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Obama’s Sagging Polls: Do They Tell The Whole Story?
As we’ve noted here, as President Barack Obama continues to stumble (not having political Congressional on-board numbers to pass healthcare reform as he previously described it plus the foot-in-mouth entry into the African-American professor versus white cop case which led to a beefest yesterday between the three at the White House) his once lofty poll numbers have starting going south — ending up now approximately where they were on election night.
But do the polls tell the whole story? If Obama is not exactly a “Teflon” President is it turning out that he is not a Velcro President but one who is showing signs of being at least a bit...Teflon? Note this tidbit from NBC’s Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg:
As we mentioned yesterday, one of us attended a focus group of 12 self-described independents that Democratic pollster Peter Hart conducted on Wednesday night in Towson, MD, which is just outside of Baltimore. Seven of these independents voted for Obama last November, four voted for McCain, and one voted for Nader. While almost all of the participants were down on the current state of the nation and other American politicians, many of them — including some who voted for McCain — had positive things to say about Obama or were hopeful about his presidency. Asked about her opinion about Obama after his first six months in office, Marsha, 59, a McCain voter, responded, “Just hopeful… I just see what’s on his plate.” Hart observed afterward, “Don’t get fooled by the [poll] numbers alone. There is something strong there” regarding attitudes about Obama.
This underscores something worth noting. The discussions generated on talk radio, cable, weblogs or in media discussions or analyses may not always indicate the feelings “out there.” They often indicate the feelings of people who have a vested interest (a media outlet, a career, or an emotional tie to a party for which they are actively working) in not just policy but either who wins or keeping controversies alive. It is conceivable that the polls are not telling the whole story in terms of the perceptions (and patience) of independent voters — who, as we note here constantly, are not monolithic group.
They key for Obama is going to be whether he is going to wind up being a boon to the GOP by helping it reconstitute what in November appeared to be a tattered and — and whether conservative Democrats or liberal Democrats wind up so angry or disappointed in him that they stay home in 2010 or 2012.
What this tidbit does underline, however, is that most people who aren’t running around demanding to have a notarized copy of Obama’s birth certificate placed in their hands, or who aren’t fans of ideological media talk show hosts, are willing to give him a chance.
They honeymoon is over but there are no signs of an impending divorce yet. The “yet” is what Obama has to work on in terms of sound policy and better prepared politics (even a head of cabbage could have predicted that his words on a hotbutton issue such as the Gates arrest would have been perfect pounce material for talk show hosts, journalists, partisans and bloggers).
“Hope” can turn to “Nope” pretty quickly — but Obama isn’t in GWB or Jimmy Carter terrority yet.
On election night, some wondered whether Obama would be another FDR or JFK and whether the Democrats had to gotten their act together in terms of party unity and political smarts so that they’d be the majority party for a decade or more. You don’t hear that at the end of July — but, then, the conventional wisdom has a habit of trying to discreetly shove under the rug assertions made with such confidence once before (as we will if this post proves incorrect…).
UPDATE: As a reader notes in comments, this is a focus group — which is not the same as a larger poll. Does this meant he focus group is out of sync with the polls or the polls are missing something? It’s an interesting point — and we won’t know the definitive answer until a few more months down the road. But it could well be that Obama is a politician to whom some voters are more willing to give the benefit of the doubt and, if not that, a little more time. (Polls show erosion in the GOPers and independent voters who previously gave him high marks..)
14 Responses to “Obama’s Sagging Polls: Do They Tell The Whole Story?”
Gee Joe, I don't remember you being a shill for Bush when his poll numbers went down.
Joe: “Hope” can turn to “Nope” pretty quickly — but Obama isn’t in GWB or Jimmy Carter terrority yet.
Let's see, Obama has had some missteps (just like any other President) the Gates thing was just dumb, then add on the continued economic problems, which always pull down approval polls. I'm not surprised that his numbers are down. Sure there is things he's done that I don't like either, but I knew that would happen. We don't always get what we want in life in in candidates.
