Sabato’s Crystal Ball – RED DAWN: GOP REVIVAL FOR 2010 HOUSE?

Isaac T. Wood and Larry J. Sabato: RED DAWN: GOP REVIVAL FOR 2010 HOUSE? Republicans will pick up substantially, but fall short of full control

While the next slate of House elections does not occur until 2010, congressmen and their challengers certainly don’t take off the “off-year.” Instead, this year is a crucial one for the parties who must prove their recruiting chops, for the incumbents who seek big fundraising numbers and positive headlines, and for the challengers who have to prove their ability to take down a sitting member of Congress. And that doesn’t even include the open races, 18 so far, where incumbents have announced they will not seek reelection. In those districts, both parties are scrambling to find candidates who can quash takeover hopes or, conversely, take advantage of this rare opportunity.

Generally speaking, the president’s party loses seats in midterm elections, as the Crystal Ball discussed in May. The actions of the president, even more than that of the Congress itself, shape the mood of the electorate and can help determine the magnitude of this legislative loss. The other main determinant of the potential for losses and gains is the national playing field. After picking up a net total of 54 House seats in the past four years, Democrats will be defending a lot of Republican Red turf. All told, 49 Democratic House members sit in districts which voted for Republican presidential candidate John McCain last November, while only 34 Republican congressmen sit in districts won by President Obama. Given the magnitude of Obama’s victory, these numbers understate the problem Democrats face, since some normally Republican districts were swept along in the Obama tide, but will likely return to their GOP roots in 2010 (and possibly in 2012, too).

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ALSO: Isaac T. Wood asks, “Is the GOP on the cusp of another 1994?”