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One Of Two New Polls Shows Obama Falling Support At 50%
Two new polls are out and neither have good news for President Barack Obama as his Presidency nears the 200 day mark: A CNN poll has him dropping 7 points in a month, to a 56% approval rating while a new Quinnipiac Poll puts him at 50 percent.
The big drop? According to CNN the biggest drop and the one that is doing the most damage is amont white male voters — a sign of both the damage Obama inflicted on himself in his initial comments about the Gates affair and what some analysists say is the GOP’s return to the white voter strategy that paid dividends for the party in past elections.
Details from CNN:
As President Obama approaches 200 days in the White House, a new national poll shows his approval rating has dropped seven points since the 100-day mark in April.
he CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey released Thursday morning also indicates that while just one in five Americans say that the current economic conditions are good, the number who feel the economy is in very poor shape is dropping.
Fifty-six percent of those questioned in the poll approve of how Obama is handling his duties as president. Four in 10 disapprove.
The 56 percent approval is down five percentage points from June, and represents a drop of seven points from the president’s April showing. The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. figures are in line with numbers from most other national polls out the past few weeks. See the full results (pdf)
“Since April, Obama’s rating has stayed steady among white women, but he has dropped 14 points among white men. A majority of white men supported him at the 100-day mark, but now most white men disapprove of how he is handling his job,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. “Obama has also slipped among non-whites, but he still gets support from over 70 percent of that group.”
And a warning flag for Obama: the numbers are now turning against him on the economy:
The number one issue dominating the first six months of the Obama presidency has been the economy. According to the poll, 44 percent say that Obama’s polices have so far made the economy better, with just of half of Americans saying they haven’t had a positive effect.
Should the GOP be happy? Not entirely:
So who is getting blamed for the current economic conditions? The survey indicates that more than four in 10 are pointing fingers at Republicans, with around one in four blaming the Democrats and another one in four saying both parties are equally at fault.
“The bad news for the GOP is that they get twice as much blame as the Democrats,” says Holland. “The good news for the GOP is that the number of Americans who blame them is now below 50 percent.”
Meanwhile, Quinnipeac has Obama at a new low:
–Obama has a 50 – 42 percent job approval rating, down from 57 – 33 percent July 2.
–Voters disapprove 49 – 45 percent of the way the President is handling the economy.
And while voters approve of the way he’s handling foreign affairs 52-38 percent, they disapprove 52-39 percent to the way he’s handling health care.
This number likely represents liberal Democrats (he isn’t doing enough and has deferred to moderates and not use the Democrat’s majority and clout skillfully) and conservative Republicans (he wants to do too much too quickly). It’s likely that number it isn’t just that you can’t please all of the people all of the time but you can displease two sides some of the time.
What does it mean? Polls translate into clout and this makes Obama and his policies a more tempting target for Republicans. It could also encourage those GOPers who play to not just attend the Townhall meetings Democrats plan on health care but to disrupt them and effectively halt real communication at the meetings. The media — as these media cycles go — will have a new narrative (Obama losing support).
In essence, it’s approaching crunch time and will be a test as to whether Obama and his White House team can reverse a trend. Do they have the skillfull policies, the party unity, and organization to get proposed policies through? Is their highly touted press message prowess vastly overrrated and not working?
The bottom line: Obama’s political capital and clout aren’t what they were two months ago. And if the GOP is indeed returning to a “white voter strategy,” a some suggest nothing in these polls would do anything but encourage the party to keep doin’ what it’s doin — in terms of what it means in polls, at least..
19 Responses to “One Of Two New Polls Shows Obama Falling Support At 50%”
Where is the big, giant, prominent down arrow that accompanied every Bush drop in the polls? Just for consistency and fairness, mind you.
AR,
I’m surprised that you’re disparaging Joe’s article for the simple lack of the dramatic graphics that were his trademark in the Bush years.
Let us applaud the courage it takes to post this. Just as young German children were encouraged to report their parents for anti-government speech in 1939, Kathy Kattenburg is surly burning up the InterTubes reporting Joe’s infamnia to the White House.
According to Byron York, Joe could end up on the permanent Presidential enemies list.
As for me, I’m just going to sit quietly and try to avoid the reeducation camps that will teach Joe that dissent (or unhelpful fact reporting) is not appreciated.
“Moderate”. You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.
We all know this was bound to happen. It happens to every President. Sadly for some, it proves that Obama is not a god. They'll have to find something else to worship.
We also all knew that health care reform was going to cost a lot of political capital.
Too funny jwest… A few articles down you bitch about how Joe doesn't write about Obama's poll numbers and now that he does you think you need to come back with snark.
Keep up the good work, your comments exhibit “your side” just the way we want the general public to see you… Your constant drone of negativism is music to the ears for those wanting new direction and change… a better America.
AustinRoth – When someones (Bush) ratings plummet from the high eighty's to the mid twenties a “big, giant, prominent down arrow” IS appropriate whereas a 10% drop from Inauguration Day to today (seven + months), considering all the problems he inherited, shouldn't surprise anyone. Considering the distorted half truths, mischaracterizations and blatant lies being used by the opposition you should be wondering why his ratings haven't fallen even more.
Obama can blame two things – himself and the capacity for white American men to jump at every GOP-manufactured narrative that stars them as the rugged, misunderstood hero.
Steve,
I know there was never any snark by liberals during the Bush years, but I’ll take my chances that I won’t single handedly loose the election next time.
Here’s an interesting article:
After 6 Months, More View Obama's Presidency as a 'Failure' Than Bush's
http://realclearpolitics.blogs.time.com/2009/08…
To an extent I agree with Steve that the degree of poll number deflation hasn't reached anywhere near the point that Bush's did- yet it's still a pretty rapid drop and shows some real problems developing for Obama and the Dems.(I also couldn't help laugh at Steve's comments about lies and distortions from Obama's opponents- it's not like any of that contributed to Bush's declining popularity or anything!)