Heath care reform is stuck in Congress, which again is not surprising. I can't believe you or any one of the other political knowledgeable folks around here were blindsided with that.
Funny…a focus group of 12 people should make us doubt the polls that polled hundreds if not thousands of peope.
“They honeymoon is over but there are no signs of an impending divorce yet.”
Well said Joe.
LOL, shannonlee…bingo.
And really, I don't think those comments are inconsistent with the polling data anyway. Obama remains pretty popular personally; his policies, not so much.
The Gates thing was more than just dumb.
There were a lot of independents who voted for Obama primarily for the hope that he would bring in an era of post-racial feelings in the country. He ran his campaign using the race-neutral theme and made an implicit contract with the voters that he wasn’t like Rev. Wright or Jesse Jackson.
Then he broke the contract.
Obama lost that group who doesn’t care about policy and who doesn’t follow politics, all they know is that they saw him take sides against people just like them without even knowing the facts.
A beer doesn’t get them back. Ever.
It is not at all surprising that his poll numbers are down. It took Bush/Cheney/The Republicans eight years to destroy the economy but they expect Obama to turn it around in six months.
To all the people that say Obama is legitimate, I would like to know if your decision was based on faith or facts? If it’s faith, I’m not persuaded. If it’s based on facts, show them to the world so we can evaluate them for ourselves!
If Obama has a long-form, why doesn’t he show it? If he doesn’t have one, why not? People that hide things, usually have something to hide. He works for us. We have a right to know! We have a right to demand it!!!!!!!!!!!! We need to send a message to Obama and to EVERY OTHER POTENTIAL VIOLATOR OF OUR RULE OF LAW!!!!!!!!!!!
OBAMA, STOP HIDING. SHOW US THE LONG FORM BIRTH CERTIFICATE!!!!!
Birthers need to start demanding a new law to prove “natural-born” status for future presidential elections. Obama’s position on that legislation will “show his hand.”
losers don't want to lose.
losers can't stand to lose.
losers will do whatever it takes to try to beat down the winner.
the media loves a good story and the sheep follow.
deplorable level of consciousness in our country.
mariposa
Obama made a lot of promises that voters see he is not keeping. One is a promise to grant concurrent receipt to over 450,000 retired disabled veterans, 10-40% disabled, who are currently paying for their own disability. Obama proposed a partial solution to help 103,000 veterans in his 2010 budget proposal. But the Democratic Congres nixed that initiative. In the end both parities are against the issue of concurrent receipt, but Obama is the one who made the promise to have concurrent receipt taken care of immediately. In the end the result will be popularity down, truth evident, veterans deceived, and the look will continue for other promises not kept. People do listen when promises are made. People will remember they are not kept. End result. Decreased popularity……
Joe: “Hope” can turn to “Nope” pretty quickly — but Obama isn’t in GWB or Jimmy Carter terrority yet
Obama's polls will never go as low as Bush because liberals will never abandon Obama like conservatives did with Bush. Unless of course, Obama ends government takeovers of industry and starts reducing the size of government. Conservatives will still hate him because he's a lying scumbag and liberals will hate him because he abandoned their ideology.
My mind is made up, don't confuse me with the facts!
Obama is dunce!
Obama's approval ratings are worse than GWB's at the same time in his presidency and I doubt they will ever hit 92% like GWB had right after 9/11. Who would want to be president right now? I mean you are damned if you do and damned if you don't.
You can always count on the Obamamedia spinning and twisting themselves into knots for Obama.
Ergo a focus group (chosen how?) of 12 people in blue Maryland, run by a Democratic pollster, and pushed by the Washington Post and MSNBC tells the story more accurately than weeks of polling of multiple thousands of people.
We do know the definitive answer because poll after poll after poll from every major pollster and all showing the same thing is definitive: Obama is losing support more rapidly than most Presidents of the polling era and his numbers are quite average.