troop level if, in fact, you haven’t done a thorough analysis of whether in fact there’s an Afghan partner ready to fill that space,” top White House advisor, chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel said on Sunday.
Two months after Afghanistan’s August 20 presidential elections, the count has been bogged down by allegations of widespread fraud, mostly in favor of President Hamid Karzai.
Karzai, a key US ally who has led his country since December 2001, is said by preliminary results to have won about 55 percent of the vote.
But amid the accusations, he has come under mounting pressure to accept a run-off against his rival, ex-foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah reported to have garnered about 28 percent of the vote.
The electoral stalemate is complicating a major US policy review on Afghanistan ordered by Obama, with the number of US troops there already set to reach 68,000 by the end of the year.
“It would be entirely irresponsible for the president of the United States to commit more troops to this country, when we don’t even have an election finished and know who the president is and what kind of government we’re working with,” said US Senator John Kerry.
Kerry, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and close Obama ally, made some of the bluntest US criticism of Karzai yet during a fact-finding visit to Kabul.
The Guardian offers this Q&A on the Afghanistan elections.
In any runoff, Karzai would face former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah, who got 28 percent of the vote to Karzai’s 55 percent in the preliminary count.
Sweden, which holds the rotating presidency of the European Union, appealed to Afghans to respect the ECC’s ruling, Agence France-Presse reported. “If these results point towards the need for a second round, a second round must be held,” Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt told reporters in Brussels.
An unidentified European diplomat said Bildt’s appeal was triggered by a report that Karzai might resist accepting a runoff, AFP said. Today’s decision by the United Nations-backed panel must by law be implemented by the Independent Election Commission, which Karzai appointed.
Reuters offers this snap analysis.
UPDATE: The BBC’s story has the White House response, which is basically saying to Afghanistan that the ball is now in their court:
A panel probing fraud claims in the Afghan election has found Hamid Karzai did not gain enough valid votes for an outright win, the BBC understands.
Preliminary results from August’s first round had placed Mr Karzai comfortably over the 50% plus one vote threshold needed to avoid a runoff.
Under poll rules, Mr Karzai now faces a runoff against rival Abdullah Abdullah.
The White House said it was “incredibly important” for the world to see a legitimate Afghan government.
“It is now up to the Afghans to demonstrate they believe in that legitimacy as well,” said spokesman Robert Gibbs.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.