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Dollar May Be Dropped In Oil Trade (Guest Voice)

Dollar May Be Dropped In Oil Trade

by John Wells

A troubling article in the UK Independent reports that Gulf Arabs are planning with China, Russia and France to begin dropping the dollar as the trading currency for oil and moving to a hodgepodge of currencies including the Chinese yuan, the Japanese yen and the euro. Meetings have already been held discreetly by the involved finance ministers, and though it seems the US is aware of the planned move, the details weren’t yet known.

If it’s true, it signals a devastating worldwide blow to an already hammered dollar. On one hand, you can’t blame other nations for moving away from America’s currency with our current economic and budgetary woes. The move would leave America with a decidedly lessened global influence in fiscal and monetary matters and solidify a growing Chinese stranglehold on Middle Eastern oil in Iraq and Iran.

The whispers seemed to have mutated into the writing on the wall. Through whatever mechanism of blame, America’s global influence is on the decline. Our dollar weakens while our manufacturing and production is outsourced to other nations, all while government spending grows out of control and the federal debt increases with each passing day.

Against this backdrop America should be strengthening its own economic foundation instead of expanding government entitlements and running up record deficits. Instead of road signs and seasonal construction we should be fortifying and buttressing our manufacturing and tech sectors. Instead of pleading for China to finance more of our debt we should cut the burden of government spending and let the engine of American commerce sputter back to relevance.

The wild card is Chinese ownership of American debt, which would leave Beijing with a vested interest in making sure the dollar remains at least somewhat strong to ensure their investments aren’t worthless. And there’s always the chance that the report is overly alarmist, but even if it is, the trends still point in the same direction – America’s stock is down on the world market. It’s precisely the wrong time to expand government at the expense of the economy, but it’s what we’re poised to do with likely disastrous results.

Jonathan Wells is a 28-year-old husband and father who lives in Ohio and has a day job in the microbiology field. He notes that he tends “be conservative in most of my views, but by no means do I bear blind allegiance to a political party.” He stresses that he is open-minded and encourages “any civil disagreement (or uncivil agreement) any of you would care to express.” He likes to make people think – and does so on his blog Wellsy’s World.

  • nahummer
    Funny to watch the reaction to that Independent article today. Reuters was quickly out with a denial story:
    http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/091006/busin...
    Even funnier is the 'oh, really, how could this happen to the all mighty dollar' feel that some of these stories have. I like the line in this article "The whispers seemed to have mutated into the writing on the wall" but may have taken it one step further, as the reality is concrete actions to replace the dollar have been happening for awhile now. One of many posts I've written:
    http://theendisalwaysnear.blogspot.com/2008/06/...
  • navigator
    Good article, and I agree that "buttressing our manufacturing and tech sectors" is a big part of the solution. To strengthen these sectors, I would suggest two steps: (1) appropriate reduction in business taxation and regulation, and (2) real education reform. If we must maintain the current failing model of public education, at least do this - have standardized tests for achieved skills by grade level that are given at the beginning and the end of the school year, and pay bonuses to teachers in proportion to the increase (change) of scores during the year. Since they would be based on the increase, this would factor out the effect of income, because lower income schools might have lower ending scores, but they would usually also have lower starting scores, and the increase would be the same or greater than the high income areas. Would teachers then teach to the test? Probably - but if the test were about real skills (e.g., reading and math) instead of state-approved "values" and social indoctrination, teachng to the test would not be all that bad.
  • "Against this backdrop America should be strengthening its own economic foundation instead of expanding government entitlements and running up record deficits. "

    Of course if we cut government spending and welfare now, our economy will plunge to depths not seen since we last tried these Hooverite policies. Not to mention the human suffering that will ensue.
  • vey9
    "our manufacturing and tech sectors" is a big part of the solution."

    This gets discussed a lot, but I've finally realized the fact is that the US has robust tech and manufacturing sectors. The things they make are not what consumers are likely to use. When 7 out of 10 of the nation's engineers go to work in one sector, it is bound to take a toll on the other sectors.

    What's the robust sector am I talking about? "United States -- Arms Merchant to the World"
  • AustinRoth
    If the Obama administration would stop treatomg the Fed as Monopoly money and printing it at will, that would help, too.

    But I get the feeling that this is all part of where the Obama team wants the U.S. to go - subjugated to the Global Powers, rather than a Global leader.
  • Don Quijote
    Our dollar weakens while our manufacturing and production is outsourced to other nations, all while government spending grows out of control and the federal debt increases with each passing day.


