Christie Wins Primary, Cuomo Won’t Run
In New Jersey the Republican primary for governor has been won by former US attorney Chris Christie. This sets up a contest between Christie and the fairly unpopular Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine. New Jersey is one of two states to have a statewide election this fall.
The other is Virginia, where Democrats will choose a nominee at a primary on June 9th, the frontrunner being former DNC chair Terry McAuliffe. The winner will face off against Bob McDonnell who won the GOP nomination last week.
In New York, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo surprised many when he said he would not challenge incumbent Governor Paterson in the Democratic primary but stopped short of saying he would not run at all. Republicans are expected to nominate former NY Mayor Giuliani.
Currently Democrats hold all three seats and I would consider them at least even shot to keep them all.
In New Jersey polls suggest the GOP could win, but the state tends to be something of a political tease, tempting the Republicans with victory before sliding into an easy win for the Democrats.
In New York, if Paterson does stay in the race then Giuliani has a chance, though I would still consider it a 50/50 contest between the two. If Paterson steps down (or is pushed out) then Cuomo is likely to run and win with ease.
In Virginia the GOP has the best chance, especially if the Democratic primary leaves bad feelings. Over the past couple decades the party out of the White House has tended to win the Governors race. But the state has been trending to the Democrats so I do not rule them out.
As a side note there will also be a special election in the NY 23rd House District after the incumbent becomes Secretary of the Army in the Obama administration. It’s currently held by the GOP and has a slight GOP tilt but given the swath of blue in the Northeast I would expect this to be competitive as well.