LIES, DAMN LIES, AND STATISTICS

It is important for every American to understand demographics on the eve of our next constitutionally-mandated decennial census. How many of us live here and there, and where we live, decide the political, economic and social decisions of every politician, business leader, and many individuals and families. They determine the make-up of Congress and the national and state elections for at least a decade. MOst importantly, they are the basis for most of the formulas on how federal spending is allocated across the country.

The 50 largest U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas contain over 160 million Americans who live in the central cities and their surrounding suburbs. (A complete list is provided at the end of this blog for your reference.) These 50 cities and suburbs constitute more than half of the entire U.S. population. While we rhapsodize endlessly about small-town America, very few of us really live there except in our fantasies.

While the top 50 have remained about the same over the past 20 years, the order between the metro areas has changed significantly during the same 2 decades. Fortunately, 40 of these cities and their surrounding suburbs have grown steadily at varying rates. Ten of them have shrunk significantly in size over the past 10 years, including Detroit, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Buffalo, to name the most prominent population losers. Alternatively, some of the biggest population gainers have been cities in the South and West such as Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, Phoenix, San Antonio, Las Vegas and Miami.

Washington DC and its Virginia and Maryland Suburbs now constitute the 8th largest U.S. Metro area at around 5.4 million total people, ranking it just behind Miami and above Atlanta. The Phoenix area is now almost as large as San Francisco and the Bay Area and just about the size of continually-shrinking Detroit and its SE Michigan suburbs.

Comparing the top 50 metro areas with the 2008 Presidential election, only 10 of them were reliably Republican country, and some of the central cities in the Republican metro areas were actually majority Democratic cities. Pollsters, demographers and many political analysts have not found any trends indicating that Republicans will make any advances in any of the top 50 U.S. metro areas. This probably suggests that the Republican Party may go the way of Federalists and Whigs, and become a former national political party.

Fewer than 20 of these top U.S. Metro areas have good intercity Amtrak passenger train service. About 25 of these areas have a mix of subway, light rail, heavy rail and commuter train service, though about 10 have only one modest rail system in place. Amazingly enough the other 25 have no rail mass transit and rely principally upon a bus system and private autos for commuting within the area.

These transportation generalizations have involved some subjective analysis. Objectively if they were compared to similarly-sized European and Asian cities, the intercity and metro rail service of more than 40 of our U.S. metro areas would be deemed to be embarrassingly poor despite similar geographic sizes and urban sprawl conditions. Interestingly enough, 36 of these metro areas are part of the Obama Administration’s new intercity high-speed rail initiative.

All our major Universities are all located in or near these 50 top metro areas. Scientific and technological innovation, plus job growth will naturally occur in these same places. Most of our nation’s energy resources will be consumed by these 50 large areas but will be produced elsewhere. Linking energy producers with energy users will be a future issue for this country.

The top 10 metro areas have dominated and will dominate our nation’s culture, media, economy and political discourse. They are New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Philadelphia, Houston, Miami, Washington DC, Atlanta and Boston. The decisions of their business, civic and political leaders have nationwide and sometimes international impact. The smallest, Boston, has almost 4.5 million inhabitants, and the critical mass of highly educated citizens to make a global impact. The other 9 largest metro areas have even more clout nationally and internationally.

Something important happens to a metro area when it is around 2 to 2.5 million inhabitants. That appears to be the tipping point of economic “critical mass.” Those with more than 2.5 million in total population have an easier time encouraging new businesses and entrepreneurs, and being strong magnets for new immigrants from other U.S. cities and foreign countries. Denver is on the cusp of that group as the 21st largest metro area at 2.4 million and still growing strong. Just on the opposite side and declining quickly are such cities as Pittsburgh and Cleveland that were once part of the elite of American cities, though smaller and growing cities of Orlando, San Antonio, Kansas City and Las Vegas are moving in the opposite direction for a variety of different reasons.

This brief summary is not designed to be an all-encompassing description of our 50 largest U.S. metro areas. It is instead just a starting point for future analysis, discussion and debate. Readers of TMV are strongly encouraged to contribute their ideas and observations.

5/12/09 by Marc Pascal in Phoenix, AZ.

Rank – Metropolitan Statistical Area – 2007 Popopulation
1 – NEW YORK, NY/NJ, 18,815,988
2 – Los Angeles, CA, 12,875,587
3 – Chicago, IL, 9,524,673
4 – Dallas-Fort Worth, TX, 6,145,037
5 – Philadelphia, PA, 5,827,962
6 – Houston, TX, 5,628,101
7 – Miami-Fort Lauderdale, FL, 5,413,212
8 – Washington, DC/VA/MD, 5,306,565
9 – Atlanta, GA, 5,278,904
10 – Boston, MA, 4,482,857
11 – Detroit, MI (declining pop 1), 4,467,592
12 – San Francisco-Oakland, CA, 4,203,898
13 – Phoenix, AZ, 4,179,427
14 – Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA, 4,081,371
15 – Seattle, WA, 3,309,347
16 – Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN, 3,208,212
17 – San Diego, CA, 2,974,859
18 – St. Louis, MO, 2,808,611
19 – Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL, 2,723,949
20 – Baltimore, MD (declining pop 2), 2,668,056
21 – Denver, CO, 2,464,866
22 – Pittsburgh, PA (declining pop 3), 2,355,712
23 – Portland, OR, 2,175,113
24 – Cincinnati, OH, 2,133,678
25 – Cleveland, OH (declining pop 4), 2,096,471
26 – Sacramento, CA, 2,091,120
27 – Orlando, FL, 2,032,496
28 – San Antonio, TX, 1,990,675
29 – Kansas City, MO-KS, 1,985,429
30 – Las Vegas, NV, 1,836,333
31 – San Jose, CA, 1,803,643
32 – Columbus, OH, 1,754,337
33 – Indianapolis, IN, 1,695,037
34 – Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA, 1,658,754
35 – Charlotte, NC, 1,651,568
36 – Providence, RI (declining pop 5), 1,600,856
37 – Austin, TX, 1,598,161
38 – Milwaukee, WI (declining pop 6), 1,544,398
39 – Nashville, TN, 1,521,437
40 – Jacksonville, FL, 1,300,823
41 – Memphis, TN, 1,280,533
42 – Louisville, KY, 1,233,735
43 – Richmond, VA, 1,212,977
44 – Oklahoma City, OK, 1,192,989
45 – Hartford, CT, 1,189,113
46 – Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY (declining pop 7), 1,128,183
47 – Birmingham, AL, 1,108,210
48 – Salt Lake City, UT, 1,099,973
49 – Raleigh, NC, 1,047,629
50 – Rochester, NY (declining pop 8), 1,030,495