    ROTFLMAO...

    The result of Cheap Labor Conservatism.

    Conservatives/Republicans have been the dominant faction in American politics for the last thirty years, their favored policies have been implemented and we can now see the results.

    Conservatives can be broken up into three broad tendencies:
    Social Conservatives, Business Conservatives(AKA Cheap Labor Conservatives) and National Conservatives (AKA Neo-Cons).

    Social Conservatives have lost on damn near every issue: Contraception is easily available, Abortion is still legal, Divorce Rates are still running at 50%, Out of wedlock birth rate still going up, Drugs are cheaper than ever, Affirmative Action has not been ended, racism has been ostracized or criminalized and gay marriage is right around the corner.

    National Conservatives (AKA Neo-Cons) have gotten what they wanted, unfortunately for us what they wanted was war, unfortunately for them they are losing the wars they wanted, having dropped a few trillion dollars, they destroyed the countries they invaded but are unable to control them, the second the US Military leaves those countries, all the natural resources we went there to control will fall into our adversaries hands.

    Business Conservatives(AKA Cheap Labor Conservatives) have gotten most of what they wanted, so what did they want? No Taxes, No Regulation and No Wages.
    No Taxes: they have taken capital gains taxes down to as low as 15% from a high of 70% in the fifties, they have take down the top marginal income tax rate down to 35% from a 90% rate in the fifties. They have reduced corporate tax rates to damn near zero.
    No Regulations: They have deregulated entire industries, Airlines, Trucking, Banking, Finance and when they could not deregulate, they made sure that the regulators were underfunded and understaffed (OSHA, Department of Labor, USDA, etc...)
    No Wages: There, they have not quite succeeded, but no for lack of trying. Wages have been stagnating since the mid 70's. This was done through a combination of immigration (legal and illegal), off-shoring ( a good way of destroying unions), and technology.

    So basically the only people who got what they wanted over the last thirty years were the "Cheap Labor Conservatives", and their policies goals were pretty straight forward, they wanted everything, they wanted it now, damn the consequences. Better to be the wealthy rulers of a third world nation, than to be the competent managers of a modern democratic industrial society.
  • To say China will 'solidify' their hold on mid-east oil implies that the USA is going to disappear from the chessboard. Currently, China doesn’t even have a blue sea navy- let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
  • shannonlee
    This really isn't "new" news. They have been talking about this for quite some time now. I wish I could remember when I first heard about this, it was at least a year ago, if not longer.

    This is a direct result of Bush Admin policies that have weakened our economy and standing in the world.
  • vey9
    At least five years that I remember.
    Wiki has an article about the Iranian Bourse.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_oil_bourse
  • casualobserver
    Yes, those lousy Bush administration policies to continually cut interest rates so that liberals could buy houses they couldn't afford.
  • DLS
    [Inflation...]

    "But I get the feeling that this is all part of where the Obama team wants the U.S. to go - subjugated to the Global Powers, rather than a Global leader."

    ... and more. Not only inflation, eventually. (Expect Krugman and other hacks to leap to the forefront of arguing in favor of "correctly managed" and "an optimal level of" inflation, etc.) Don't forget regulation and "harmonization" not only of taxes (and eventual plundering of offshore tax havens as a one-shot grab, whenever propitious), but of regulations. Don't forget the traveling junkets--excuse me, conferences primarily bouncing between Washington or New York and favored European sites where these people can frequently get together (at taxpayer expense) and discuss the details of such things, and more...
  • nahummer
    Or even before that. That is if we count Saddam's attempt to switch over, but we know what happened to him...
    http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2000/12/22/2000/...
  • JeffersonDavis
    "Social Conservatives have lost on damn near every issue: Contraception is easily available, Abortion is still legal, Divorce Rates are still running at 50%, Out of wedlock birth rate still going up, Drugs are cheaper than ever, Affirmative Action has not been ended, racism has been ostracized or criminalized and gay marriage is right around the corner."

    You just made the point for me.
    Because Social conservatives have lost on damn near every issue:
    Divorce is up
    Out of wedlock birth rate is up.
    Abortion is still legal as a form of contraception.
    Drugs are cheaper than ever.
    Racism has been ostracized (that's actually a good thing)
    and
    Gay marriage is right around the corner.

    Sounds to me that it may be time for Social Conservatism to win a few to nip those trends in the bud.
  • Amazing Stuff thanx :)
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