One point not shown in the summary of the Quinnipiac poll that Joe linked to is that Obama is losing support from Independents- they're now evenly split, 45-45. That could definitely signal trouble- his clout depends on keeping more than just Dems on his side (and as Joe points out, he loses some of them anyway for not being enough of a purist on lefty ideals.)
Ahhhh, to be an aggrieved conservative. You're never out of work because you see conspiracy in everything. Now, it's poll graphics. Context doesn't matter, it's just all a matter of who's team is winning. Viva la tribalism!
In the meantime, good analysis by Joe. I wonder if the slow economic upturn will eventually translate into halting the slide for Obama. His problems are so many now that he can't simply speech his way out of them. Looking at his poll numbers on issues, he might try to do a major foreign initiative to provide cover for himself on health care, because he probably doesn't want to take the heat from the left and the glee from the right when it doesn't pass.
If he's a smart man he'll ignore the polls and keep on trucking. His approval rating with the people I talk to continues to be high and in the 80%. CNN is the new Fox anyway. I'm beginning to not trust what they say.
Besides, they're [GOP influence over CNN] is hoping for a stampede. Monkey see, monkey do. People who don't think for themselves and have to rely on the bugle-call of the member of the herd with the biggest cowbell around their neck are the most susceptible to these poll manipulations. People who don't think follow the polls. People who do think pay attention to the broader issues like the fact that Obama cannot perform miracles and right the nearly fatal mess the GOP left our country with when we fired them last Fall.
How soon we forget…
“After 6 Months, More View Obama's Presidency as a 'Failure' Than Bush's
http://realclearpolitics.blogs.time.com/2009/08…
I'm surprised those people are capable of even communicating that belief.
Obama still brings a smile to a large majority of the people I talk to.
Not only is this an echo of the journalists who couldn't believe that Nixon had won the election because 'no one they knew voted for him', it's also an absurd measure of a president. Policy, schmolicy, I guess…as long as he makes us smile!
TMV has swallowed the down arrow.
If Obama and Gandelman both truly wish for the economy to improve above all partisan goals, then you both should welcome this development.
History as shown the markets/private sector investment perform the best when government policy is static (absence of major changes).
Once the realization that there will actually be no major healthcare legislation takes better hold and Obama's numbers keep him from anything but small bore initiatives, business investment will really start to improve causing orders and hiring to go up.
Thanks for your selflessness, guys.
“CNN is the new Fox anyway”
You'd have to be a hard core kool-aid drinking liberal to believe that. You probably think MSNBC is fair and balanced
Seriously, if you think CNN is to the right and MSNBC isn't far left….you are no different than those people that believe FOX is fair and balanced.
I know what I know. You can go on spewing the spin till the cows come home. I stand by what I say and trust my sources. The numbers do not reflect reality and CNN is responsible this time around. They shouldn't put their stamp on something that can attract attention to what they are up to.
“This number likely represents liberal Democrats (he isn’t doing enough and has deferred to moderates and not use the Democrat’s majority and clout skillfully)”
LOL not quite Joe, with all due respect your analysis seems off. Here is why:
From the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute August 5th
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1357
“Independent voters, perhaps the key voting group, are more worried about the deficit rising than congressional inaction, 54 – 37 percent. These voters say 59 – 36 percent that overhaul should not occur if it would “significantly” increase the deficit. Independents oppose 63 – 33 percent passing a bill with only Democratic votes.
Independent voters also don't think Obama can keep his promise to avoid increasing the deficit and pass health care by an overwhelming 77 – 17 percent.
“The key to this political battle over health care out in the country is independent voters. And that bloc is the key to most elections,” Brown added. “These are the voters who broke strongly for the President last November and who were in his corner during the first months of his administration. But on these key health care questions they are siding with critics who question whether health care reform is worth the projected cost.”
Support for Obama's handling of health care is down among key groups:
Women disapprove 49 – 41 percent, down from a 48 – 39 percent approval July 1;
Voters 18 to 34 years old disapprove 48 – 44 percent, down from a 54 – 35 percent approval;
Low income voters disapprove 47 – 43 percent, down from a 49 – 37 percent approval.
Since Quinnipiac University's July 1 survey, support for a government-run option has fallen from 69 – 26 percent to 62 – 32 percent and the number who would rather buy insurance from a private rather than public insurer has jumped from 53 – 28 percent to 61 – 25 percent. “
———-
Looks to me like independent dissent is the reason for the low numbers fueled by increased deficit spending, and Democrats rushing through legislative efforts without working more accross the aisle. This is not Obama giving into Moderate influences but exactly the opposite according to the poll data, is the dissatisfaction of independents and moderates that Obama is defferring to the liberal wing of the Democratic Party too much.
This footage analyzes a few other key reasons why Obama's ratings are plummeting. http://www.newsy.com/videos/obama_approval_rati…
Left and right paridigm a false illusion that brainwashed Americans, still beleive in. All presidents are puppetts,working for the corrupt bankers. They have caused despair in the world bc they are against humanity.They are SATANIC worshippers, yes that is fact. Look up Bohemian grove, the elites go there to party.How stupid are people in this world? Watch the Obama deception to see who is control! So people you have been duped and will be duped again.WHEN will you rise! It is beggining,How does it feel to be duped time and time again! You must like it,bc you have been brainwashed. By the WAY the FEDERAL RESERVE has stolen 23 trillion dollars and society does nothing. What a pathetic society we are. Most don”t like the truth bc they cannot accept it.The WORLD is run by lunatic people with insane objectives. SIMPLE rise non compliance dont accept!!!!!!!!