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Is Obama Sinking In All The Polls? Or Not?

Posted by JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief in Politics.
Sep 4th, 2009 | Comments

A lot of websites and blogs including this one have run stories and blog posts about President Barack Obama going south in the polls. But is that already outdated? Gallup sees him on the upswing.

It’ll be interesting to see what kind of impact the latest broo-ha-ha has on Obama’s ratings. Will it peel off some more of his independent voter and Republican support? Or will it have the opposite impact: turn off some voters who might be getting tired of watching to angry 24/7 outrage, even if they are not huge fans of Obama? (Stay tuned..)

FOOTNOTE: Note that all polls don’t agree. Each polling company has its own methodology. Gallup has generally been one of the more respected ones, but generally many partisans embrace a poll when it shows their side ahead and question the methodology of it when it shows their side behind (you almost never hear someone question the methodology if their side is ahead..). Trending is also important.

Pollster.com’s average of polls doesn’t show a huge upswing for Obama, but it shows a leveling off or slight increase:

RealClearPolitics’ average shows an upswing:

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shannonlee

People are probably getting saturated by the health care debate. They are tuning out because they are tired of hearing about it. By tuning out, they remove themselves from the constant Obama bashing, which can change their opinions slightly...which might give Obama a little push in the polls.

TheMagicalSkyFather

If you watched it daily the dip came around the time he backed off the Public Option and then flattened out when he came back to it. Then they began to rise again around the time that the White House announced the health care speech. Take from it what you will but I do find it interesting and it does say the public is watching the debate pretty closely.

Leonidas

Gee Joe, how many days you have to wait to catch one poll moving up? Show a week or two of upward movement among most of the polls and you might have something. Been a pretty constant drop for sometime now, one little blip is no reason to thinkhis numbers are now going to begin moving up. Its not like he has done anything lately to effect a major change in them.

DLS

"Gee Joe, how many days you have to wait to catch one poll moving up?"

Well, the progressives _are_ somewhat peeved that Obama may "waver" on the "public option."

TheMagicalSkyFather

Actually it has been moving up for about a week now. I had been keeping silent on it thinking it was just a normal ebb and flow but it does seem to be moving back up and the negatives have been falling as well. To be honest I expected it after next Wed. but was not expecting the current rise.

DLS

Obama's in such trouble, and preoccupied right now, that why wouldn't Netanyahu make news?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087...

SteveK

Well with the Health Industries spending $1,400,000 a day and the Republicans spinning and rehashing lies and misrepresentations about Obama it should come as no surprise that his numbers slid but as TheMagicalSkyFather notes a good part of his slide was on his side of the aisle... People who want legitimate health reform.

If he returns to his original position his numbers will continue to rise AND if the right keeps up their distortions, deceptions, and lies their number have nowhere to go but south.

TheMagicalSkyFather

I am actually stunned that his polls have not fallen further but I may be remembering Clinton's issues a bit too much. Of course Obama split the opposition up by making deals with pharma and the ins. industry though. The other thing that stuns me is that Clinton dropped when they were trying to put it together, Obama's issues came up right as they were beginning to make the sprint to the floor vote. I am starting to believe something significant will be done this time.

elrod

Probably a lot of hemming and hawwing on the left. Indies who like him still do. Indies who don't, don't. The super-soft support disappeared over the course of the health care debate. If the left feels engaged Obama's numbers trend up a bit. The right has long ago detested him.

A lot of core Democrats are like me: supportive of the President in his overall agenda and his personality, but a little bit antsy right now about getting his agenda passed. Mostly, though, we're patient. The hardcore DailyKos diarist crowd not so patient.

redbus

I rarely read DailyKos.com - don't live in the same universe, it seems - but I took a quick peek yesterday. They were lamenting that President Obama's polls were sliding. If even Kos admits it, then I tend to believe it.

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