Assuming Judge Sotomayor had not been involved in the lower-court decision and thus would not have had to recuse herself from today’s vote, the 5-4 split on the New Haven case would still have been a 5-4 split.
Justice David Souter (whom Sotomayor would replace, if confirmed) voted with the other three dissenters: Ginsburg, Breyer, and Stevens.
So remind me, why does the right wing have its shorts tied in a knot about Sotomayor? She’s not replacing conservative stalwarts Thomas, Roberts, Alito, or Scalia. She’s not even replacing the swingvoting Kennedy.
Right-wing angst on this subject is nothing more than a dissent in search of an issue … where none exists.
It might even be 5-3 if she recused herself.
She would have recused herself.
The noteworthy thing with the ruling is that it wasn't against her (and that's not a disqualification issue for her insofar as her seat on the Court goes), but that it was 5-4, not stronger one way or the other.
Sotomayor has raised serious concerns with her remarks (not only with PC “identity politics” but with her joking about judicial activism, which has been a huge black mark on the entire judiciary and stain on the Court for decades), but she appears to be less of a threat than others who might have been chosen, and she has a strong record of experience, so she'll probably get the seat without too much fuss.
Besides, even if the Republicans did nothing at all, many on the Left would be moved to attack them, anyway, opposition or no opposition. Opposition to seating her would only add fuel to the fire (the details or nature of the opposition being irrelevent).
Even the dissenters let it be known that the 1 paragraph ruling by Sotomayor was inadequate, to say the least:
http://volokh.com/archives/archive_2009_06_28-2…
http://volokh.com/archives/archive_2009_06_28-2…
http://bench.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OTBhOTE…
And she would have had to recuse herself, and it would have been 5-3.