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Independents Flee Obama on Gun Control, Abortion in New Pew Poll

Posted by GREG PIPER in Politics, Society.
May 2nd, 2009 | Comments

The Pew Research Center has a very interesting new survey on attitudes toward gun control and abortion after President Barack Obama took office. Within the space of a year, views that were once firmly in the majority for both gun control and broadly-legal abortion are now nearly neck-and-neck – and it’s not just the choir getting preachier:

The balance of opinion among independents has changed substantially over the past year. In April 2008, a majority of independents (56%) said it was more important to control gun ownership; currently, independents are divided, with 48% saying it is more important to protect gun rights and 45% saying it is more important to control gun ownership. …

There has been notable decline in the proportion of independents saying abortion should be legal in most or all cases; majorities of independents favored legal abortion in August and the two October surveys, but just 44% do so today. In addition, the proportion of moderate and liberal Republicans saying abortion should be legal declined between August and late October (from 67% to 57%). In the current survey, just 43% of moderate and liberal Republicans say abortion should legal in most or all cases.

I think what this shows is what I’ve called the grace period that independents are giving Obama. They understand that he’s in the most unenviable position of any incoming president in 50 years, and as a result continue to give Obama high poll numbers. Even as the government creeps toward nationalizing industries, it’s seen as the lesser of two evils. But Obama seems to have actually increased polarization on a set of issues about which he’s said virtually nothing since taking office. Perhaps he should talk more about them. Call it the Reverse Biden.

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kariq

I believe that you are overlooking one point. There are more independents now than there were in 2008, and the bulk of those independents are former Republicans who are more likely to be opposed to gun control and in favor of restrictions on abortion. I think the shift in independents is probably a reflection of former Republicans making independents a more conservative group than the used to be rather than Obama "polarizing" independent's opinion.

CStanley

kariq, I agree with that to an extent but it's still just looking at the same phenomenon from a different vantage point. The fact is, regardless of what you call this group, you have to consider whether or not they're going to continue supporting Obama and if his positions are left wing with no move toward the center (let alone accomodating their potentially more right wing positions on these issues) then he may not keep them in his camp

So it may not be accurate to say that he's polarizing them, if the polarity was already there- but at the same time it may be correct to say that he's not been effective in neutralizing the polarity as some people thought he would.

GeorgeSorwell

I was going to say what Kariq said: All those Independents are people who stopped being Republicans.

Polimom

I agree with kariq and GeorgeSorwell. This came up in the "what's a moderate" thread, where HemmD asked what the difference is between a moderate and an independent.

Recent polls showing the diminishing numbers of self-identified GOP have shown a corresponding increase in self-identified independents. I'm not at all surprised by this poll.

Rudi

GP Cherry picks a single poll and tries to justify that conservatives aren't on life support. Well this poll shows Obamama in Reagan country:
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1200/obama-100-days...
Will the Nation or Kossacks call for Reagans removal from Mount Rushmore and replace the Gipper with BO?

Panza

Good analysis, kariq. The Republican brand is in the crapper, quite frankly. Its a hard-earned distinction, IMO.

Despite the anti-choice flier, I think there's a general libertarian shift on other issues like gay marriage and legalization of marijuana.....and of course gun control. This isn't the first poll to reflect a decline in the support for gun control, and an increasing support for pro-RKBA. Here's an recent ABC/WaPo poll on the subject:

"For the first time in ABC/Post polls a clear majority of Americans, 57 percent, don't think stricter gun laws would in fact reduce violent crime. And 61 percent – a new high, and again the first substantial majority – say enforcement of existing gun laws would accomplish more than passing new, stricter ones. "

http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Obama100days/...

Another one from Gallup:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/117361/Recent-Shooti...

Between last year's Heller decision, and the tanking economy, people want their RKBA protected.

This isn't lost on the President, he's removed all mention of gun control from the Whitehouse.gov website......no "assault weapons" ban, no "childproofing," etc. Its all gone.

gregpiper

Rudi, your poll would seem to lend support to my grace-period theory more than show conservatives are on life support. It shows that basically, Obama hasn't screwed up yet, and he's playing the hand he's been dealt. But it doesn't say anything about people's core political beliefs. I'm not trying to cherry pick a poll - it showed a rather sudden reversal after years of strong majority support on two contentious issues.

mtj56

He just removed it from the web site so it is not as prevalant. BUT IT IS STILL ONE OF HIS MAIN GOALS!

Panza

Yeah, I'm sure Obama would love a new AWB if he could get one, it'd be a feather in his cap.

Politically, however, he knows trying to pass a new AWB would be a titanic fight, a fight he'd surely lose right now. Their would be no oxygen available in Washington to discuss tax reform, health care reform, or addressing carbon emissions. If he stirred up the gun debate now, he'd probably have trouble replacing Souter on the SCOTUS.(remember, there are a lot more pro-gun Democrats than in 1994)

I think he removed the gun control section from the WH website to deny the NRA of something that's proven to a pretty good fundraiser, as well as a great sales campaign for guns and ammo

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